President Donald Trump has been talking about sending troops to Chicago to crack down on crime for nearly a month. “We’re going in,” he said Tuesday, without giving a timeframe.
It hasn’t happened yet. And the administration has sounded less committed to the idea since then — which suggests the whole idea of using troops to fight crime could be a bust.
The Department of Homeland Security did announce a deportations operation in Illinois on Monday, but it’s not the largescale crime crackdown involving the National Guard that Trump has been talking about.
In fact, there’s reason to believe the new operation could be an offramp.
Not only has a federal judge now ruled against Trump’s ability to use troops for law enforcement, but polls suggest the American people are increasingly skeptical of the entire initiative. And while Trump has demonstrated a willingness to work around courts and brush off polling before, his own rhetoric also reflects there’s a deeper hesitancy here.
The new poll
A new CBS News-YouGov poll is perhaps the most thorough to date to test this subject. It’s biggest findings:
-
Americans opposed Trump’s use of the National Guard to fight crime in Washington, D.C., 57-43%.
-
They opposed taking the same approach to other cities, 58-42%
-
They opposed taking the same approach to their own cities and areas by a slightly larger margin, 61-39%.
The data tracks with earlier polls on Trump’s use of troops in Los Angeles (amid anti-deportation protests) and D.C. A Quinnipiac University poll in late August showed Americans opposed Trump’s use of troops in D.C., 56-41%. The margins have been similar with the Los Angeles deployment.
But the CBS poll had some other revealing tidbits.
For instance, Americans were about evenly split on whether using the National Guard actually reduces crime. While 49% said it does, 51% said it doesn’t. Independents said it doesn’t, 55-45%.
Just 36% of Americans said they feel safer because of Trump’s use of the National Guard.
National Guard Military Police watch as trains arrive and depart at Washington, DC’s L’Enfant Plaza station on September 4. – Kent Nishimura/Getty Images
That makes the argument for deploying troops harder. The big tradeoff with Trump’s gambit is whether people are willing to stomach an extraordinary use of troops on U.S. soil in exchange for reduced crime.
“The line is that I’m a dictator, but I stop crime,” Trump said recently. “So a lot of people say, ‘You know, if that’s the case, I’d rather have a dictator.’”
But half of Americans don’t even think Trump’s moves reduce crime, and only around one-third say it personally makes them feel safer.
In fact, Americans are significantly more likely to say this makes their own rights and freedoms less secure (39%) than more secure (26%).
They are also significantly more likely to view this as being about politics (45%) than actually reducing crime (33%).
None of that suggests Americans writ large see the real value in this, much less one that makes them endorse Trump exercising powers even he has suggested could be taken as dictatorial.
A familiar story of overreach
One finding from the new poll epitomizes Trump’s apparent political overreach here.
While Americans were nearly even split on whether they generally liked Trump’s goals — they disliked them 53-47% — they disapproved of his approach to those goals by a huge, 26-point margin, 63-37%.
Just 28% of independents said they generally liked how Trump is approaching the presidency.
President Donald Trump speaks to the White House Religious Liberty Commission during an event at the Museum of the Bible in Washington, DC, on Monday. – Evan Vucci/AP
This has been the story of Trump’s second term on so many issues.
The White House’s strategy seems to be trying to expand Trump’s power by targeting things that are difficult to defend. Who could oppose fighting crime? Who wants to defend undocumented immigrants who aren’t given due process? Who wants to defend the legal right to flag-burning? And, more recently, who wants to argue against a legally dubious strike on an alleged drug boat?
But over and over again, we’ve seen that Americans actually do oppose Trump’s methods, even as they largely sympathize with his goals. They separate these things in their minds.
Could Trump be getting cold feet?
The big question now, especially after the judge’s ruling last week: Will the Trump administration back off its plans to send the National Guard into Chicago?
If you squint, there are some signs of cold feet.
The administration has recently been more focused on previewing a largescale deportation operation in Chicago and other cities — which it launched Monday and doesn’t necessarily involve troops fighting crime — rather than a big National Guard deployment.
Trump and others also keep talking about getting the approval of officials like Illinois Gov. J.B. Pritzker and Chicago Mayor Brandon Johnson, who are both Democrats. That wasn’t a concern aired by the administration when Trump sent troops into LA and DC.
“We’re waiting for a call from Chicago,” Trump said Monday, adding: “I don’t know why Chicago isn’t calling us.” He also railed against Pritzker for not asking for federal government help in a Truth Social post that morning.
Immigration and Customs Enforcement agents stand guard as demonstrators protest outside of an ICE processing facility in Broadview, Illinois, on September 6. – Taylor Glascock/Bloomberg/Getty Images
Others have also stressed the lack of local approval.
While Vice President JD Vance said Wednesday that Trump did have the authority to send troops into Chicago, he added that there were “no immediate plans” and that “obviously the president has said we want the governor to be a partner here.”
Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth echoed the sentiment later that day: “As the president has said, he wants governors to invite us in. And, unfortunately, you have got some governors that aren’t willing to do that in Illinois and Maryland.”
Trump has previously argued he doesn’t need approval from governors. But the judge’s ruling in Los Angeles showed that approval matters, if Trump doesn’t want to get slapped down for breaking the law.
Trump and others have also floated the possibility of instead going into cities where Republican governors could invite them, like New Orleans. That could give Trump a chance to keep using troops on U.S. soil, as he’s long aspired to do, without risking such a legal and political rebuke.
Trump claimed it was others who built up the possibility of going into Chicago, but he did so personally and publicly. Then, asked Sunday whether he had plans for going into Chicago this week, Trump conspicuously downplayed it.
“No, not really. Not really. We’re gonna go someplace,” Trump said.
If he does back off now, it will be a pretty remarkable capitulation.
For more CNN news and newsletters create an account at CNN.com
