Former Gov. Andrew Cuomo has cut in half the double-digit lead of heavy favorite Democratic nominee Zohran Mamdani with a week to go in the New York City mayor’s race, according to a new Suffolk University poll.
Cuomo, an independent candidate who has trailed Mamdani by more than 20% in a September poll, is now behind by 10%, the latest Suffolk poll released on Oct. 27 revealed.
Mamdani, a democratic socialist state assemblyman, is ahead of Cuomo 44% to 34% in the days leading up to the Nov. 4 election, the poll of 500 voters surveyed by phone between Oct. 23 and Oct. 26 showed. Republican nominee and independent Curtis Sliwa remains steady in third place at 11%.
In September, Suffolk’s poll had Mamdani leading Cuomo 45% to 25%, followed by Republican nominee Curtis Sliwa with 9%, and incumbent Mayor Eric Adams at 8%.
Adams has since dropped out of the mayoral race and is now endorsing Cuomo. As a result, a majority of Adams’ votes have gone to Cuomo, said David Paleologos, who directs Suffolk’s Political Research Center and led the new NYC mayor’s poll, told USA TODAY.
While Mamdani currently has a sizable lead, the new poll adds some suspense to the widely watched mayoral race for America’s most populous city. While Cuomo does have some momentum, for him to beat Mamdani, he will need those voters supporting Sliwa to swing his way, Paleologos said.
When Sliwa voters polled this month were asked for their second choice for mayor, they preferred Cuomo to Mamdani by an overwhelming 36% to 2%, Paleologos said.
“Cuomo needs to appeal to Sliwa’s voters. You have this big, powerful Democratic (candidate), and at the 11th hour, the only people who can save him are Sliwa voters who are Republican, so there’s some irony here,” Paleologos said. “They favor Cuomo, and part of the reason is they are anti-Mamdani and more conservative. Maybe they are Trump voters, so they are going to support anybody who is the potential GOP nominee.
“But Cuomo has to make that appeal,” Paleologos said. “He’s still an underdog, and everything has to fall right for him. He is beginning to stage a comeback, though.”
A Cuomo spokesperson on Oct. 27 said the poll shows “momentum is on our side.” The Mamdani campaign did not immediately return USA TODAY’s message seeking comment about the poll.
Cuomo sees big gains among Hispanic and independent voters, Suffolk poll shows
Cuomo’s most dramatic gains have come from Hispanic voters, where he now leads in the Suffolk poll by 1%, after trailing Mamdani by 30% in September, Paleologos said. Cuomo has also flipped independents where he was down 18% in September into a 10% lead in the October poll, Paleologos added.
Paleologos said he doesn’t know specifically why Cuomo is doing well among Hispanics. The pollster said he’s not sure whether Cuomo is doing a direct appeal to them, “if it’s a cultural thing,” or something they liked during the contentious debates.
“But there clearly was a shift. Some Hispanic voters are also more conservative, as we learned during the 2024 presidential election,” Paleologos said. “Maybe they are leaning toward the more moderate candidate with more government experience.”
From rival to supporter: Mayor Eric Adams endorses Andrew Cuomo for NYC mayor to stop Zohran Mamdani
Cuomo’s camp believes momentum is on their side
The new Suffolk poll resembles what Cuomo’s campaign has seen in the past month, Cuomo spokesman Rich Azzopardi said.
“Today’s Suffolk University poll shows exactly what we’re seeing on the ground: This is a two-man race, momentum is on our side,” Azzopardi said in an emailed statement to USA TODAY. “And the more New Yorkers learn about how dangerously inexperienced Zohran Mamdani is  ‒ and about his extremist agenda  ‒ the less they like what they see.”
Azzopardi said he believes early voter turnout is also going in Cuomo’s way.
“And it’s clear that Andrew Cuomo’s message of competent leadership ‒ along with his agenda to increase public safety, end the housing and affordability crisis, and strengthen our economy and education system  ‒ is resonating,” Azzopardi said. “Andrew Cuomo will not stop fighting for every vote in every corner of this great city between now and Election Day. Together, we can and will win the fight to save the city.”
Pollster said Mamdani is still within reach of winning
Even though Cuomo has sliced Mamdani’s lead in half, according to the Oct. 27 Suffolk poll, Paleologos said Mamdani is still in a position to become New York City’s next mayor. The good news for Mamdani there may not be enough undecided voters to swing Cuomo’s way, despite his 10% in the new poll.
The poll began on the same day House Democratic leader Hakeem Jeffries endorsed Mamdani for mayor, Paleologos noted.
A blow to Cuomo: House Democratic leader Hakeem Jeffries endorses Zohran Mamdani for NYC mayor
“Mamdani’s support hasn’t really dropped. What it shows me is he’s just not growing as strong as Cuomo,” Paleologos said. “The good news for Mamdani is he’s very close to being at the number he needs to win.
“He probably needs 46%- 47% of the vote to get the win,” Paleologos added. “He’s right there.”
This article originally appeared on USA TODAY: Poll shows Cuomo cuts Mamdani’s big lead in half in NYC mayor’s race
