For decades, Nigeria’s middle class symbolised stability, aspiration and economic balance, families that could afford decent housing, educate their children, access healthcare and still save for the future.
Today, however that sense of security is rapidly slipping away.
Rising inflation, weak purchasing power and soaring living costs are steadily pushing millions of middle-income Nigerians toward poverty.
According to the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS), about 133 million Nigerians are now multi dimensionally poor, a staggering figure that has intensified fears about the near disappearance of the country’s middle class.
The World Bank projects an even grimmer outlook, warning that Nigeria’s poverty rate could climb to 62 per cent by 2026, leaving an estimated 141 million people trapped in hardship.
Once the backbone of consumption, investment and job creation, the middle class, estimated at just 23 per cent of the population by the African Development Bank (AfDB), is increasingly unable to withstand the pressure of inflation, fuel subsidy removal, naira devaluation and rising utility costs.
As food prices soar, transport fares surge and rent and electricity bills climb, a lifestyle that once felt secure is becoming painfully fragile.
What was once a bridge between the rich and the poor is now collapsing, threatening not only household stability but the wider Nigerian economy itself.
In Nigeria, the middle class typically comprises individuals earning between N300,000 and N1.5 million monthly.
This group is further divided into the lower middle class, earning between N300,000 and N500,000, and the upper middle class, earning N800,000 to N1.5 million per month.
They are mostly educated professionals across public and private sectors, civil servants, bankers, teachers, doctors, lawyers and small and medium-scale entrepreneurs.
For decades, they have served as economic stabilisers, bridging the gap between the wealthy elite and the millions living in poverty, while driving consumption, investment and job creation.
But that stabilising force is weakening fast.
Only a few years ago, a monthly income of N500,000 to N1.5 million could support a relatively stable lifestyle modest cars, school fees, decent housing, healthcare and some savings for emergencies.
Today, even those earning within this range struggle to afford basic necessities.
Food now consumes a disproportionate share of household income.
Transportation costs have surged, rent has doubled in some cities and electricity tariffs, alongside other essential bills, continue to rise.
Mr. Abdullahi Yusuf, a civil servant, says the erosion of the middle class worsened after the Federal Government removed petrol subsidy and floated the naira in 2023.
“As civil servants, who constitute the bulk of the middle class, our take-home pay can no longer take us home.
“Every perceived essential commodity has become a luxury,” he said.
A banker, Mrs. Dupe Alao, echoes the same frustration. She describes a once-comfortable middle class now forced to stretch every Naira.
“Chicken and fresh meat have become occasional treats. “Fruits and vegetables are no longer daily staples.
“Even simple comforts like eating out or weekend treats for children are now luxuries,” she said.
According to her, school fees and healthcare, once routine expenses, now require careful planning or are delayed altogether.
Single-income households can no longer cope, forcing spouses and adult children to take on extra jobs just to survive.
Entrepreneurs are not spared. Mr. Gbenga Oduwaiye, who runs a logistics and transportation business, said inflation spiked sharply after fuel subsidy removal, driving up the cost of transport, spare parts and rent.
“We increased salaries, but our operating costs exploded.
At one point, we had to lay off two drivers because we couldn’t afford to pay them,” he says.
According to him, multiple taxes, high spare-part costs and bank charges are suffocating small businesses.
“Companies that used to make N400,000 to N500,000 monthly are now struggling to make N200,000,” he said
Economist and agro consultant, Mr. Sunday Peter, described inflation as the central force shrinking the middle class.
He explains that people who once paid their bills comfortably, saved and invested can no longer meet basic needs.
“The middle class earns from the system and redistributes wealth through investment and job creation,
“They employ people, pay taxes and support essential services. When they shrink, unemployment rises, poverty deepens and society collapses into only rich and poor.,
Peter noted that while the elite often invest outside Nigeria, the middle class remained the main driver of domestic small and medium-scale enterprises (SMEs).
To revive the middle class, experts agree that government must prioritise inflation control and cost-of-living reductions.
Peter advocated temporary import support to stabilise prices, followed by incentives for local investment in agriculture and manufacturing. He also stresses the need for policy consistency and long-term planning.
Another economist, Mr. Ephraim Audu, attributes the decline to inflation, Naira devaluation and fuel subsidy removal.
He called for short-term measures such as food subsidies, decentralised national food banks and expanded cash-transfer programmes.
Audu also recommends stabilising the Naira through special Central Bank forex windows for essential imports, targeted employment programmes and intervention grants for agribusinesses.
For the medium term, he proposed tax reforms, single-digit loans for SMEs, nationwide skills acquisition centres and mortgage system reforms.
In the long run, he urged economic diversification beyond oil, improved infrastructure, inclusive urban planning, stronger financial inclusion and tougher anti-corruption measures.
He also warned that insecurity remains a major threat to economic activity, calling for decisive action in affected regions.
As Nigeria grapples with rising poverty and economic uncertainty, the fate of its middle class may well determine the country’s future.
Without urgent intervention, a society once anchored by aspiration and opportunity risks sliding into a fragile divide of wealth and want.
NAN
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