In this article, Nkiruka Nnorom writes that despite the fact that President Trump’s peace plan aimed at bringing the Israeli war in Gaza to an end has scaled the first hurdle, albeit partially, the significant obstacle of getting Hamas to disarm as prescribed in the plan remained and could derail the entire peace process.
Read Also: Israel threatens to resume fighting over bodies of dead hostages
Early this week, Israel and Hamas successfully engaged in a hostage-prisoners swap, fulfilling the first phase of US President Donald Trump’s plan aimed at restoring peace in the Gaza strip.
The hostages-prisoners swap saw Hamas release about 20 remaining living hostages taken during its October 7, 2023 attack on Israel, while the former handed over 1,968 Palestinian prisoners, comprising 250 prisoners serving life sentences and more than 1,700 detainees from Gaza held without charge since the Hamas-led attack, signaling a significant step forward in the pursuit of peace in Gaza and the entire Middle East region.
The breakthrough on Monday came after the ceasefire agreement had suffered two botched attempts since President Trump took office in January. Trump had pledged to broker peace between both parties within days of assuming role as the US president and also end the Russia war in Ukraine. However, efforts at ending both wars have suffered setbacks despite the diplomatic engagements and Trump’s attempts at intimidating some parties in the war into submission.
Trump’s Gaza peace plan in brief
The Gaza peace plan proposed by Trump comprises a phased 20-point plan that boasts of bringing an end to the war. With the exception of Iran, the peace plan has been accepted and endorsed by leaders across the Middle East and Europe.
Under the plan, unveiled at the White House on 29 September alongside Israeli Prime Minister, Benjamin Netanyahu, Gaza would be a deradicalised terror-free zone that does not pose a threat to its neighbours and will be redeveloped for the benefit of the people of Gaza.
The plan stipulates that if both sides agree to the proposal, the war will immediately end with Israeli forces withdrawing to the agreed upon line to prepare for a hostage release.
During this time, all military operations, including aerial and artillery bombardment, would be suspended, and battle lines would remain frozen until conditions are met for the complete staged withdrawal.
It further stipulates that within 72 hours of Israel publicly accepting the agreement, all hostages, alive and deceased, being held by Hamas will be returned. Once all hostages are released, Israel will, in return, release 250 life sentence prisoners plus 1,700 Gazans who were detained after October 7, 2023. For every Israeli hostage whose remains are released, Israel will release the remains of 15 deceased Gazans.
There’s also the requirement for Hamas to lay down its arms, and members of the group who commit to peaceful co-existence and to decommission their weapons will be given amnesty. On the other hand, members of the group, who wish to leave Gaza will be provided safe passage to receiving countries.
Upon acceptance of the agreement, full aid will be immediately sent into the Gaza Strip. At a minimum, aid quantities will be consistent with what was included in the January 19, 2025 agreement regarding humanitarian aid.
As of Monday, the first phase of the plan was met to the delight of jubilant Trump, who boasted of accomplishing a task no one else has been able to undertake in 3,000 years. In his address to the world leaders in Egypt following the hostage-prisoners swap, he also boasted that the peace process could be his “greatest deal”. Israeli soldiers have withdrawn as expected allowing Hamas fighters to regain control of Gaza City.
As part of the proposal, Gaza will be governed under the temporary transitional governance of a technocratic, apolitical Palestinian committee. The committee, according to the plan, will be made up of qualified Palestinians and international experts, with oversight and supervision by a new international transitional body, the “Board of Peace,” which will be headed and chaired by Trump himself, with other members and heads of state to be announced, including Former Prime Minister Tony Blair. The body, according to the proposal, will set the framework and handle the funding for the redevelopment of Gaza until such time as the Palestinian Authority has completed its reform programme.
Overcoming the hurdle
However, as noble as the proposal sounds, international policy analysts have expressed doubt in the efficacy of the peace plan, saying that a significant hurdle of Hamas agreeing to disarm still remained. They noted that, at best, the proposal looked idealistic. A senior Hamas official, Hossam Badran, has already expressed reservations over the second phase of the US plan, saying that it “contains many complexities and difficulties”, thus aligning with the general feeling within the international political and diplomatic space.
According to Professor Marc Weller, Senior Research Fellow, International Law and Governance, Global Governance and Security Centre, “There is as yet no plan to address this very significant spoiling element (Hamas) in Palestine’s political system.
Already, the ceasefire is showing signs of failure due to the delay by Hamas in releasing the remaining bodies of the slain hostages. In response, Israel has started restricting movement of aid into Gaza, allowing only 300 trucks daily as against 600 trucks proposed in the peace plan.
Gaza Peace plan is idealistic – Prof. Otubanjo, Research Professor, NIIA
In his reaction to the development, Prof. Femi Otubanjo, a retired professor of political science and research professor at the Nigerian Institute of International Affairs (NIIA) expressed cautious optimism about the deal, highlighting its complexities and potential challenges.
Though he acknowledged the initial success of the deal, which included a ceasefire and hostage exchange, he questioned the feasibility of the subsequent stages, saying that persuading Hamas to disarm and renounce its claim to governance would be difficult, given its long history of resistance and ideological commitment.
He noted that the proposal seemed idealistic, saying that the assumption that Hamas would simply “melt away” was unrealistic, and would potentially lead to regrouping and continued threat.
According to him, the deal’s success hinged on addressing the Hamas issue properly and building confidence among parties involved, warning that failure could have far-reaching consequences for the Middle East and beyond.
“Of course, the problem that you face is that effectively, the proposal appears to be capitulation. It will lead to capitulation for Hamas because it is expected to lay down its arms and renounce its claim to governance and so on.
“It looks idealistic and unrealistic to me that a group that has fought for decades and got power through the force of arms and has an existing and surviving ideology will simply melt away, abandon its position for which many thousands have died. That’s a critical stage; it’s a difficult stage in the proposal.
“Whether Hamas has agreed tentatively or not, I do not see that that will not create a problem. The proposal stipulates that nobody will be forced out of Gaza and so on. If people are not forced out of Gaza, what do you do with the Hamas soldiers and militants and so on all over the place? So, it’s an idealistic peace programme.
“The first phase looks okay, but my worry is that the second phase involves a great deal of ideological and nationalistic change,” he said.
Hamas must detoxify itself, integrate into political process – Ochogwu, DG, IPCR Nigeria
Dr. Joseph Ochogwu, Director General, Institute for Peace and Conflict Resolution, IPCR, Nigeria, also acknowledged the difficulty in disarming Hamas, but urged the group to detoxify itself of its militant agenda and integrate into the political process.
He warned that if the peace deal fails, it would lead to a humanitarian crisis with disproportionate punishment for the people of Gaza, and a return to violence.
Ochogwu stressed the importance of diplomacy and engagement in achieving peace, citing the role of various countries in the region in facilitating the peace process.
“It is absolutely a difficult situation for an armed group that has controlled a territory over the years to actually disarm and begin to reintegrate formally.
“For decades, they’ve been used to arms and I think that it is perhaps the use of arms also that has actually brought them to the negotiating table in terms of the release of hostages and prisoners. So, I think there is a way, there’s a middle ground they can build,” he said.
He emphasized the need for Israelis and Palestinians to find a way to co-exist, build trust, and confidence, stressing that the two-state solution was the most viable option.
“Hamas must detoxify themselves, disarm and find a way to join the regular political movement for elections, for leadership, and all that. I think that because of the years of enculturation of young people into believing that violence is the option, that makes it a bit delicate.
“So, there is a need to actually begin to rebuild those places, not only the buildings, but begin to rebuild the hearts and minds of the people towards peace, understanding, and trust among the respective communities in those places,” Ochogwu added.
Hamas may regroup – Dr. Babatunde, Research Fellow, IPCR Nigeria
In his submission, Dr. Olalekan Babatunde, Research Fellow and Head of Directorate of External Conflict Prevention and Resolution at IPCR, said the plan could lead to lasting peace in the region if it’s well-implemented.
Regarding the disarmament of Hamas, Olalekan expressed optimism, saying that the group would likely surrender their arms with the presence of multinational forces.
He, however, noted that Hamas’s ideology would persist, with the group’s political leadership either changing or transforming.
He warned that if the peace plan fails, it would dash the hopes of Palestinians, leading to continued suffering, war, and violence.
Hamas cannot simply disappear as political force – Professor Marc Weller
Also highlighting the challenges, Professor Marc Weller, Research Fellow, International Law and Governance, Global Governance and Security Centre, said: “The plan calls for Hamas to accept its own dissolution as both a military force and a civil administration.
“In other instances, demobilization, collection of arms and reintegration of fighters would be a multi-year venture. Here, quite rapid action is expected, with no infrastructure specified other than a reference to ‘independent monitors’.
“The plan foresees the gradual development and then deployment of a freshly trained, untainted police and security force. Again, building up such a force takes months or years. In the meantime, the international stabilization force would need to provide security for the mission (and for Israel).
“It will be difficult for any mission to both restrain and control opposition from within the population, including from remnants of Hamas, while at the same time establishing a trusted policing role.”
“Even if Hamas is disarmed, it will not simply disappear as a political force. Even after the horrors of the present conflict, it still commands some public support in Gaza. There is as yet no plan to address this very significant spoiling element in Palestine’s political system.
“This raises the delicate issue of whether a demilitarized political element of Hamas should or can be absorbed into the umbrella of the Palestinian Liberation Authority (PLO).
“In view of the abhorrent events of October 7, even an unambiguous pledge of non-violence and acceptance of the existence of Israel may not persuade Israel and the Board of Peace that there is a place for Hamas in Palestinian governance.
“But as Iraq again teaches, leaving a significant group out in the cold when searching for a political settlement can be highly dangerous. Violence may seem the only option available to those who have no place in the political process,’ Marc stressed.
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