Kamala Harris’ decision not to enter the governor’s race is an immense victory for her would-be Democratic opponents, unlocking troves of donors who had been waiting for her announcement and voters who almost universally know the former vice president.
From Katie Porter’s big moment to the field-wide scramble for cash and Republicans losing their foil, here are five ways Harris’ move is upending the contest:
Porter’s in command: No one is poised to benefit more than Porter, who shares an overlapping base of national benefactors and has performed better than all Democrats but Harris in public polling of the race.
Porter’s camp was quick on Wednesday to reup spring polling that suggests she has the support of 36 percent of likely primary voters. The survey, conducted by GBAO Strategies, found that Lt. Gov. Eleni Kounalakis and former Los Angeles Mayor Antonio Villaraigosa tied as the second most popular Democrats — though they trail Porter by double digits.
Other prominent Democrats in the race, including former state Senate leader Toni Atkins and former Health and Human Services Secretary Xavier Becerra, were trailing in the lower single digits.
Porter, a former representative from Orange County, could face a hurdle attracting support within the Democratic Party establishment. She’s often cut against the grain within the party and had few close allies on Capitol Hill. But that might not be the biggest handicap in an election cycle where voters are eager for “change” — provided Porter can seize the anti-status-quo label.
The fundraising freeze thaws: Campaigns have already begun blowing up the phones of large-dollar donors who were waiting to contribute until Harris made a call. Former Controller Betty Yee, chatting with Playbook before donor meetings in Southern California, said Wednesday her campaign was reaching out to potential contributors in the Bay Area where she and Harris both share a base.
“We started to see some movement a couple weeks ago but, I think until she really made her definitive decision, it was still a lot of people on the fence just seeing how the field would solidify,” said Yee. “We do have some donors in common that I think we’re going to definitely see some movement now in California and nationally.”
State Superintendent Tony Thurmond, who’s from the East Bay, told Playbook people in his overlapping network will feel freer now to pick a horse in the race. He also said he was grateful that Harris made a decision before several labor unions — which supported his past runs for office — vote on primary endorsements this fall, even if it will be difficult for any one candidate to secure the majorities needed to get formal labor nods before next year’s run-off.
“It’s good that the vice president made her announcement now, rather than waiting any longer to give those organizations time to hear from the candidates and to vet the candidates,” he said.
Republicans lost their foil: Republicans desperately wanted to run against Harris on the November 2026 ballot. Even if they faced long odds of defeating her, GOP insiders hoped the contest would provide the party with a fundraising and messaging vehicle.
“Barely anyone is less representative of change than Kamala Harris,” quipped Steve Hilton, a former Fox News host and Republican candidate for governor. “I’ve always thought that (she) would be extremely beatable in the general election.”
Now, the challenge for Hilton and the other major Republican in the race — Riverside County Sheriff Chad Bianco — isn’t beating up on Harris, but convincing voters that they are the best candidates to fix California’s biggest problems, from the soaring cost of living to the state’s repeated budget deficits.
Bianco, who had previously said he’d love for Harris to run due to her weaknesses, told Playbook on Wednesday that his comments were simply an exercise in “reverse psychology.”
“It was like, yeah, I’ll try and convince her that she’s going to be the worst thing for California,” said Bianco, “but the reality is, I’m very happy that she’s no longer in it.”
Democrats with lower name identification than Harris, he argued, “are all going to have to fight with each other to say who’s responsible for putting us where we are, and this is going to be, I believe, a Democrat bloodbath.”
Richard Grenell, a special envoy to President Donald Trump, previously said he was considering running if Harris got in, but didn’t respond to a text message inquiring about his plans following the former vice president’s announcement. And Stephen Cloobeck, a Democratic entrepreneur who is running but has sharply criticized Harris, remarked to Playbook that he “won’t have the pleasure” of debating her.
Caruso is the biggest unknown: Billionaire mall magnate Rick Caruso has considered running for the office since losing the last Los Angeles mayoral election to Karen Bass. But his team declined to comment on whether Harris’ decision would affect his calculations.
A Republican-turned-Democrat, Caruso has been floated as a moderate, business-aligned candidate who could capture angst at the political establishment and old guard Democrats. Insiders are watching to see whether he challenges Bass, again, runs for governor or does something else entirely.
San Jose Mayor Matt Mahan, a moderate Democrat who has been floated for the job, said he’s focused on being mayor — though he didn’t exactly slam the door shut on running.
“My thinking hasn’t changed,” Mahan said. “Our next governor needs to be laser-focused on holding every city and county accountable for building shelter and in-patient treatment beds, and requiring that people use them when available.”
Eleni’s productive day: Democrats in the race were quick to seize on Wednesday’s opening. But Kounalakis had an especially good day.
She received an apparent off-the-cuff endorsement from former House Speaker Nancy Pelosi, a fellow San Franciscan. And a person close to Kounalakis’ campaign, granted anonymity to describe internal conversations, told Playbook she received a call from Harris before the former vice president made her announcement.
Harris hasn’t said if she intends to endorse, but Kounalakis’ allies were quick to tout the call as a testament to their yearslong friendship. Moreover, Kounalakis’ camp emphasized her fundraising edge, with $9 million cash on hand.
This reporting first appeared in California Playbook. Sign up to receive it in your inbox every weekday.
