President Donald Trump is ratcheting up pressure on Republicans to redraw congressional maps across the country, going as far as weighing a primary challenge to New Hampshire Gov. Kelly Ayotte if she continues avoiding a remapping effort in her state.
The warning — first divulged to POLITICO by a top national Republican familiar with the White House’s thinking — marks the latest example of Trump’s team threatening consequences for politicians hesitant to engage in the party’s aggressive push to redesign the makeup of the House ahead of next year’s midterms.
Ayotte, the rare Republican with an independent streak, has dodged redistricting despite some support in the state Legislature. She did not respond to a request for comment. In Indiana, Trump’s team is exploring repercussions for Republicans who don’t support its remapping effort that’s being backed by GOP Gov. Mike Braun.
“The base is onto this. If you are a Republican perceived to be in the way of Republicans, there could very well be consequences,” said the national Republican official, granted anonymity to discuss ongoing conversations, adding that the White House expects every GOP state that could redraw its map to do so.
And Adam Kincaid, president of the National Republican Redistricting Trust and cartographer of some redrawn maps, said, “the base is saying, ‘hey, you should be doing this,’ and politicians are responding in kind. It’s kind of politics 101.”
The expanded pressure from the White House comes as Club for Growth Action, a high-profile conservative group, is launching a digital ad targeting North Carolina as it ramps up pressure on fellow Republicans. If Democrats keep all their House seats next year, they need to net just three to retake control over the House for the final two years of Trump’s term.
The North Carolina spot is part of a $1 million effort from the super PAC to pressure lawmakers into redistricting. It follows ads it has run in Indiana, Kansas — where the GOP is eyeing a redraw — and Missouri, where a redesigned map is in place with legal challenges. The PAC is looking to target Florida and Kentucky next, according to plans shared with POLITICO, where state legislatures seem primed to jump in.
Taken together, the new pressure campaign from Trump and outside groups shows the party’s desperation to cling to its razor-thin majority next year.
Trump’s redistricting gambit has swept the country, presenting the opportunity for his party to add as many as 18 House seats across nine states. That effort could be somewhat offset by California’s potential five-seat pickup for Democrats if voters approve Gov. Gavin Newsom’s new maps in November, and Utah must create a more competitive seat after a recent court ruling. Democrats have filed legal challenges in every state that has passed a map.
Republicans are presenting resistance in Nebraska, New Hampshire and Indiana.
Nevertheless, Trump’s demands are emerging as the latest loyalty test for the president, and GOP lawmakers are beginning to fall in line. For instance, Texas congressional Republicans had expressed concerns about a redrawing of their map until a pressure campaign from the White House.
“I could see an ad where a vote against redistricting becomes a vote against President Trump and his agenda,” said David McIntosh, Club for Growth Action’s president, who sees the redistricting push as inching up on the list of GOP litmus tests.
Even though the squeeze is on, some remaining red states face institutional and political difficulties in revising their maps.
In Nebraska, Republicans can’t afford to lose a single vote in the unicameral state Legislature, and one lawmaker — who also bucked a GOP effort to change the way Nebraska’s Electoral College votes are allocated — has already voiced his opposition.
“I’m not a real fan of changing things at the last minute,” 83-year-old state Sen. Merv Riepe said earlier this month. “Because what goes around comes around.”
Last week, North Carolina Senate Leader Phil Berger indicated his openness to redraw the congressional maps, citing “what’s going on in California” as his reasoning. Berger denied a local news report that he was pursuing it in exchange for an endorsement from Trump in his primary, where he faces a serious challenger.
“I don’t know what else you call it but a ‘loyalty test.’ They have to do it because they don’t want to be attacked by the president,” said a North Carolina Republican operative granted anonymity to discuss the issue candidly. “A lot of legislators tell you privately that they don’t want to do it, that it is silly, but they’re going to fold.”
The White House’s push has forced GOP state lawmakers to grapple with which path is riskier — taking up a push polling shows is broadly unpopular in both parties, or angering the Republican base for being insufficiently loyal to Trump.
“It’s clearly become a litmus test issue for the White House. And as a result, there’s a lot of saber rattling that is unlikely to result in consequential action,” said an Indiana state lawmaker, granted anonymity to speak freely. “At some point you have to look at how much political capital are people willing to expend for very marginal potential gains?”
Some Republicans privately worry they risk pushing the redistricting cause too far and triggering a backlash among moderate voters for single-seat gains. A majority of independent voters disapproved of Texas redrawing its congressional districts, according to an August poll conducted by YouGov.
“It’s going to start costing us a lot of support in the middle,” said a national Republican consultant, granted anonymity to discuss the issue candidly. “At some point, this will be counterproductive. I don’t know if we can redistrict our way out of a bad cycle.”
