ALBANY, New York — Empire State Republicans are careening toward a messy gubernatorial primary — and so far President Donald Trump hasn’t stopped it.
The looming battle between Rep. Elise Stefanik and Nassau County Executive Bruce Blakeman is spurring some GOP officials to urge the president to clarify where he stands amid fear that a bruising intraparty will doom their chances next year.
“A primary doesn’t help us at all, but I think at the end of the day the president is going to have to weigh in,” said Republican Assemblymember Josh Jensen, who is backing Stefanik’s bid. “A lot of Republican voters are going to be very interested in what he has to say.”
Only Trump has the immense power to short circuit a primary in his native state. Publicly he isn’t exercising it.
Behind the scenes, Trump spoke with Blakeman about running in the days leading up to his announcement, according to reports in The New York Times and New York magazine. Two people who spoke with POLITICO and are familiar with the exchange, though, said Trump never explicitly told Blakeman not to run. The White House did not comment for this story.
Further complicating matters, the president this week effusively praised Stefanik and Blakeman as “two fantastic people” — going as far as suggesting that a primary may ultimately produce a battle-tested nominee.
“I hope there’s not a lot of damage done,” Trump told reporters. “Sometimes it works the other way — the victor ends up being much stronger.”
On Friday in the Oval Office with Stefanik for an event with the 1980 “Miracle on Ice” hockey team, Trump said “she has a hell of a shot” at winning the race, but noted the House lawmaker has “a little competition with a very good Republican.”
Though polls show Gov. Kathy Hochul handily leading Stefanik, the New York governor’s race stands to be a crucial factor in the midterm elections. The state is home to several swing House seats, and both parties want to field a strong top of the ticket in order to bolster down-ballot candidates in key races. Which party controls Congress will shape the final two years of Trump’s second term.
His public equivocation over the race has created a major headache for Republicans eager to recapture the governor’s office for the first time in 20 years — and a desire for the president to wield his considerable influence on Stefanik’s behalf. The drama is testing the limits of how far Trump will go to aid Stefanik, one of his most enthusiastic Congressional allies who shot to national political fame as a stalwart enforcer on Capitol Hill.
The dynamic also underscores the sheer power Trump wields even over longshot races in a Democratic dominated state like New York.
Blakeman’s entrance into the race has scrambled Stefanik’s political calculus, complicating a campaign built almost exclusively on aggressively attacking Hochul. Republicans are already disadvantaged in this deep blue state by a massive voter enrollment gap. A closed party primary poses another liability by pulling whoever emerges as the nominee to the right in order to solidify a conservative base.
The situation has again put Trump at the center of New York’s political pageant with the leverage to determine the fate of two allies he has known for years.
“They’re all golf buddies, you know what I mean?” Republican operative Bill O’Reilly said of Blakeman. “I think he’s going to allow this. My sense is he’s not going to throw his body between them.”
New York Republicans, for now, have not mounted a formal effort to dissuade Blakeman from pressing on with what is shaping up to be a bloody primary. Only two clear scenarios to avoid one exist: Either Trump pushes someone out or the February state party convention produces an overwhelming favorite.
Unlike some Republican primary fights, this one will not test a MAGA candidate against a more traditional GOP opponent. Stefanik and Blakeman are both closely aligned with the president.
The 41-year-old Stefanik’s rise in Congress has been closely intertwined with her Trump support. Stefanik stridently defended him during his first impeachment and Trump declared her a rising star. During his second term, the president nominated her to become his United Nations ambassador only to drop the effort amid a messy process to fill her seat and concerns the GOP House majority was too narrow.
Blakeman, 70, has taken a more circuitous route to power. He served as a Port Authority commissioner and ran unsuccessfully for the U.S. Senate and New York City mayor. He has been an ardent Trump supporter — touting his county police department’s close work with federal immigration enforcement efforts. The silver-maned Blakeman, who would fit Trump’s oft-stated description to see people out of “central casting,” describes himself as a pro-choice Republican — a stance that puts him crosswise with conservative voters, but potentially makes him more palatable in an open general election.
Stefanik has predicated her campaign on attacking Hochul as the nation’s worst governor — a tagline that has become a virtual trademark — while avoiding details about her own Albany agenda. Her first campaign video stood in contrast to Blakeman, who in his launch touted his record leading a purplish suburban county and name-checked the president, describing both Trump and himself as “strong leaders.”
Trump, who toyed with running for office in New York before setting his sights on the White House, has spent much of the last year meddling in the state’s political affairs. His Department of Justice dropped a corruption case against New York City Mayor Eric Adams, and the president offered a last-minute endorsement of former Gov. Andrew Cuomo’s unsuccessful mayoral bid.
The president also held a surprisingly chummy Oval Office meeting with Mayor-elect Zohran Mamdani, a democratic socialist who he has sharply criticized as bad for the city. The jovial meeting undercut Stefanik’s argument that the incoming mayor is dangerous and Trump told reporters he disagreed with her assessment that Mamdani is a “jihadist.” The Trump administration also has sought to end a controversial Manhattan toll program known as congestion pricing while also negotiating energy policy with Hochul.
Top New York Republicans, including state party Chair Ed Cox, want to avoid a bruising primary battle and continue to predict Stefanik has a direct path to the general election. Cox expects Stefanik will have enough organizational muscle to crowd out Blakeman at the state GOP convention in February, which would make her the lone Republican candidate facing Hochul. Stefanik’s team has asserted she has locked up roughly 77 percent of the weighted vote to deny Blakeman automatic ballot status in the June primary.
Trump hasn’t ruled out an endorsement and while speaking with reporters pointed to the upcoming state convention as a potentially clarifying moment for the candidates.
If Blakeman fails to reach a 25 percent threshold of Republican convention goers, he will have to petition his way on to the ballot. His campaign spokesperson on Thursday declined to say whether the Nassau County executive is prepared to petition his way onto the ballot, dismissing the scenario as a hypothetical question.
The petitioning process is costly and time consuming, but not impossible: Carl Paladino’s insurgent 2010 bid went the petition route, and he ultimately defeated former Republican Rep. Rick Lazio. Some GOP officials acknowledge a lot can still happen between Blakeman’s launch and the convention.
“Things can change between now and February,” said GOP Assemblymember Ed Ra. “That’s the process.”
Early polling has been scant, but a Siena survey earlier this year found Blakeman losing to Hochul by a wider margin than Stefanik, who enjoys far higher name recognition among voters.
New York Republicans have not won a statewide election since George Pataki secured a third term in 2002 and remain shut out of power in Albany. Former Rep. Lee Zeldin’s 2022 bid — campaigning almost exclusively on an anti-crime platform — came within 6 points of unseating Hochul.
That year, Zeldin competed in a four-person primary, which some Republicans believe hobbled his general election effort.
“It’s a waste of time and money,” said Chris Tague, an upstate Republican leader and state lawmaker. “It’s just crazy to come in at this point. We can’t afford any distractions. As bad as a governor as Kathy Hochul is, as Republicans we can have no distractions. This has to be a perfect race.”
The uncertainty surrounding the Republican convention has escalated GOP concerns over an intraparty feud — and a desire among Stefanik backers for Trump to make clear where he stands in the race.
“Maybe the president does need to clarify this to say, ‘this is who I want,’” said Republican state Sen. Dan Stec. “Whether he does so publicly or privately is up to him.”
Having Trump as a political benefactor in the race can be a double-edged sword, though. The president is deeply unpopular in New York, and Democrats plan to motivate their voters this year over opposition to his policies. Hochul on Thursday appeared practically giddy over the GOP fight, saying a Trump-endorsed nominee would be “another message for the campaign.”
Party leaders are eager to yoke the GOP nominee to Trump — and the president offering his blessing to a specific candidate will only provide more fodder.
“It’s going to be akin to taking a first class room on the Titanic,” said Democratic Chair Jay Jacobs said. “That ship is going down.”
Bill Mahoney contributed to this report.
