California voters on Nov. 4 will play a big role in deciding which party controls the U.S. House of Representatives for the final two years of President Donald Trump‘s time in office.
Citizens of the nation’s most populous state are weighing in on Proposition 50, a constitutional amendment pushed by Democratic Gov. Gavin Newsom that would allow the state the chance to temporarily stop using a nonpartisan commission that draws their U.S. congressional district boundaries. Instead, California could use lines drawn by its Democratic state lawmakers in Sacramento that would increase their party’s chances of winning more seats in Congress.
Both major political parties are rushing to redraw their congressional boundaries in at least a dozen states in an unprecedented push to determine which party will control the U.S. House after the 2026 midterm elections. Trump has pushed state lawmakers from Texas to Indiana to Missouri to redraw their maps to make them more favorable to the GOP in anticipation of historic trends in midterm elections that favor the opposition party that doesn’t control the White House.
More: How Proposition 50 can change California elections and shift Trump’s strategy
“What we have here – a redistricting to find additional seats for one party at the behest of the president – is really something quite novel,” said Matthew Levendusky, a political science professor at the University of Pennsylvania.
So how did we get here?
Speaker of the House Mike Johnson talks to reporters during a news conference on the 29th day of the federal government shutdown at the U.S. Capitol on Oct. 29, 2025 in Washington, DC.
Republicans hold a razor-thin majority in the U.S. House and historically, the party that controls the White House fares poorly in midterm elections.
During the 23 midterm elections since 1934, the president’s party gained seats just three times, according to the American Presidency Project.
More: Why Trump’s political war in Texas is much bigger than the Lone Star State
If Democrats take control of the House in the mid-terms, like when they won 40 new seats in the 2018 election during Trump’s first term, it would likely mean congressional investigations, legislative paralysis − even possibly a third Trump impeachment.
Republicans keeping control of the House would allow the president to continue one of the most aggressive and disruptive agendas in modern presidential history.
Texas Sen. Jose Menendez and fellow Democratic lawmakers hold a news conference in Boston on Aug. 6, 2025, after leaving their state to deny Republicans the quorum needed to redraw the state’s congressional districts.
Over the summer, Trump began pushing state lawmakers in Texas, which has the largest Republican controlled delegation in the country, to redraw district lines to edge out some of the 12 Democrats who represent the state.
After some drama – Democratic lawmakers fled the state – the Texas legislature approved new maps which created five new Republican-leaning congressional districts. The new lines face several federal lawsuits.
California, which has the largest Democratic delegation in the country, responded by moving to redraw it’s own districts, essentially cancelling out Texas’ efforts.
Under Texas law, the state Legislature draws the Congressional district boundaries. But, under California’s current Constitution, a nonpartisan commission draws the lines, so lawmakers have to get voter approval to change the constitution.
Daniel Alcozar of Fillmore casts an early vote in the Nov. 4, 2025, election that asks voters to pass or reject Proposition 50’s temporary redistricting plan. Alcozar supports the measure.
More: California redistricting fight has voters pushing back – against Trump and Newsom
California’s Proposition 50 seeks to let the legislature redraw the state’s congressional districts through 2030 to create five more seats favorable to Democrats. The map is already complete and public.
Aren’t other states doing this?
Protestors demonstrate on the steps of the Missouri Capitol Building on September 10, 2025 in Jefferson City, Missouri. Activists and concerned voters descended in the Missouri Capitol to protest the current plan on redistricting maps ahead of the midterm elections.
Normally, states redraw district boundaries after the U.S. Census occurs every ten years. Changes are generally only made between each census if someone challenges the boundaries in court and wins.
Along with Texas, Republicans have turned their new map into law in Missouri — though voters may have the opportunity to reject the Show-Me State’s changes in a special election. Ohio is also in the process of redistricting, and Republicans in North Carolina, Kansas, and Indiana are moving toward redrawing their maps.
Democratic leaders have joined the effort, pushing blue states to draw new lines to help their party too. Democratic-controlled legislatures in Illinois, New York, and Maryland have been considering moves, too, with varying degrees of interest among party leaders.
It’s still too soon to know if more states will follow suit, but federal level officials in both parties continue to push their state level counterparts to act.
According to the National Conference of State Legislatures, at least 11 states explicitly prohibit mid-decade redistricting, while other states explicitly allow it.
Will the results be known election night?
Protesters form a human banner on Ocean Beach in San Francisco, California on Oct. 18, 2025 supporting California’s Proposition 50 redistricting ballot measure and opposing President Donald Trump during nationwide “No Kings” demonstrations.
If the margins are wide, Americans could know if Proposition 50 passed on election night.
But California has a history of taking a long time to count ballots, and voters tend to turn out in large numbers even for special elections (To be fair, there are 23 million registered voters there.)
So, if the margins are close, a final result could take weeks.
Proposition 50 seems poised to pass, favored by 20 points in an Emerson College poll taken Oct. 20-21.
A statewide survey released Oct. 28 by the Public Policy Institute of California found that 56% of California likely voters said they would vote yes on the proposition. The survey also found that regardless of their position on the proposition, most voters said they believe the outcome is very important.
The survey also found that approval ratings for Trump in California remain low and that Californians identify political extremism or threats to democracy as the most important problem facing the nation.
“About nine in 10 likely voters say the outcome on the vote of Prop. 50 is at least somewhat important, including two in three who say it is very important,” PPIC researcher Deja Thomas, said. “Notably, we’ve not seen such a high level of importance placed on a ballot proposition since the survey began measuring this over 20 years ago.”
What does this mean politically?
California Gov. Gavin Newsom walks with President Donald Trump upon his arrival at Los Angeles International Airport to tour areas impacted or destroyed by the southern California wildfires. Jan. 24, 2025.
Every seat counts in the 2026 midterms. Democrats currently need to gain just three seats to win control of the House.
California’s new boundaries could negate the new seats Republicans expects to win under Texas’ new map. If Proposition 50 passes, there will likely be more pressure on other states to redraw their districts.
More: Clues for the midterms and 2028? Watch VA, NJ, CA now. (Maybe.)
Beyond 2026, Newsom has a lot riding politically on his bid to get the state’s voters to agree to redraw its political maps as a way to push back on Trump, namely his potential 2028 presidential campaign.
He made his clearest comment yet about his future plans “CBS News Sunday Morning” Oct. 26, when he was asked whether he would give a presidential run serious thought after the midterms.
“Yeah,” he said, adding that saying otherwise, “I’d just be lying, and I can’t do that.”
How does the Supreme Court factor in?
Demonstrators rally in front of the U.S. Supreme Court on Oct. 15, 2025, as the justices hear oral arguments involving voting rights.
The Supreme Court is currently weighing whether electoral districts can be created to protect the voting rights of minorities without discriminating against voters of other races.
Their decision could restrict a key provision of the landmark Voting Rights Act enacted 60 years ago that tries to keep legislative map drawers from diluting the votes of racial minorities by either packing them into one district or spreading them out among too many districts to have an impact.
Republican lawmakers in Louisiana, which the case is focused on, are considering legislation to push back the state’s 2026 primary elections by a month. That could give lawmakers extra time to redraw the state’s House district lines if the Supreme Court strikes down the current boundaries.
Other states, particularly those with high Black populations, could join the redistricting fight depending on the Court’s decision.
Isn’t redistricting normally about changes to a state’s population?
A ballot drop box in San Francisco ahead of the vote on Proposition 50.
Yes, redistricting is usually tied to the state’s population.
Every 10 years a census of the nation’s population is taken and the number of representatives each state has is rebalanced. Then, each state redraws the congressional and legislative boundaries to account for how their population has changed. For example, the 2020 census showed California’s population had dropped and Texas’ population Texas increased. That meant California got fewer members of Congress and Texas got more.
But, what is happening right now has nothing to do with population changes. There are still going to be the same number of congressional seats in each state.
Texas, California and other states redrawing their boundaries right now are intentionally, and vocally, changing which citizens are in which districts so there is a greater chance of the state’s majority party winning more seats in the U.S. Congress – and therefore whether Democrats or Republicans are in power for Trump’s final two years as president.
What does it mean for the future?
Republican Texas State Representative David Lowe wears a button with the words “Big Beautiful Map” during a session as Democratic lawmakers, who left the state to deny Republicans the opportunity to redraw the state’s 38 congressional districts, begin returning to the Texas State Capitol in Austin, Texas, on Aug. 20, 2025.
Political experts like Levendusky are concerned that once the norm is broken for redrawing districts in the middle of a decade it could become a routinely-used political tool.
“Especially in a closely-divided House, this will up the pressure to continue to do this in the future, where both parties look to eke out the maximum gain from every state,” he said. “The losers are the voters in the political minority in a state who no longer get their voices heard by their elected officials.”
What do Californians think?
Despite signs that mark hallways and entrances at the Ventura County Government Center in Ventura, early voting for the Nov. 4, 2025, statewide election started out slow. Voters are being asked to approve or reject redistricting in Proposition 50.
USA TODAY Network reporters spoke to Californians about a month before Election Day and found that many were frustrated, angry and wanting to push back against Trump or Newsom − from the rural, Republican North State to liberal enclaves along California’s coast.
What is this special election costing?
San Diego, California residents carry their Proposition 50 ballots to the Registrar of Voters on Oct. 27, 2025.
Proposition 50 is the only item on the ballot for this special election, which is expected to cost $282.6 million in taxpayer funds, according to the California Department of Finance.
Democrats have poured money into convincing voters to approve the initiative. It is already one of the most expensive ballot fights in state history.
This article originally appeared on USA TODAY: California set to have a big say on Trump’s final two years in office
