By Emma Ujah, Abuja Bureau Chief & Progress Godfrey
The 2026 Appropriations Bill, presented by President Bola Tinubu reflects a significant expansion in fiscal ambition compared with 2025, a higher deficit financing and more conservative macroeconomic assumptions.
Read Also: Security is Tinubu’s priority in N58.18trn 2026 budget
The projected expenditure for 2026 is pegged at N58.18 trillion, a sharp increase from N49.7 trillion in 2025, underscoring the administration’s push to consolidate reforms and sustain economic recovery.
However, expected revenue is projected at N34.33 trillion, slightly lower than the N34.82 trillion estimated in 2025, widening the fiscal gap.
As a result, the budget deficit is projected to rise to N23.85 trillion, representing 4.28 percent of GDP, compared with N13.08 trillion in 2025. This reflects heavier reliance on borrowing to fund spending commitments amid revenue pressures.
On the spending side, capital expenditure rose to N26.08 trillion in the 2026 Appropriations Bill, signalling sustained infrastructure and productive-sector investment. In contrast, debt servicing climbed to N15.52 trillion, highlighting the growing burden of public debt, while recurrent nondebt expenditure stood at N15.25 trillion, broadly in line with fiscal restraint efforts.
Macroeconomic assumptions for 2026 are notably more cautious. The oil price benchmark was lowered to $64.85 per barrel from $75 in 2025, while oil production was reduced to 1.8 million barrels per day, down from 2.06 mbpd. The exchange rate assumption improved marginally to N1,400/$1 from N1,500/$1, reflecting optimism around FX market stability.
Meanwhile, GDP growth of 3.98 percent in Q3 2025 was cited as evidence of gradual recovery, supported by external reserves of $47 billion, a seven-year high. Sectoral allocations reveal mixed movements. Defence and security rose to N5.41 trillion from N4.91 trillion in 2025, reinforcing internal security priorities.
Infrastructure spending, however, declined to N3.56 trillion from N4.06 trillion, while education and health and social services allocations were retained at N3.52 trillion and N2.48 trillion, respectively, indicating continuity rather than expansion in human capital spending.
Beyond headline figures, the President disclosed targeted social and development interventions, including healthcare funding equivalent to 6 percent of the total budget, support for over 780,000 students under the education loan scheme, plans to cultivate one million hectares of land for food security, and $500 million in U.S.-backed health interventions, reinforcing the administration’s National Renewal agenda despite tighter fiscal conditions.
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