Elon Musk is promising to shake up the midterms with his own political party. Democrats aren’t sweating it.
Musk’s yet-unfulfilled plans to form an “America Party” could threaten Republicans already fighting to defend their seats by razor-thin margins in next year’s midterms elections, Democrats argued, by siphoning off more disgruntled conservatives from Republicans than disaffected liberals from the Democrats.
“I think it leads to a better position for Democrats in what I think was already a pretty good position going into 2026,” Michigan Democratic Party Chair Curtis Hertel said.
Musk was one of President Donald Trump’s biggest benefactors in the 2024 election, spending hundreds of millions to help get him and other Republicans elected. But since his break with the president, Musk has publicly called for primary challengers to Republicans who voted for the One Big Beautiful Bill Act in addition to promising to launch his own third party.
Democrats and Republicans have long complained about the spoiler effect of third parties — like the Greens or Libertarians — in close battleground races. But neither of those parties have been able to muster resources like Musk’s.
And new polling this week from Marquette University Law School found that 40 percent of Republicans say they would be somewhat or very likely to support an America Party candidate in their state or congressional district, as opposed to just one in four Democrats.
Christina Bohannan, an Iowa Democrat who is challenging Rep. Mariannette Miller-Meeks (R-Iowa) for the third time next year, said adding another candidate into the mix could play a potentially decisive role in the rematch.
“This race was so close in 2024 — it came down to just 799 votes out of 413,000, and so it was literally one of the very closest races in the country,” Bohannan said. “So anything that alters the shape of the race in terms of third-party candidates could have an impact.”
The party, which Musk has not yet taken major formal steps to establish, still faces several procedural and strategic hurdles. But should he go through with it, the former Department of Government Efficiency chief suggested his party could “laser-focus” on two to three Senate seats and eight to 10 House districts to give the third party a sizable enough presence to exercise influence over contentious legislation.
Because of that narrow mandate — and Musk’s particular focus on hitting Republicans on fiscal irresponsibility — the third-party bid could be a vulnerability for the GOP, said Heath Mayo, an anti-Trump conservative activist and founder of the advocacy group Principles First.
“My first reaction was, it seems pretty confined in substance,” Mayo said. “And because of that, I think it pulls some of the following that he has that has sort of found its way into the Republican Party base.”
Musk did not respond to a request for comment sent via email.
Voters regularly overstate how likely they are to vote or join a third party. But recent polling suggests Americans are at least theoretically open to it.
While nearly half of voters say they would consider joining a third party, only 17 percent are interested in joining a Musk-led option, according to polling from Quinnipiac University from earlier this month. But that party could pull disproportionately from the GOP, per the survey, which found that nearly three times as many Republicans as Democrats would consider joining Musk’s proposed third party.
Barrett Marson, a Republican political strategist in Arizona, cautioned that a libertarian-minded candidate backed by Musk could attract support from either direction, putting Democrats in battleground districts at risk too.
“If anyone can be a spoiler or at least put up a candidate who has a chance to in either direction, it’s Elon Musk, because he has the drive and financial wherewithal to match it,” Marson said.
Still, Musk’s ability to successfully field third-party bids will be highly dependent on the particular districts he targets and the candidates he puts on the ballot, said Charlie Gerow, a Pennsylvania-based GOP operative.
“Elon Musk’s money is enough to sway a significant number of elections,” Gerow said. “But you have to look at the individual candidates and the message they run on. There’s a lot of factors that will play into whether or not he’s successful. I think at this stage it’s hard to predict the outcome when we don’t really know what he’s going to do.”
Even if Musk fails to get candidates on the ballot, his bad blood with Trump will be sorely felt by Republicans, who benefited massively from his largesse in 2024.
Ultimately, Democrats are still confident the effort would more than likely play out to their benefit should it come to fruition, said Georgia Democratic Party Chair Charlie Bailey, who is gearing up for one of the most competitive Senate races next year.
“I think if something has Elon Musk’s branding on it, that you’re not going to attract Democrats, and you’re not going to attract many independents,” Bailey said. “I think if it’s got Elon Musk branding, you’re likely to attract the vast majority of right-wing Republicans, so I don’t think those voters are probably that gettable for us anyway.”
