ALBANY, New York — It’s President Donald Trump’s Republican Party — even in deep blue New York.
Moderate Rep. Mike Lawler’s decision Wednesday to forgo a gubernatorial campaign effectively ceded the field to Rep. Elise Stefanik and Nassau County Executive Bruce Blakeman, two MAGA-infused Republicans closely allied with the president.
Lawler, who has carved out an independent niche in his suburban House district, was widely considered to be the most competitive challenger to Democratic Gov. Kathy Hochul. Now Republicans, desperate to reclaim statewide power, will place a high-stakes wager on either Stefanik or Blakeman — with Trump potentially picking the winner.
The next steps for the GOP could make or break their chances of reclaiming a seat that’s eluded them for 20 years. Republicans see an opening with Hochul’s middling poll numbers, persistent voter concerns over crime and affordability, and the prospect of democratic socialist Zohran Mamdani leading New York City.
In short: Trump’s seal of approval next year may not be a kiss of death, according to interviews with a half dozen Republican officeholders, consultants and former candidates for governor.
“I don’t see a situation where he’s driving the same kind of turnout in previous gubernatorial elections because of his popularity with independents,” said Republican strategist Dave Catalfamo, who advised Republicans George Pataki and Marc Molinaro. “The media will focus on the fact that Elise is aligned with the president, but the voters are more aligned with the president than ever.”
Unseating Hochul remains a daunting challenge for any Republican. Democrats control all levers of power in New York, and Trump has lost his native state three times. Democratic voters outnumber Republicans 2-to-1, and GOP candidates typically struggle with fundraising. And the governor, along with her fellow Democrats, will try to leverage the president’s involvement to their advantage.
Trump’s unpopularity in New York helped power Democrats to a durable majority in the state Senate in the 2018 midterm elections, extinguishing the last foothold of GOP power in the state.
The president, though, has been deeply involved with shaping the race for governor. In May, Trump endorsed Lawler’s reelection to a House district Kamala Harris won by one point in 2024, almost certainly moving him closer to his decision Wednesday. The nod was an important development for Stefanik, who had been eyeing the governor’s race after her nomination to become Trump’s United Nations ambassador was yanked earlier this year.
Lawler, whose gubernatorial ambitions were an open secret in New York politics for more than a year, has been an acerbic Hochul critic. In a Fox News interview announcing his reelection plans, he called her “the worst governor in America.” And he spoke with the president recently about the race in an hour-long Oval Office meeting.
“The president expressed his view to me about how important maintaining the House majority is,” Lawler told News 12.
Democrats crowed over Trump’s intervention. Hochul’s campaign tweeted a photo of dog biscuits with Lawler’s name on a sticky note and the caption “A treat for Donald Trump’s Good Boy.”
The governor doubled down on that theme to reporters later in the day, mocking Lawler for being unable to fight Trump over his political future.
“Apparently, he doesn’t have the courage to stand up to me or to Donald Trump,” Hochul said. “I’m not surprised, but all I know is that not only will he not be governor, he won’t be a congressman for much longer.”
Lawler’s decision is also reflective of how the New York Republican Party — once the home of all-but-extinct moderates like Nelson Rockefeller — has evolved under Trump’s shadow in the last decade.
The Hudson Valley House lawmaker has scored wins during the Trump era, most notably a quadrupling of the state and local tax deduction in the massive tax-and-spend package the president signed this month. Lawler has also warred with MAGA figures like former Rep. Matt Gaetz, an antagonist of ex-House Speaker Kevin McCarthy, a Lawler ally.
Stefanik and Blakeman are comparatively better fits with the MAGA base, though neither have declared their candidacies. (A GrayHouse poll this month found Stefanik handily leading a hypothetical Republican primary.)
The silver haired and impeccably dressed Blakeman, who runs for a second term this year in Long Island’s bellwether Nassau County, would fit Trump’s oft-stated desire to find someone out of “central casting.” Blakeman has embraced a ban on public mask wearing and has closely aligned local police with federal immigration authorities. He’s made the New York Post — a conservative tabloid — Nassau County’s official newspaper.
Stefanik, once a Paul Ryan protege, was adopted into the MAGA fold after the 2016 election and emerged as one of Trump’s most vocal defenders in Congress. Her sharp questioning during Trump’s first impeachment caught the president’s attention, and her withering critique of Ivy League colleges’ handling of antisemitism gave her national attention. For the last decade, she’s represented a rural House district, which has become a Trump stronghold in an otherwise Democratic-dominated state.
Those MAGA coded resumes stand to energize the president’s base — activating voters in a midterm election that would otherwise be a referendum on the White House and the Republicans who control Congress.
“President Trump has a strong base in New York state,” said Conservative Party Chair Gerard Kassar, a Stefanik ally. “Sure, she has to work beyond that support. You could fall short if you are working just as a MAGA candidate.”
Turning New York a shade of purple has been a struggle for Empire State Republicans. Lee Zeldin, now the top official at Trump’s Environmental Protection Agency, came within 6 points of unseating Hochul in 2022. The race was run under unique circumstances: An untested Hochul was seeking a full term after succeeding scandal-scarred Andrew Cuomo while post-Covid concerns over crime dominated the race in a Democratic backlash year. It wasn’t enough to beat the governor, who this month reported more than $17 million in cash on hand for her reelection bid next year.
Yet Trump’s New York allies believe Zeldin’s gains serve as a foundation after years of falling short in gubernatorial races. Carl Paladino, the party’s 2010 nominee for governor, believes voters will be attracted to an anti-establishment fervor that Trump has successfully tapped into.
“This era is great for the Republican Party to grow itself in New York,” said Paladino, whose norm-shattering campaign has been compared to Trump’s successful presidential bid. “People don’t want to be associated with the parties. They want to be blanks.”
Hochul has forged a relationship with the Republican president, even as she publicly bashes him. The two have met in the Oval Office to discuss a controversial Manhattan toll program and pipeline construction. Republicans dismiss those meetings and suspect Trump’s overarching political plan is to flip the governor’s mansion — a goal he briefly considered in 2014 before bowing out.
“It would be a tremendous win for the president’s legacy to be able to flip a deep blue state like New York,” said former Republican Rep. John Sweeney. “He cares very much.”
