By Emma Ujah, Abuja Bureau Chief
Dr. Paul Alaje, a renowned economist, has warned that Nigeria’s economy faces serious danger unless the administration of President Bola Ahmed Tinubu urgently engages the United States government diplomatically following President Donald Trump’s threat of military action against Nigeria.
Trump issued the warning after alleging genocide against Christians in Nigeria, accusing the Nigerian government of failing to protect Christians and other vulnerable citizens, particularly in the northern part of the country.
Speaking at a press conference in Abuja on Tuesday ahead of the 2025 Paul Alaje Colloquium (TPACOLLOQUIUM) scheduled for November 15, Dr. Alaje said the economic implications of such a threat should not be underestimated.
This year’s colloquium is themed: “Breaking the Cycle: How Nigeria Can Lead Africa from Poverty to Prosperity.”
Economic Impact Already Showing
Dr. Alaje cautioned that even the perception of possible military action could destabilise the Nigerian economy, noting the bearish performance recorded on the Nigerian Stock Exchange the previous day.
He said: “Most people are focusing on the security implications, but like COVID-19, the real target is not health — it is the economy. Inflation is expected to rise. Our foreign reserves are at $42 billion, which is significant considering where we’re coming from. But if this threat persists, reserves may fall because people are already moving their money away from stocks to safer environments.
“People must understand that in economics, perception is more important than reality. No bomb has been dropped in Nigeria, yet the panic mode has started.”
Building Confidence Is Key
He urged both government and citizens to work to restore investor confidence: “Our job as Nigerians is to raise confidence. This is not the time to condemn the government. When heaven falls, it falls on everyone.
“This is the time for all respected voices — journalists, influencers, religious leaders, civic figures — to speak with one voice about Nigeria’s stability.”
Citing recent action by the U.S. in the Middle East, he added: “In Iran, many thought a tweet by the American president was just a tweet — until it was carried out. I hope and pray this will not be Nigeria’s story. If the threat is carried out, unemployment will rise, poverty will rise, and all macroeconomic indicators, including GDP, will suffer.”
FG Must Engage U.S. Diplomatically
Dr. Alaje urged the Federal Government to intensify diplomatic engagement with both the U.S. envoy in Nigeria and policymakers in Washington, D.C.
“Although the presidency has issued responses, I believe the executive is doing more behind the scenes — including engagement with the American envoy and authorities in Washington.
“America also has strong allies in the Gulf of Guinea. Nigeria should leverage its own ties in the region to gain diplomatic footing and help influence President Trump’s stance.”
He stressed that a positive shift in the U.S. president’s tone could immediately boost Nigeria’s economy: “If President Trump changes his message to ‘Nigeria is safe,’ you will witness inflows of investment like never before because he is, quote and unquote, the number one citizen of the world — leading the largest economy and the strongest security apparatus.”
Govt Must Act Against Terrorists
He urged the federal government to take decisive action against terrorists to demonstrate that it is not complicit in the killing of innocent Christians and other victims across Nigeria.
The post Trump’s Threat: Nigeria’s economy at risk unless… — Alaje appeared first on Vanguard News.
