House Republicans in the toughest races in the country aren’t on board to extend expiring Obamacare subsidies yet.
The Cook Political Report, a nonpartisan election handicapper, detailed seven House Republican races in the “toss up” category ahead of the 2026 midterms. The races are likely to be close next year and even a small shift could decide the House majority. Republicans currently hold a six-seat margin that’s slated to shrink to five when a newly elected Democrat is sworn in.
The shutdown resulted from a disagreement between Democrats and Republicans over what to do about expiring enhanced Obamacare subsidies. The enhanced tax credits, which a Democratic Congress created in 2021, are nonetheless popular in Republican states. Their extension could help offset major insurance premium spikes across the country. Democrats are pushing for their renewal.
But how do the most vulnerable Republicans in the country feel about an extension? Their answers shed light on whether there will be increased pressure on Republican leadership and President Donald Trump to strike a deal.
Some of the seven Republicans in “toss up” races have said they are open to talks, but only if Democrats agree to reopen the government first. Only one has signed on to bipartisan efforts to extend subsidies. Some also say the subsidies shouldn’t become permanent because they believe they are a bailout to insurers.
Overall premiums are expected nationwide to increase by 18 percent next year compared to 2025, according to an analysis from the health policy research firm KFF. However, if the subsidies were renewed that would decrease by 4 percentage points.
The overall premium spikes could vary from district to district and depend on other factors such as age.
Republicans have spoken to House leadership on the issue. Two of the lawmakers on the Cook toss up list, Reps. Ryan Mackenzie (R-Pa.) and Juan Ciscomani (R-Ariz.), were among 13 Republicans who wrote to House leaders on Oct. 21 pressing Speaker Mike Johnson to turn to a subsidy deal right after opening the government. The rest of the letter’s signatories were in less competitive districts. Some of those on the toss-up list who didn’t sign the letter are very conservative.
All seven Republicans are facing challenges from Democrats but only one, Rep. Scott Perry (R-Pa.), has drawn a GOP primary challenger.
Here’s what the Republicans who may have the most to lose told POLITICO:
Pennsylvania 10th District; the capital Harrisburg and environs
4 percent of 792,599 residents on ACA exchanges
Perry, a former leader of the hardline conservative House Freedom Caucus, said he is only in favor of an extension of the subsidies with major changes.
He said insurers are already raising rates by a high amount, anyway.
“The insurance companies are raising the prices and intended to raise the prices before any of this happened regardless,” said Perry, who won his last reelection by less than 3 percentage points.
Perry said that he is willing to discuss the subsidies if Democrats agree to open the government first. But Perry wanted some key conservative policy changes attached to a deal. This includes allowing insurers to sell plans across state lines and take advantage of laxer regulations in some states.
A group of three Democrats are vying for a chance to challenge Perry next fall. In his bid for an 8th term, he also faces a primary from a Republican challenger, Karen Dalton.
Pennsylvania 7th District; Allentown and environs
4 percent of 788,445 residents on ACA exchanges
Mackenzie said in a statement to POLITICO that he supports extending the ACA subsidies but with some caveats.
He called for an income cap to “ensure that subsidies aren’t going to high-income earners,” the statement said.
When the Affordable Care Act was created, it included income-based subsidies to lower insurance costs. There was a cap on eligibility, though. Anyone who earned more than 400 percent of the federal poverty level got no help at all.
The enhanced subsidies — which a Democratic Congress created in 2021’s American Rescue Plan Act and extended through this year via 2022’s Inflation Reduction Act — lifted that income cap so anyone would get help regardless of income.
Several other Republicans have echoed Mackenzie’s point, and the lawmaker emphasized Democrats need to open the government first.
A collection of five Democrats are battling to get their party’s nomination and face MacKenzie in the general election next fall as he tries for a second term.
Arizona 6th District; Tucson suburbs and the state’s southeast corner
5.2 percent of 833,838 residents on ACA exchanges
Ciscomani joined 10 other House Republicans before the shutdown on a bipartisan bill to extend the ACA subsidies for another year.
“Democrats created this healthcare cliff and now want to use the shutdown to force Republicans to bail them out of their own mess, on their own terms,” Ciscomani said in a press release Tuesday. “I won’t play that game.”
Ciscomani did not return a request for comment.
A group of five Democrats are running for a chance to win the seat, with a primary slated for August. Ciscomani is running for a third term.
Iowa 1st District; Farm country southeast of Des Moines
4 percent of 804,704 residents on ACA exchanges
Miller-Meeks comes from one of the most contested House districts in the nation. She won reelection in 2024 by nearly 800 votes and initially won her seat in 2020 by six votes.
She has not endorsed extending the ACA subsidies, calling them a bailout for insurers during a call with reporters, according to a report in the Gazette newspaper of Cedar Rapids.
Miller-Meeks has also said the subsidies are Covid-19 pandemic relief that were never meant to be made permanent. There are three Democrats running in a primary to face her next year.
Miller-Meeks did not return a request for comment.
Wisconsin 3rd District; Minneapolis exurbs and the “driftless area” of the state’s southwest
5.2 percent of 740,873 residents on ACA exchanges
Van Orden won reelection to a second term in 2024 by more than 12,000 votes. He said Democrats have created the problem with the subsidies.
“The Democrats voted for the ACA subsidies during the Biden administration, and they voted to have them expire,” he said according to a report in the Wisconsin-based TV station WQOW. “So they did this.”
He has already drawn Democratic challenger Rebecca Cooke, whom he defeated in the 2024 election.
Van Orden did not return a request for comment.
Michigan 7th District; the capital Lansing and environs
4 percent of 792,585 people on ACA exchanges
Barrett, who was first elected to his seat in 2024, told local media shortly after the shutdown that he favors talks on a subsidy extension but not before the shutdown is over.
Like other Republicans, Barrett blamed Democrats for setting the subsidies’ expiration date, according to an interview with local TV station WLNS.
Barrett has already drawn two Democratic challengers.
His office didn’t return a request for comment.
Colorado 8th District; suburbs north of Denver up to Greeley
3.6 percent of 757,119 residents on ACA exchanges
Evans’ office didn’t return a request for comment on whether he supports an extension of the ACA subsidies.
He has blasted Democrats repeatedly about the shutdown, calling out his state’s two Democratic senators for voting to deny federal workers a paycheck.
Evans is expected to face a Democratic challenger in his bid for a second term. Currently there are four vying for the nomination.
