Bolsonaro’s guilty verdict – what it means for US-Brazil relations

Former Brazilian President Jair Bolsonaro has been convicted of attempting a coup in order to cling onto power following his loss in the country’s 2022 elections.

On Thursday, the populist ex-leader was found guilty by four out of five judges examining the case at Brazil’s Supreme Court, on all five counts he faced, making him the first Brazilian leader ever to be found guilty of an attempt to overturn an election. On house arrest in the lead-up to the verdict, he has now been sentenced to more than 27 years in prison.

Bolsonaro, 70, has always denied the charges against him, but experts say a successful appeal is unlikely.

The landmark trial has set Latin America’s biggest economy on edge, with Bolsonaro’s tens of thousands of supporters denouncing the prosecution as a “witch-hunt” and calling for his release. Others, meanwhile, have rallied in support of the prosecution and have demanded Bolsonaro’s formal arrest.

Washington, DC, too, has kept a close eye on the trial, with President Donald Trump, a close ally of Bolsonaro, making it plain that he is deeply opposed to the prosecution. He cited his displeasure when announcing 50 percent trade tariffs for Brazil in July.

On Thursday, following the verdict, Trump told CNN that he had followed the trial and reiterated his support for Bolsonaro, whom he called “a good man”.

Earlier this week, the White House hinted it could use its “economic and military might” if Bolsonaro was handed a guilty verdict.

Here’s what we know about the verdict and what it could mean for United States-Brazil relations:

What was the verdict and sentence?

Bolsonaro was tried on the following charges:

• Attempting a coup to remain in power

• Involvement in an armed criminal organisation

• Attempting to violently abort Brazil’s democratic rule of law

• Committing violent acts against state institutions

• Damaging protected public property when his supporters charged into government buildings in protest on January 8, 2023.

He has now been found guilty of all five counts and sentenced to 27 years and three months in prison.

Four out of the five Supreme Court justices who heard the case supported a guilty verdict. The fifth had argued that the Supreme Court did not have jurisdiction to hear this case.

Hearings began on September 9 and concluded on Thursday this week when two final judges voted to convict Bolsonaro. A sentence was passed afterwards.

Justice Alexandre de Moraes, who led the case, sided with prosecutors’ arguments that Bolsonaro had planned to assassinate President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva, his Vice President Geraldo Alckmin and De Moraes himself, in an operation codenamed Operation Green and Yellow Dagger.

Investigators presented evidence that Bolsonaro had gathered cabinet and military officials to discuss an emergency decree that would have suspended the October 2022 election results and prompted an investigation of unproven electoral fraud claims, ultimately allowing Bolsonaro to stay in power after he had already lost to leftist leader Da Silva.

De Moraes found that those efforts constituted a coup and cast doubt on the country’s electoral system. He also found Bolsonaro had encouraged the violent protests that broke out on January 8, 2023.

Bolsonaro denied all the charges. The embattled politician, who has been under house arrest at his home in the capital, Brasilia, since August, was not in court during the trial.

Seven of Bolsonaro’s allies were also convicted on related charges of a coup attempt. Their sentences have not been announced, but the judges are expected to convene on Friday to clarify that, according to the local news site, UOL.

Is the verdict likely to be challenged?

Bolsonaro’s lawyer, Celso Vilardi, said the defence team would try to lodge appeals of both the conviction and sentence before all the Supreme Court’s 11 justices.

The court’s press office, responding to reporters, confirmed that according to the court’s jurisprudence, the full court can accept an appeal if there are at least two dissenting votes in a ruling, according to reporting by The Associated Press news agency.

However, only one of the five judges, Justice Luiz Fux, disagreed with prosecutors in the trial and called for Bolsonaro’s acquittal. It is not known if the court will accept an appeal yet.

Al Jazeera’s Lucia Newman, reporting from the capital, Brasilia, on Thursday, said Bolsonaro’s supporters in Congress could also move to have the former president pardoned.

“(They) are already submitting an amnesty law, hopefully to get Bolsonaro off the hook so he won’t have to go to prison at all. Maybe house arrest, maybe no jail time at all. That’s still happening as I speak; it hasn’t (been concluded) yet,” she said.

What happens next, and when could Bolsonaro go to prison?

The court panel now has up to 60 days to formally publish its ruling. After that, Bolsonaro’s lawyers have five days to file motions for clarification, which is a request for clearer language or better explanations of the ruling. That could provide some stalling time for the defence team.

However, once there is a firm sentence, Bolsonaro can go to prison. As ex-president, he will likely be granted special incarceration status and could be detained at the Federal Police’s main building in Brasilia, rather than in a regular prison, according to reporting by AP.

How have people in Brazil reacted?

​​Reactions in Brazil were mixed after the final verdict was reached late in the day on Thursday.

Opponents of the ex-leader and supporters of the ruling Workers Party celebrated across the country. Meanwhile, hundreds of Bolsonaro’s supporters gathered in a vigil near the site of his house arrest to pray for him.

There were earlier fears of violent protests after Bolsonaro’s supporters had rallied in large numbers across the country throughout the week to support the ex-leader. Thousands in support of the trial also held counterprotests.

How has Trump responded?

Trump and Bolsonaro are close allies, and the US president has long expressed his displeasure with the Brazilian government over the trial. He referred to the trial when announcing 50 percent trade tariffs for Brazil.

In July, he also posted on social media that Bolsonaro was “not guilty of anything, except having fought for THE PEOPLE” and told prosecutors to “LEAVE BOLSONARO ALONE!”

He praised Bolsonaro as a “strong leader” who “truly loved his country”.

President Lula fired back, saying “the defence of democracy in Brazil is a matter for Brazilians. We are a sovereign nation. We won’t accept interference or instruction from anyone. We have solid and independent institutions. No one is above the law. Especially those who attack freedom and the rule of law.”

Trump has also compared Bolsonaro’s prosecution to the legal cases he has faced between his own presidencies, including a prosecution for his alleged role in attempting to overturn the results of the 2020 US elections and inciting the riots and invasion of the US Capitol in DC on January 6, 2021 by his supporters.

Following the verdict against Bolsonaro on Thursday, Trump told reporters: “It’s very surprising that that could happen… I can only say this, I knew him as president of Brazil, and he was a good man.”

Could the US take any action?

On Tuesday this week, White House Spokesperson Karoline Leavitt hinted that the US could react economically or even militarily if there was a guilty verdict.

Speaking at an event on Wednesday, Lula again responded. “We are a sovereign country and masters of our own nose. Brazil owes nothing to anyone when it comes to competence, resilience, and capacity,” he said.

In July, the US announced a 50 percent trading tariff for Brazil – even though it has a trading surplus with the Latin American country – citing the charges against Bolsonaro as politically motivated.

The high tariffs were “due in part to Brazil’s insidious attacks on Free Elections, and the fundamental Free Speech Rights of Americans”, Trump had said.

The US State Department also sanctioned Justice de Moraes, who led the Supreme Court panel for Bolsonaro’s trial, in July.

It accused De Moraes of suppressing freedom of expression and politicising prosecutions, including that of Bolsonaro. The judge, alongside his “allies” in the court, is now barred from obtaining a US visa. Any US property De Moraes might own will also be confiscated.

Some experts believe higher tariffs or sanctions, perhaps on government officials, could follow Bolsonaro’s guilty verdict.

What does this mean for Brazil-US relations generally?

Bolsonaro’s trial has soured relations between the leaders of the two countries.

Some Brazilian officials, including Lula, have denounced the US’s interference in the Bolsonaro case, and say the former leader should be tried for attempting to turn the US against his own country.

Lula, meanwhile, initially called for talks between the two nations. However, following the July tariff escalation by the US, the Brazilian president told reporters that there was “no point” in attempting to reason with Trump. The levies, Lula said, were imposed without conversation and done in an “authoritarian” manner.

On August 11, Brazil filed a request for dispute mediation to the World Trade Organization, complaining about the high tariffs. Brazil is also considering taking the Trump administration to a US court.

Separately, Lula has criticised US naval forces’ deployment in the Caribbean since August.

The US says its military forces are in the region to counter drug trafficking. However, the deployment comes as US threats against the government of Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro, whom US President Donald Trump’s administration has accused of being closely linked with drug trafficking groups, have ramped up. Some see the military buildup as a pretext to attack Venezuela.

“The presence of the armed forces of the largest power in the Caribbean Sea is a factor of tension,” Lula said on Monday, during the opening of a virtual summit of the BRICS group (Brazil, Russia, Iran, China, South Africa).