National Democrats are trying to push recalcitrant Marylanders into redrawing the state’s congressional lines, arguing that the party’s base would support Free State leaders jumping into the nationwide fray.
A Change Research polling memo commissioned by the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee and shared first with POLITICO argued that a majority of Maryland voters responded positively to “to every argument that was tested in support of redistricting,” and found that a majority of Democratic voters in the state would be more likely to support a candidate in a primary if they backed redrawing the state’s maps.
The message in the memo from national Democrats to the state is clear: It is time to move.
“These results suggest that the Democratic base will respond extremely positively to action from the state legislature on redistricting — and that, if public opinion in Maryland follows California’s trajectory, voters outside the Democratic base are likely to follow,” Change Research’s Ben Greenfield and Matt Booker write in the memo.
Across the country, both red and blue states are taking up redistricting to try and gain an advantage in next year’s midterms, where control of the House will be up for grabs. President Donald Trump and other Republicans have heavily pressured GOP-controlled states to redraw their lines, leaving Democrats scrambling in an environment where they generally have less options to remake the lines.
So far, Republicans have drawn seven red-leaning seats in three states — including five in Texas, the state that kicked off the arms race. Democratic efforts are underway in California and Virginia, which could together yield the same amount of seats for the party.
In Maryland, which currently only has one Republican member of Congress, Gov. Wes Moore has suggested he’s open to the idea, but there is not yet unified support in the state Legislature.
On Wednesday, Rep. Jamie Raskin (D-Md.) called for lawmakers to take up redistricting, saying such a move “a political and ethical imperative.”
The Change Research poll found that 33 percent of Marylanders were initially opposed to redistricting, but did not share how many were supportive. That number is significantly smaller than in similar DCCC-commissioned polls in red states like Missouri and Indiana, where Democrats argued redistricting was a political loser because voters said they opposed redistricting efforts.
The Change Research survey was conducted from Oct. 8-10 and surveyed 909 likely 2026 voters via texting and “and targeted advertisements on social media.” It has a modeled margin of error of plus-or-minus 3.5 percentage points, which would be larger for different subgroups.
