Roy Cooper broke fundraising records in his first 24 hours as a Senate candidate — a massive cash boost the former North Carolina governor will need for what’s expected to become one of the most expensive statewide campaigns in U.S. history.
National and North Carolina strategists from both parties said the race — likely between Cooper and Republican National Committee chair Michael Whatley, who has President Donald Trump’s endorsement — could be one of the costliest Senate races in the 2026 midterms, topping out at $650 to $800 million, according to private estimates described by both parties. That would crack the previous national record set by the 2022 Georgia Senate race, which cost nearly $500 million.
“You have a two-time governor, now seeking the U.S. Senate, running against, essentially, the RNC, so both candidates, both parties, are going to bring a lot of money to this race,” said Democratic state Sen. Jay Chaudhuri. “Not since Jesse Helms versus Jim Hunt [in the 1984 Senate race] have you had two such national prominent candidates run against each other.”
Democrats, locked out of power at every level in Washington, see North Carolina as their top offensive target as they make a longshot play to regain control over the Senate while fighting to reclaim the House. The race instantly became more competitive when Cooper, Democrats’ top recruit, entered the race this week with some serious advantages, having won the state six times as governor and attorney general.
The early contours of the race, upended by Sen. Thom Tillis’ decision to not run for reelection last month, are coming into focus as the campaigns preview their messages and attacks in digital ads. Cooper went after Republicans for cutting Medicaid, “disrespecting” veterans and raising the national debt in his launch video. And since he and Whatley are both expected to clear their respective primary fields, the race is fast-forwarding into a marquee general election contest.
Even Republicans acknowledge Cooper’s “pretty good track record as governor,” Tillis told reporters Monday night.
But, Tillis said, “he’s not invulnerable.”
“We’ve just got to match up and beat him,” Tillis said. “I don’t want to see this seat be taken by a Democrat.”
Republicans argued that Cooper won’t be able to translate his middle-of-the-road brand and aw-shucks demeanor into a successful federal campaign, which traditionally centers around more partisan issues.
Other governors haven’t been able to repackage themselves for the Senate, including former Govs. Steve Bullock of Montana and Phil Bredesen of Tennessee, both of whom failed to flip their red-leaning states in 2020 and 2018, respectively. Former Gov. Larry Hogan, a Republican, also flopped in turning Maryland blue last year. But governors from battleground states tend to fare better when making the jump, like New Hampshire Sen. Maggie Hassan, who won her seat in 2018.
In a statement, National Republican Senatorial Committee spokesperson Joanna Rodriguez said Cooper “is about to join a very long list of Democrat governors who tried and failed to be elected to the U.S. Senate when their support for radical Democrat policies was finally exposed.”
Senate Leadership Fund, the super PAC closely aligned with GOP Senate leadership, is already leaning into that message with a $200,000 digital ad buy labeling Cooper as “Radical Roy,” who they said “masquerades as a moderate” but is “just another radical D.C. liberal in disguise.”
“Higher taxes, sanctuary cities and a radical gender ideology,” one digital ad said. “He says he’s a moderate, but Roy Cooper’s record tells a radically different story.”
Privately, however, some North Carolina Republicans acknowledge the former governor “has the benefit of being, in the eyes of a lot of swing voters, the good ole boy from Rocky Mount, [N.C.], who they’ve known for 30 years and, so far, nobody’s been able to effectively message against that on the Republican side,” said one GOP strategist, granted anonymity to discuss the issue candidly.
Republicans must also push back on Tillis’ own concerns that “the Medicaid cuts are a guillotine swinging over Republican necks right now,” the strategist continued, which “if they end up being half as bad as Tillis says, that could be enough for Cooper to get over the finish line.”
Tillis denounced Trump’s megabill before its passage, attacking Republicans for “betray[ing] the promise Donald Trump made” to voters and warning that 660,000 North Carolinians could lose their healthcare. Tillis voted against it, prompting Trump to threaten Tillis with a primary challenge. The next day, Tillis announced he wouldn’t run for reelection.
That’s an opening Democrats are looking to exploit. Cooper, along with the Republican-controlled legislature, expanded Medicaid in 2023. In an MSNBC interview Monday night, Cooper said it was “such a contrast in this race,” emphasizing that “Washington Republicans are going to strip it away.”
“Cooper staked his career on expanding Medicaid and 650,000 North Carolinians have it now because of him. He can work across the aisle to find solutions,” said Morgan Jackson, Cooper’s top political strategist. “I’m not sure Michael Whatley has met a swing voter, much less had a conversation with one.”
Whatley, who hasn’t formally launched his campaign, has his own hurdles. He’s a first-time candidate who has never run for office, so he’ll need a lot of money to build up his name recognition. Whatley, who served as the RNC chair and led the North Carolina GOP state party, comes with the full backing of Trump’s political machine, after Trump’s daughter-in-law Lara Trump ultimately passed on the seat.
Trump’s seal of approval and the RNC donor network “may give Whatley enough money to turn Cooper into a generic Democrat,” said a second North Carolina Republican operative, granted anonymity to discuss the race candidly. “But nobody knows who Whatley is either.”
“It’s all going to come down to the money, and who can define who first,” the operative added.
Calen Razor contributed to this report.
