…Projects 3.1% real growth, 10.2% contribution to real GDP
By Yinka Kolawole
The Manufacturers Association of Nigeria (MAN) has projected a much improved performance of the sector in 2026, with an expectation of 3.1 percent real growth and a contribution of 10.2 percent to the real gross domestic product (GDP) in the coming year.
MAN’s Director of Research and Economic Policy Division, Dr Oluwasegun Osidipe, who made the projections during the presentation of MAN CEOs Confidence Index (MCCI) report in Lagos, hinged the outlook on favourable oil prices, rising foreign investments, stable energy costs, and the effective implementation of key industrial and fiscal policies.
“Real growth is projected to reach 3.1 percent while contribution to real GDP is expected to rise to 10.2 percent. These gains, however, hinge on the effective execution of incentives under the new tax laws, the operationalisation of the National Single Window (NSW) Project and the purposeful implementation of the Nigeria Industrial Policy in close alignment with the “Nigeria First” Policy framework,” he stated.
Speaking further on the requisite conditions to achieving the improved outlook, Osidipe said: “The naira is projected to appreciate further to N1,300–N1,400/$, driven by global oil price recovery, stronger external reserves, robust export earnings, increased foreign investments and remittance inflows.
“Headline inflation will decelerate further to 14%, supported by easing food prices, stable energy prices and appreciation of the naira.
“The Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) is anticipated to implement further cuts in the benchmark interest rate to about 23%, in line with the disinflationary trend and to stimulate credit expansion and output growth.
“Further reduction in lending rates and completion of the bank recapitalisation exercise will enhance credit availability to manufacturers, strengthening investment and capacity utilisation.
The stabilisation path has been cleared; what lies ahead is the imperative of accelerated growth.”
According to him, the overall GDP growth is expected to reach 4 percent in 2026 due to higher oil output, further improvement in fiscal space, expansion in financial and manufacturing sectors, and heightened consumption during the election campaigns in the fourth quarter of 2026 (Q4 2026).
For perspectives, the projected outlook is better compared to the sector’s contribution of 9.62 percent to the real GDP in Q1 2025, with a real growth rate of 1.69 percent, and even much better than the 7.81 percent the sector contributed to real GDP in Q2 2025 with a growth rate of 1.60 percent.
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