A new poll finds Democrat Abigail Spanberger has an eight-point lead over Republican challenger and Lt. Gov. Winsome Earle-Sears in the Virgina governor’s race, seen as a national bellwether election.
In a Suffolk University poll of likely voters released Oct. 23, Spanberger garnered 51% of the vote among survey respondents, followed by Earl-Sears’ 43%. Another 3% said they were undecided.
The survey comes less than two weeks ahead of the Nov. 4 Election Day. Current governor Republican Glenn Youngkin is reaching the end of his first four years leading the state, and is barred from running in this year’s election by a unique state law that prevents governors from serving back-to-back terms.
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Virginia Democratic gubernatorial candidate, former Rep. Abigail Spanberger, arrives on stage at a campaign rally at the Jefferson Theater October 20, 2025 in Charlottesville, Virginia. The Commonwealth of Virginia will hold its off-year election for governor and other statewide offices on November 4.
The Commonwealth is heralded as a national indicator when it comes to its gubernatorial elections, held just a year into a presidential term. Virginia has elected a governor of the opposite party as the president every election cycle since 1977, except in 2013. Many eyes are on the race to gage whether a referendum is in store for the Republicans in next year’s midterms, and if they will be able to maintain their slim majority in Congress.
Early voting in Virginia began on Sept. 19 and the poll suggests that nearly one in four votes for governor has already been cast.
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The poll was conducted between Oct. 19 and 22, surveying 500 likely voters across Virginia. It has a margin of error of 4.4 percentage points, meaning even the 8-point spread between the candidates might have happened by chance.
Spanberger is a former CIA officer and served three terms in Congress as a representative for the state’s 7th Congressional District, which includes parts of central and northern Virginia. She was the first Democrat to represent the district, redrawn after her second term, since 1970, and while in the House, she honed her reputation as a centrist.
She faces Lt. Gov. Earle-Sears, a Marine Corps veteran and a former representative in the Virginia House of Delegates. Earle-Sears was elected lieutenant governor in 2021, alongside Youngkin, and is the first woman and Black woman to hold the position.
Whoever wins will become the first female governor of Virginia
Lieutenant Governor of Virginia Winsome Earle-Sears speaks on the day Republican presidential nominee and then-former U.S. President Donald Trump host a campaign rally at Salem Civic Center in Salem, Virginia, U.S. November 2, 2024.
In the statewide survey, 57% of women supported Spanberger, compared to 38% for Earle-Sears. Spanberger also led Black voters by a 78-point margin, with the support of 87% of those polled, compared to Earle-Sears’ 9%. Spanberger pulled ahead among independent voters, nabbing 57% of support while her Republican challenger had 32%.
Other Democratic candidates running for statewide positions did not fare as well.
Jay Jones, whose Democratic candidacy for attorney general is embroiled in a text scandal, was supported by 42% of those polled, while Republican Jason Miyares was backed by 46%.
In the race for lieutenant governor, Democrat Ghazala Hashmi was in a dead heat with Republican John Reid, both with 44%.
Contributing: Karissa Waddick, USA TODAY.
Kathryn Palmer is a politics reporter for USA TODAY. You can reach her at kapalmer@usatoday.com and on X @KathrynPlmr.
This article originally appeared on USA TODAY: Abigail Spanberger leads in Virginia governor race, new poll shows
