TALLAHASSEE, Fla. — Florida could be the final state the White House can count on to pick up additional seats as part of the rare mid-decade redistricting cycle it has pushed ahead of the midterm elections.
The Republican-controlled state officially entered the fray this past week by holding a legislative hearing, kick-starting a lengthy process that will stretch into the new year. Florida is following the lead of GOP-led states like Texas, Missouri and North Carolina that have enacted new congressional maps at President Donald Trump’s behest to protect the GOP’s narrow House majority.
But as Democratic states like California follow suit with new district lines of their own and GOP efforts in states like Indiana have been rockier than anticipated, the advantage Trump and his allies thought they could gain through the push could be much smaller than they initially hoped.
That’s where Florida comes in. Though all elements of the state government are dominated by Republicans, infighting between some lawmakers and Gov. Ron DeSantis has gotten messy and appears poised to have some impact on the state’s redistricting effort. In addition, Florida’s state constitution has anti-gerrymandering language — though watered down in recent years — that broadly bans lawmakers from redrawing maps with the intent of helping or hurting certain political parties.
Those thorny legal issues are among the reasons the White House applied less pressure on Florida to draw a new map than it did on other states, and why the state is one of the last to begin its process. DeSantis has long urged lawmakers to redraw Florida’s congressional map but has said the state should wait for the U.S. Supreme Court to rule on a Louisiana case that could erode a key provision of the Voting Rights Act that was enacted to protect minority voters.
DeSantis said that if the court further weakens the Voting Rights Act, that would “necessitate new congressional redistricting.”
DeSantis and Florida Senate leaders have said they would like to hold a special legislative session to redraw districts in April, which could be just weeks before the April 20 qualifying deadline for federal candidates. It would also put them at odds with state House leaders, who have quarreled with DeSantis on a range of issues. They have said that any new map should be considered during the regular legislative session that begins in January.
“It would be irresponsible to delay the creation and passage of a new map, especially until after session,” said state Rep. Mike Redondo, a Republican who chairs the state House’s redistricting committee. “It would also be irresponsible to any who are called to civil service, and most importantly it would be irresponsible to the citizens of Florida.”
Redondo’s committee met for the first time on Thursday, holding a brief meeting that offered no time for public comment for the dozens of protesters who traveled to Tallahassee to express their concerns about the abrupt redistricting process.
The meeting focused on how the process would work and featured no conversations about specific map proposals, which have not yet been filed.
Republican leaders tried to downplay the notion that the redistricting push had anything to do with overt politics, even though the White House has pushed the effort nationally and other state lawmakers have openly stated the goal is to maximize partisan advantage.
“Let me be very clear: Our work as a committee and as a legislative body is not directed by the work of other states or partisan gamesmanship,” Redondo said.
During Thursday’s meeting, activists who packed the committee room audibly laughed at the contention that politics was not driving the process. None were given time to address the committee during the meeting.
“It’s a publicly noticed meeting and people are here,” Jessica Lowe-Minor, president of the Florida League of Women Voters, said of those who traveled to Tallahassee not being allowed to speak. “It seems like if there’s time available, it would have been reasonable for the committee to take testimony, especially since people traveled a long way to be here.”
It is expected, according to three veteran Republicans who spoke with NBC News, that a new Florida map could net the GOP anywhere from three to five additional House seats, but approaching a five-seat pickup could trigger legal concerns. Republicans currently represent 20 of the state’s 28 congressional districts.
“That number [five] I think could get us into some trouble, and I think we need to be very careful,” said a veteran Republican operative closely following the redistricting process, who was granted anonymity to speak candidly. “There are a lot of national implications for all of this, and Florida is unique in what it can and can’t do.”
The seats mostly likely be be affected are an Orlando-area seat currently held by Democratic Rep. Darren Soto and two South Florida seats held by Democratic Reps. Jared Moskowitz and Debbie Wasserman Schultz.
Florida could give a key boost to Republicans nationally ahead of the midterms, especially considering the White House-inspired redistricting project has not gone as smoothly as officials there once thought it would.
The U.S. Supreme Court on Friday said that a new Texas map that was drawn to give the GOP a five-seat boost could be used during the midterms, overturning a lower court ruling. In Indiana, the state House passed a new congressional map Friday that could net Republicans two seats. But its fate is unclear in the Senate, where some Republicans have resisted the push.
In Ohio, Republicans agreed to a map that could give them a slight boost, but did not go as far as Democrats feared. In Utah, a court-ordered map will likely lead to a new seat for Democrats. And Republicans in states like Kansas, Nebraska and New Hampshire have declined to join the fray.
In addition to California’s new map, Democrats in Virginia have taken steps toward revamping congressional boundaries to boost their party. And other Democratic-led states like Illinois and Maryland are still considering whether to pursue redistricting.
“With a narrow majority heading into a midterm, they need more seats for a buffer in order to hold the House. If they can ultimately net five or six seats, then it will be the story of the midterms of success for Republicans,” a GOP strategist who is deeply involved in House races told NBC News last month as it became clear the process might not be a clean win for Republicans.
“If the whole thing here was to net one seat across the country, then it will not have been worth it,” the person added.
This article was originally published on NBCNews.com
