The White House feels as confident about the shutdown on day 19 as it was on day one– in part because congressional Republicans have, for the most part, remained largely in line.
“There’s no discussions at all at the rank-and-file level, and what is there even for Republicans to be skittish about?” said a Senate GOP aide granted anonymity to discuss the dynamics between the White House and Congress.
Even as 89 percent of Americans surveyed said they believe the shutdown is at least a “minor problem,” and 54 percent say it is a “major problem,” both parties are held responsible, giving neither party a reason to cave.
“The House did its job,” Speaker Mike Johnson said Sunday on ABC’s “This Week.” “We passed the clean resolution. The continuing resolution, we keep the lights on, keep the government working for the people. … Democrats have voted 11 times, except for three Democrats in the Senate, voted 11 times to shut down the government.”
The confidence and cohesion from Republicans on both ends of Pennsylvania Avenue – and a similar confidence among Democrats – augurs no quick end to what is approaching one of the longest shutdowns in history.
Republicans are pushing a continuing resolution, which would open the government at current budget levels. Democrats want a deal to extend health care subsidies due to expire at the end of the year before agreeing to provide the votes needed in the Senate to reopen the government.
“The longer the shutdown goes on, the more the Democrats’ position deteriorates in public polling,” a White House official, granted anonymity to discuss the president’s position, said in a statement. “The Administration has been consistent from day one: keep the government open with the same proposal Democrats supported just 6 months ago and 13 times under the Biden Administration. We won’t negotiate on policy while the American people are held hostage. Our position has not changed … nor will it.”
And that’s just fine with congressional Republicans.
“What we’re discussing is ways to minimize the pain on the American people that has been caused by the Democrats,” said Rep. Nicole Malliotakis (R-N.Y.). “Different members in the White House team have been meeting with the various caucuses, and we’ve been doing conference calls where we could share concerns, ask questions, bring up any issues.”
Some House members from swing districts are growing nervous after hearing from local offices, Chambers of Commerce and federal workers, according to a person who served in Trump’s first term and granted anonymity to describe the conversations. But, while staff are passing feedback to the White House, the concern is quiet rather than open defiance of Trump, the person said.
“A few of the non-leadership members are checking in with Trump-world folks, but they are mostly looking for reassurances and not a strong push for a change in direction,” the former aide said. “I do get the sense that the longer this drags on, the more this becomes kind of a loyalty test — who stays on message and who starts to flinch once the hometown pressure kicks in.”
So far, there is very little flinching and the White House has had to do relatively little to keep members in line.
“They haven’t called me,” Rep. Tim Burchett (R-Tenn.) said. “They follow my social media pretty closely, we’ve been told. So, I guess they know I’m firmly in their camp. I don’t think we should budge.”
In fact, “it’s remarkably calm and regular order,” said a person close to the White House. “The Hill’s still running, people are taking meetings. Republicans are operating like we’re open for business, we’re doing what we want. The staff’s not getting paid but there’s a certain calmness, which is surprising.”
Johnson has kept the House indefinitely out of session until Democrats vote to end the government shutdown, a strategy that has made some in his caucus anxious, but the speaker has insisted that Republicans are still very much engaged in the people’s business, even if it is off the floor.
And there are some sensitive issues the White House has worked with Congress to address before they become pain points for members and their constituents.
Senate Majority Leader John Thuneprivately pressed the White House to allow farmers to access Marketing Assistance Loans during the shutdown, according to four people with direct knowledge of the conversations, including two Trump officials.
GOP lawmakers have also expressed concerns that Thanksgiving travel will be affected.
To eliminate a potential pressure point, the Trump administration moved to pay active-duty troops earlier this week. Speaker Mike Johnson on Wednesday called the move a “temporary fix” and warned that the next round of paychecks is not guaranteed, blaming Democrats for using the military as “hostages.”
“I get the sense that the party is completely loyal to Trump and I don’t think Trump feels cornered in any way at all, which I think is giving them confidence,” said Sam Geduldig, a lobbyist at CGCN Group and former aide to ex-Speaker John Boehner. “So I would put the level of concern amongst most rank and file as minimal.”
