NEW YORK — GOP Rep. Mike Lawler plans to forgo a bid for New York governor and will mount a reelection bid for his swing House seat instead, he told POLITICO on Wednesday.
Lawler’s decision, first reported by The New York Times, will give Rep. Elise Stefanik, a staunch ally to President Donald Trump, a clear path to the Republican nomination next year.
Lawler will seek a third term in one of the country’s toughest House battlegrounds. He is a high-priority target for the House Democrats’ campaign arm, and at least seven Democratic challengers are vying for his suburban New York City seat.
The battle-tested, media-savvy moderate has long sought an opportunity to challenge Gov. Kathy Hochul. He was widely viewed as one of Republicans’ best chances at winning statewide office in a generation.
Lawler’s ambitions were stifled, though, by his Republican House colleague.
Stefanik signaled her interest in the race earlier this year after her nomination to become Trump’s United Nations ambassador was yanked. Polls have shown Stefanik with a clear lead in a hypothetical GOP gubernatorial primary over Lawler and Nassau County Executive Bruce Blakeman.
Stefanik praised Lawler as a “great, effective and hardworking” lawmaker. She plans to make a decision on a gubernatorial campaign after the November elections.
GOP officials have been eager to avoid a party primary and did not want a repeat of the 2022 race, when leading candidate Lee Zeldin faced a four-way contest that forced him to the right and dip into his campaign coffers.
Prominent Republicans have urged Lawler to run for reelection in his Hudson Valley district, which Kamala Harris won by 1 point in 2024, in order to bolster their chances of retaining a narrow majority in the chamber. In May, Trump gave him an early endorsement for a third House term, writing on Truth Social that Lawler is a “True America First Patriot.”
The House member sought to downplay whether the president was discouraging him from a bid for governor, telling POLITICO at the time, “Ultimately, my decision is going to be my decision.”
New York Democrats gleefully pounced on the news Wednesday.
“Mike Lawler caving to Donald Trump before his campaign even starts proves he’s too weak to take on Governor Hochul — and he knows it,” State Democratic Chair Jay Jacobs said.
Lawler is raring for a reelection fight. But he may have a tougher battle than he did in 2024 as Democrats attack GOP votes for Trump’s “one big, beautiful bill” and hone in on health care cuts. Lawler has sought to counter the narrative by spotlighting parts of the megalaw more popular with his constituents, including the quadrupling of the state and local tax deduction cap, or SALT, that he helped to negotiate.
Lawler had a $2.2 million campaign war chest as of late June, which got a boost with a transfer from House Speaker Mike Johnson (R-La.). Lawler had nearly as much to spend on seeking a third term as all seven of his Democratic challengers combined.
Expect Democrats to link Lawler to Trump every chance they can in 2026.
“Mike Lawler might’ve chickened out of a statewide race, but he can’t outrun his heinous record of rubberstamping Trump’s extreme agenda at every turn,” Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee spokesperson Riya Vashi said in a statement.
Winning back the New York governor’s mansion will be an uphill climb for Republicans in this deep-blue state where Democrats hold all levers of statewide power. A GOP candidate has not won the office since 2002, when George Pataki secured a third and final term.
Hochul has middling poll numbers, though a Siena College survey this month found her handily defeating potential GOP contenders. She has $17.5 million in the bank for her reelection bid.
