In March, 10 Senate Democrats gave Republicans the votes they needed to avoid a government shutdown. What the GOP did afterward guaranteed they won’t do that again lightly.
Democrats reasoned the last time that the timing was wrong for a big fight with Trump, who was just a month into his second term, and they didn’t yet have a unifying demand to organize a shutdown around.
Two things then happened. The Democratic grassroots responded angrily, telling their representatives that they wanted them to fight back against Trump harder. And Republicans continued caving to Trump.
A key moment came when Trump used rescission — essentially breaking the law passed by Congress directing him to spend money on certain programs, including the Corporation for Public Broadcasting — and then asked Republican lawmakers to pass a bill giving him the OK after the fact.
Democrats tell me that the GOP’s decision to go along with rescission meant they were disregarding all of the bipartisan work that had gone into those spending bills.
“When Democrats did the responsible thing, Republicans just kind of threw it in our face,” an aide to a Senate Democrat who voted for the continuing resolution in March told me this week. “Republicans had an opportunity to do the right thing, but they chose to side with Trump on rescissions and turn their backs on bipartisan spending agreements.”
That set us on the path to a shutdown in the coming weeks.
Since the summer, senior Democrats have met to talk through how to take a stand when the next funding deadline comes. But they aren’t just angry. They also see Trump’s sinking approval numbers and low ratings for the One Big Beautiful Bill Act, his signature legislative accomplishment. In other words, the political timing may be right for a showdown.
That just leaves the question of what to demand. There again, the timing is right. Additional subsidies created during the Covid pandemic for health insurance sold on the Obamacare exchanges are set to expire at the end of the year. If they aren’t extended, voters will start seeing sharp price increases in the coming weeks, putting health insurance out of reach for millions.
Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer and House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries agree that health care is their best demand in return for ending a shutdown, a kitchen-table issue that shows them fighting for everyday Americans and puts Republican on the back foot.
“It helps them in Middle America,” longtime Democratic pollster Cornell Belcher said. “I think it helps them with their base who wants to see Democrats push back, fight and take on Trump and Republicans. Or at least try to get in the way of what they’re doing.”
Belcher notes that Republicans have played a key role in several shutdowns in recent years and paid little price politically. And he notes that Democrats have a simple message: “Donald Trump told Republicans not to negotiate. Donald Trump canceled a meeting to negotiate. And they did it because they don’t want to shore up your health care.”
Republicans have a harder lift. Americans know they have the steering wheel of government in D.C., they have a president who has told the country that he can fix everything himself. So explaining to those same folks that they couldn’t keep the government open isn’t easy.
For now, the Trump administration’s big strategic move was to send out a memo pledging to fire thousands of federal workers in the event of a shutdown. This would be a stronger threat if it weren’t for the fact that Trump already did this without a shutdown, and then had to hire back a large number of the workers when it turned out he needed those jobs done after all.
The rescissions also hurt Trump’s negotiating position. In the past, a president might have been able to make a promise about some future concessions to avoid a confrontation, but Trump and Republicans in Congress have shown they’ll go back on a deal, which steels Democrats to stand together.
Still, nobody knows what will happen once voters start paying attention or begin to feel the impact.
Both sides are dug in right now, but one senior Democratic strategist who worked in the Biden White House on legislative matters told me that a path forward doesn’t start materializing until 72 hours before a possible shutdown because lawmakers “don’t feel pressure yet.”
“Once you start getting into 48, 24 hours out and you start hearing from constituents, that’s when things start getting a little funky,” he said.
Democrats think the voters will be on their side this time. Their reasoning is that it’s time to get caught fighting instead of doing what they’ve done for years: be the adults in the room and help Republicans keep the government open.
For more thought-provoking insights from Eugene Daniels, watch “The Weekend” every Saturday and Sunday from 7 to 10 a.m. ET on MSNBC.
This article was originally published on MSNBC.com
