“Allow an untenable situation to persist for a long time; and, suddenly, there are no good options left” – Arthur Burns, Chairman, US Federal Reserve Bank, 1987
Contrary to my expectations of an avalanche of negative reactions to the first part of this article, there were very few; and the majority admitted that most Nigerians, now in the panic mode, can hardly think clearly about the multi-faceted security crisis being experienced nationwide. One individual, apparently, missed the point about the consequences of President Bola Tinubu resigning.
Like most people demanding for Tinubu to step down, he avoided the questions posed – in the event that the President resigned alone or with the Vice President. In the first case, the Vice President steps up; in the second case, the Senate President is required by the Nigerian Constitution to preside for three months during which a snap election must take place to elect a new President. None of the shallow thinkers asking for Tinubu’s resignation has told us whether Shettima or Akpabio would be preferred as a substitute; and why? Yet, without confronting the options objectively available to us, the call for Tinubu’s resignation is an emotional outburst, at best; and a subversive proposal at worst.
“Every government is run by liars; and nothing they say should be believed”
– I F Stone,1907-1989, VANGUARD BOOK OF QUOTATIONS, VBQ, p 80
Unquestionably, Buhari’s eight years in office, during which progress was repeatedly reported by Lai Mohammed, Garba Shehu and Femi Adesina, as well as others, paved the road to hell on which the nation is now traveling at break neck speed. Granted, the current government misunderstood and under-estimated the enormity of the catastrophe inherited in 2023; but, by then there were no good options left. On the eve of Buhari’s departure for Daura, communities in his local government were already paying bandits to be left in peace. Few of us remember that a presidential convoy was ambushed and had to fight its way to safety on one of his visits to Katsina – which was extremely peaceful under Jonathan. Sources in Dutsin Ma, with relatives in Daura, claim that Buhari’s relocation to Kaduna was not voluntary; the ex-President’s safety could no longer be guaranteed by the time he fled.
Last week, President Tinubu ordered herdsmen to surrender their arms. That tentative step in the right direction should eventually reduce the atrocities by one group of bandits which were Buhari-made. Certainly, nobody who had been farming before 2015 would forget that armed herdsmen were among Buhari administration’s legacies. Soon, Nigerians would be wondering why herdsmen still commit heinous crimes.
The truth is; disarming herdsmen is a long term project. There should be no illusion that almost 500,000 armed men, larger than the Nigerian army and Police put together, can be so quickly subdued; especially given consideration to the fact that they operate in several countries throughout West Africa. Certainly, few, if any of them will voluntarily surrender their weapons for a very simple reason – cattle rustlers. Cattle thieves, some of them ex-servicemen whose farms were over-run by herdsmen, are the only people feared by herdsmen. Asking them to lay down their arms would empower the rustlers who have not received presidential orders to do the same.
SOLDIERS AND VICTIMS CONSTITUTE PART OF THE PROBLEM
“Defeated soldiers, in their own defence, have to protest that their adversary was something out of the ordinary; that they had all the advantages and that they themselves suffered every corresponding handicap. The harder they have run away, the more they must exaggerate the unfair superiority of the enemy” – British Field Marshall Lord Slim, 1891-1970, VBQ, p 229.
Nigerian soldiers, inherited by Tinubu, invariably served their years bullying unarmed civilians; shooting #EndSARS protesters; occasionally beating up Police officers, but seldom in real combat situations. Consequently, being under sustained fire – for which they are not prepared — must come as shock to most of them. Lord Slim’s observation comes to mind each time a story appears in the media about three hundred bandits riding into a community or barracks to kidnap people. The first question coming to mind is: Who counted them and where was he located to do so?
Putting the 300 bandits on motorcycle involved in an attack in context reveals how frequently the FG and fellow Nigerians have been misled by exaggerated reports of terrorist’s threats. 300 motorcyclists on a standard road riding six abreast will form a column of 50; that column will stretch about half a kilometer. It is almost impossible to ride six abreast on most rural, dusty and narrow roads. So, the convoy would stretch to about one and half kilometers in length – unless there is convergence from many sides. From one account, firing commences long before they reach the target – school, church, mosque or military base. Given the panic and pandemonium unleashed, should we ask ourselves a simple question: Who would stop to count the number of attackers? Two more difficult questions to answer are the following: why are the figures accepted, first by the media, and then the rest of us without verification? Who benefits from having exaggerated estimates of terrorists’ capabilities accepted as gospel truth?
The second question is more important because it calls into question the mass hysteria concerning what government’s response should be to the present dangers. Because, once we accept as fact “the unfair superiority of the enemy”, as Slim said, surrender to their terms is the best option left. Recruiting more soldiers, de-moralised before they reach the war front would merely add more bodies as cannon fodder. Call to citizens to defend themselves would be meaningless because they have been told that the enemies are invincible. Why fight and die when you have the choice of living as a slave to bandits?
Even attacks on barracks and soldiers are replete with questionable estimates of enemy strength at the time the incident occurred. Invariably, they occur in the middle of the night or early hours of morning, when least expected. Afterwards, large numbers of attackers are reported attacking a much smaller number of soldiers. But, surprise attacks in history have not always required large numbers of attackers. A few armed men can overwhelm a larger group caught unprepared or asleep. The truth is; nobody else but the commander of the invaders can possibly know how many people partook in the assault.
Deliberately or inadvertently misstating the size of attackers might invest them with greater capacity than they actually possess and discourage attempts aimed at defeating them – if correct assessments are made.
I have gone to great lengths to point out how Fellow Nigerians mislead our Presidents, in this case Tinubu, by feeding them with false narratives about the enemies of Nigeria. We are partly responsible for the failures we condemn; and right now, the President is confronted with conflicting suggestions regarding solutions to the crisis of insecurity. Below is a brief summary of ideas canvassed with great sincerity by Nigerians in the Vanguard of November 29, 2025.
SIMPLE SOLUTIONS TO COMPLEX PROBLEMS NEVER WORK
“Go after sponsors of insecurity in Nigeria – Sara-Igbe Urges FG”
“We need to rejig our Mobile Police Force immediately – Rtd AIG”
“…it is clear that our security architecture must be modernized. We need better equipment; improved training and stronger inter-agency cooperation – Major Rasaq Salawu (Rtd)”
“There should be adequate provision of warfare logistics, motivation of both police and military personnel; and recruitment of more hands… Barr. Joseph, Rtd Police Officer”
“Time for a national conversation on insecurity, long-term plan needed –AIG Iwar (rtd)”
Just last week, President Tunubu declared a National Security Emergency; a measure long demanded by some sections of the country. Reactions followed immediately; mostly from retired officers – who are not called upon to carry out the orders implied in the declaration. Predictably, the responses followed agency lines. Here they are.
“Ground forces will feel this instantly – Army General”
“Air power will shape the outcome – Retired Air Vice Marshall”
“Intelligence will make or break this emergency – Retired DSS Director”.
Whenever potential windfall of funds is on the way to the armed forces, every agency immediately stakes its claim to the lion’s share. National Security Emergency is destined to cost Nigeria trillions of naira in additional expenditure; most of which will benefit well-connected top armed forces officers – serving and retired. Scramble for funds alone renders inter-agency cooperation almost impossible to achieve.
ADVICE TO PRESIDENT TINUBU
Some politicians funding terrorism in Nigeria – Ex-CDS Irabor, Vanguard, December 2, 2025.
Listen closely to General Lucky Irabor, a former Chief of Defence Staff. Nigerian armed forces are not fighting one war and one enemy. Unfortunately for them and us, they are fighting several wars at once. Irabor’s counsel is summarized as follows: “The reality is that our issues in terms of security challenges are multi-facited…we have terrorists who have an ideology….we have those hell-bent on targeting Christians….those who are targeting communities…and economic criminals operate with different motives making the crisis difficult to simplify”. Let me add: Incredibly difficult to manage.
To be continued
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