At a Filipino restaurant tucked into a strip mall in southeast Virginia, Winsome Earle-Sears stood this week before a crowd of longtime friends and supporters and talked about her background as an immigrant, Marine and Christian conservative.
“In no other country is my story even possible,” she said, noting that she was paraphrasing former President Barack Obama. “I am an unconventional candidate and this just tells us that this is the American dream.”
But her dream of becoming Virginia’s governor faces skepticism from her own party, with Republicans openly worried that she will lose one of this fall’s marquee races.
“As a potential governor, she’d be extraordinary. As a candidate on a one-on-one basis or in a group, she’s phenomenal. She’s charismatic. But the campaign apparatus has been abysmal and they need to turn that around,” said conservative radio host John Fredericks.
Democratic nominee Abigail Spanberger outraised Earle-Sears by nearly $5 million in the second quarter and had more than three times as much cash as her GOP rival at the end of June. One recent poll found Earle-Sears trailing Spanberger by double digits. Last week, Earle-Sears named a new campaign manager after the person who previously held the post was moved to a different role.
Earle-Sears, the state’s lieutenant governor, is defiant. Her campaign has previously acknowledged she’s an underdog but, in her telling, it’s no different than any other campaign she’s run or the doubts that Republican Gov. Glenn Youngkin confronted four years ago before his victory.
“This is a dynamic campaign. It’s happening. We’re going to win. We’re marching towards victory,” Earle-Sears said in an interview with CNN, maintaining that she’s always had to fight and that nothing in her life has come easy.
“We’re meeting with the voters. We’re listening to them. We’re traveling everywhere. We’re not taking any vote for granted,” she said.
Earle-Sears focused during a long day of campaigning Monday on her economic message and her attacks on Spanberger over job creation and the participation of trans athletes in sports. But she offered one comment at the Virginia Beach restaurant that could be read as a message to critics in both parties.
“Those people who would like to divide us because their agenda is about control and then they swoop in to say they’re going to save us from whoever, we don’t need that,” she told the audience. “We don’t need that. We just need you to get out of our way so we can accomplish things, so our children can accomplish things.”
A spokesperson for Spanberger shrugged off Earle-Sears’ criticism.
“Abigail has built a reputation for working with both Democrats and Republicans to deliver results for Virginia,” the spokesperson said. “As Governor, Abigail will continue to put petty political games aside to get things done, not cheer on a White House that is cutting Virginians’ jobs, threatening Virginians’ healthcare coverage, and hurting their bank accounts.”
Virginia Gov. Glenn Youngkin and Lt. Gov. Winsome Earle-Sears attend the Drivers Meeting prior to the NASCAR Cup Series Cook Out 400 at Martinsville Speedway on March 30, 2025 in Martinsville, Virginia. (Photo by Logan Riely/Getty Images) – Logan Riely/Getty Images
Facing loud Republican critics
Earle-Sears has yet to receive the endorsement of President Donald Trump, who is unpopular nationally with independent voters but remains strong with conservatives Earle-Sears will need to turn out in November. In this fall’s other major statewide race, Trump has endorsed Jack Ciattarelli, the GOP nominee for New Jersey governor.
Earle-Sears has criticized Trump before. In 2022, prior to Trump launching his third campaign for the White House, she called for him to “step off the stage,” saying in a television interview that “a true leader understands when they have become a liability.”
“I met with the president in the Oval Office. We had discussions, and that’s all I’m going to say,” she said this week when asked if she was concerned Trump’s lack of support could dampen enthusiasm among Republican base voters.
The White House did not respond to requests for comment. But one of Earle-Sears’ most prominent Republican critics is Chris LaCivita, a Virginia political strategist who was Trump’s 2024 co-campaign manager and is a top Trump ally.
Asked by CNN to comment on the governor’s race, LaCivita texted back with apparent sarcasm: “Oh I didn’t know there was one.”
Fredericks has pleaded for Youngkin to get more involved in campaign operations and join Earle-Sears more frequently on the campaign trail.
He believes Earle-Sears can win if there is massive turnout in southwest Virginia.
“They also have to embrace early voting, and it has to be a key linchpin of their campaign,” he added.
Youngkin allies maintain he is fully engaged in the campaign, frequently on fundraising calls and serving as one of her biggest cheerleaders.
“She’s been my partner the entire time since the day we were elected,” Youngkin told reporters this week. “She understands what it means to drive economic growth and job growth. She understands what it means to stand with law enforcement and bring crime down.”
Earle-Sears is steadfast in her socially conservative views, putting herself to the right of some Republicans. Last year she hand-wrote a note on a marriage equality bill that passed the general assembly signaling her moral opposition to same-sex marriage. She did the same on a reproductive rights bill.
In 2023, Youngkin embraced a 15-week abortion ban with exceptions for rape, incest and to protect the life of the mother, but voters rejected that approach by denying the governor and his party the legislative majorities to enact his agenda.
Earle-Sears was noncommittal when asked whether she would consider another push to restrict abortion rights.
“We got to get in a room and figure it out. That’s what we have to do,” Earle-Sears told CNN, refusing to clarify if that meant she would push for more restrictions if elected governor.
Her campaign urges calm
Earle-Sears and her allies maintain it’s far too early for panic. They say they are confident in the compelling nature of her biography, a conservative with an immigrant story rooted in faith and entrepreneurship, and the record of the Youngkin-Sears administration, to carry her to victory. She touts returning $9 billion of taxpayer money and the creation of more than 15,000 new businesses, increasing teacher pay and investments in the construction of new projects as among the administration’s accomplishments.
As she greeted families and encouraged young volunteers at an aquarium after the Filipino restaurant stop, there was no indication Earle-Sears or anyone on her team, at least publicly, were getting worked up about her chances.
“She’s pretty clearly an underdog in this race,” said Kyle Kondik of the University of Virginia’s Center for Politics.
“It’s also possible that the sort of level of doom and gloom might be a little overstated and maybe a little premature because there is plenty of time but there are just some big-picture factors that were working in Youngkin’s benefit that just aren’t working in her benefit,” added Kondik.
Virginia’s off-year elections have the potential to serve as a key bellwether heading into the 2026 midterm election. Typically, the party opposite of the party that controls the White House wins the Virginia governor’s race. Youngkin’s win in 2021 followed Joe Biden’s presidential election a year earlier. The lone exception in recent decades: Democrat Terry McAuliffe’s 2013 victory a year after Barack Obama was reelected to a second White House term.
Back at the restaurant, Ron Taylor, who describes himself as “Christ-centered and spirit-filled,” listened intently to Earle-Sears’ remarks. He serves as the president of the Hampton Roads Black Caucus, which backed Youngkin four years ago.
He doesn’t know where the group’s members will land this year and says they will make their endorsement after they receive the results from a survey sent to both candidates. But Taylor personally is leaning towards supporting her.
“She’s a fighter,” he said.
Supporters cheer for Earle-Sears during a campaign event at the Vienna Volunteer Fire Department on July 1, 2025 in Vienna, Virginia. – Kayla Bartkowski/Getty Images
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