Secretary of State Marco Rubio is privately telling confidants that JD Vance is the frontrunner for the 2028 Republican nomination and that he’d support the vice president if he chose to run, according to two people close to the administration.
Rubio’s private comments are a vivid example of how some Republicans are already gaming out a post-Trump succession battle, less than one year into the president’s term.
“Marco has been very clear that JD is going to be the Republican nominee if he wants to be,” said a person close to the secretary, noting that Rubio has expressed that sentiment privately and publicly.
“He will do anything he can just to support the vice president in that effort,” said the person close to Rubio, who was granted anonymity to share the secretary of state’s private conversations.
President Donald Trump has repeatedly named Vance and Rubio as his two most likely successors, even suggesting last week that the pair should run on the same ticket. Both men have insisted they are good friends and there is no rivalry, even as speculation grows over who can inherit the MAGA mantle.
“No one expects Marco to resign from the Cabinet and start taking potshots at the sitting vice president,” said a second person familiar with the dynamic and granted anonymity to discuss the highly sensitive situation. “Beyond that, they’re friends.”
A third person close to the White House, granted anonymity to speak candidly, said the “expectation is JD as [nominee] and Rubio as VP.”
Vance is the leading favorite among those who voted for Trump in 2024, according to a new POLITICO Poll conducted Oct. 18-21. Thirty-five percent say he’s the person they’d most like to see run for president in 2028.
By contrast, just 2 percent named Rubio in response to the open-ended question — a format that tends to favor lawmakers with strong name recognition. Sixteen percent said they either don’t know who they’d like to see run in 2028 or nobody, while 28 percent said Trump.
While a Vance/Rubio pairing could help solidify the two as Trump’s chosen successors, the POLITICO polls show the tremendous amount of work they’d need to do with voters who don’t have a candidate in mind – or prefer the current president for a third term.
The question of succession is especially relevant following Tuesday’s election results in which the GOP underperformed, leading to widespread concern that without Trump himself on the ballot, Republicans are unable to generate enough enthusiasm to win.
James Blair, Trump’s political director for his 2024 presidential campaign, advised any 2028 contenders to first think about the midterm elections.
“If you’re a Republican that wants to run in 2028 right now, you need to focus on keeping Republicans in power for 2026. I think the number one thing everybody can do is focus on the team and helping their team and not focus on themselves,” Blair told Dasha Burns for POLITICO’s “The Conversation.”
“Voters will sniff out anybody who has seemed to be sort of focused on themselves,” said Blair, who now serves as deputy chief of staff.
This summer, Health and Human Services Secretary Robert F. Kennedy Jr. was compelled to take himself out of 2028 contention after far-right activist Laura Loomer told POLITICO she was concerned that Kennedy’s senior aidewas trying to “utilize her position to try to lay the groundwork for a 2028 RFK presidential run.”
Other cabinet members including Secretary of the Interior Doug Burgum and Director of National Intelligence Tulsi Gabbard have sought the top job before.
But no one in Trump’s orbit is thought to have as serious a shot to win his support as Vance and Rubio.
Vance, as vice president, and Rubio, who ran for president in 2016, are natural choices to succeed Trump. The two men have downplayed any hint of conflict and administration officials insist the potential rivals are close confidants. Their policy discussions often include Susie Wiles, Trump’s chief of staff, who hosts them in her office ahead of key discussions with the president.
Rubio, who has publicly stated that Vance “would be a great nominee” could, of course, change his mind, and join a long line of presidential candidates who have shifted course. The 2028 election is still far off, and polling and the midterm results will change the field.
A State Department spokesperson and Vance’s team declined to comment.
Rubio and Vance were Senate colleagues where the two ate lunch together, talked about movies and national defense. They worked on bills together, including The William S. Knudsen Defense Remobilization Act that called for a national strategy to revitalize defense production.
A former 2016 Rubio presidential campaign staffer said they “wouldn’t be surprised” if the secretary was open to being Vance’s vice president, especially given how much Rubio has focused on pushing policy since his loss nearly a decade ago.
Rubio was instrumental in leading the Paycheck Protection Program when the Covid-19 pandemic hit and was a key supporter of Trump’s in his first term on foreign policy in the Americas, including tightening the screws on the Cuban regime.
Vance said last week he has “joked” about him and Rubio being on the same ticket for 2028, but that it is too early to tell. “There’s not going to be any tension,” on who will be on top of the ticket, Vance said on the New York Post’s “Pod Force One” podcast.
A White House ally cautioned that there was no “new” movement on that front, but that things “probably won’t start heating up again until after the new year.”
On the Post podcast Vance described Rubio as his “best friend in the administration.”
“During our private lunches, we try to get lunch every couple weeks just to catch up on what’s going on and talk about things,” Vance added, noting that Trump “mentioned” the possibility of a joint ticket “six months ago.”
“I mentioned it to the secretary in jest, but it feels so premature, because we’re still so early,” Vance said.
Erin Doherty contributed to this report.
