‘2027: Jonathan Weighs ADC Option Amid Comeback Reports’ – News Report, October 5, 2025.
“All political parties die at last of swallowing their own lies” – Dr John Arbuthnot, 1667-1735.
Former President Jonathan is the toughest opponent President Tinubu can face in 2027. The other leading contenders have serious problems deciding who will be presidential or vice-presidential candidate in case they decide to join forces. Already, Obidients, living in a fool’s paradise, and the supporters of Atiku, as well as Kwankwaso, are similarly self-deluded that they can go alone.
But, of all those experiencing political hallucination, those still clinging to the Peoples Democratic Party, PDP, are the worst. They stubbornly stick to a corpse called political party. They are the only people who are not aware that the party is dead. For reasons clear to me, the few people left in the PDP cannot come to terms with the fact that their party is dead; that almost half of the people now in the All Progressives Congress, APC, were once their party chieftains – who are not prepared to leave certainty for uncertainty. Even if they want to jump ship and desert APC, their most likely next destination is not PDP but ADC.
Jonathan, quite rightly, must have sensed this and that is why he is gravitating towards the African Democratic Congress, ADC; to me, that is the wisest choice Jonathan can make. And, he might just be the ideal candidate for the new party. Let me count the ways Dr Goodluck Jonathan could create problems for the APC.
Economy in 2015 and 2027
“Even God cannot change the past” – Agathon, 447-401 BC.
Were Nigerians better off in 2015 than now and the foreseeable future? I asked several hundred people this question without disclosing why and the answer was astonishing. Everybody said that they were far better off in 2015 than now. Furthermore, they have no hope that things will change sufficiently by 2027 to make them feel better. Bearing in mind that 2015 represented the low point of the Jonathan administration, it is clear that Tinubu will have a tough time convincing Nigerians that he can manage the economy better than GOJ. All Jonathan has to do is to assemble a crack team of economic advisers and influencers to carry his message and he make mince meat of Tinubu. In reality, the facts support him. Tinubu might claim, quite rightly, that he inherited an economy on the brink of bankruptcy. But, the economy at death’s door was handed to him by Buhari, the first APC President – not Jonathan.
At any rate, the major economic indices favour Jonathan. Here are a few to ponder.
Irrespective of what the leaders of the APC might say about Jonathan, it is almost impossible for them to deny that average Gross Domestic Product, GDP, was about 5.5 per cent from 2010-2015. In fact, GDP growth in Jonathan’s worst full year, 2014, was far better than the average for the eight years of Buhari administration and two full years of Tinubu government. Exchange rate was under N200/US$1 when Jonathan left office; today it is hovering around N1,500/US$1. Because rice serves proxy for all other food items, it is a fact that rice was selling for about N8, 000 per 50kg bag in 2014, it has risen to N60, 000 per 50kg bag. Petrol was about N240 per litre; now it is ranging from N850 to N1, 200 per litre depending on whether Dangote, NNPCL and PENGASSAN are not at war. There is no need to list seriatim all the prices of commodities then and now. Those of us who lived through all the years and are blessed with good memories remember how things were then and now.
Nigeria was definitely not the poverty capital of the world in 2015. That undesirable title was the result of the APC ‘change’ agenda.
“Good government…has for its objects the protection of every person within its care in the greatest liberty consistent with the good order of society…’’ – US President Grover Cleveland, 1837-1908
Even on insecurity, Jonathan has already admitted his failure regarding the kidnapping of Chibok girls – which remains a national shameful tragedy till today. But, he can also rightly claim that herdsmen impunity to carry guns and perpetrate genocide nationwide was unknown during his tenure of office. In fact, he might also be able to claim that serious insecurity was limited to certain areas in the North, whereas, now, it is nationwide. In fact, some types of crime threatening national security at present were virtually unknown in 2014.
On infrastructure, GEJ can certainly claim that many of the good roads – Benin to Sapele, Owo-Ifon, Calabar-Itu, Lagos-Kogi, Ibadan-Ife, Jebba-Mokwa, Abuja-Kaduna etc – he left have become death traps in twelve years of APC. Again, there is no need to mention all the roads that have since gone from good to bad to worse.
Fuel subsidy removal: 2012 remembered
“Life does not always move in a straight line. It is sometimes like a boomerang.’’
Perhaps Jonathan’s strongest attack against Tinubu will centre around fuel subsidy removal. Very recently, former Governor Fayemi, APC, publicly admitted that he and others in the defunct Action Congress of Nigeria, ACN, opposed the policy in 2012 when proposed by Jonathan even when they knew it was the right thing to do. Frankly speaking, it is difficult to see how Tinubu can now take full credit for this policy – bearing in mind how much Nigeria lost in 11 years, 2012 to 2023, to the fraud associated with fuel subsidy. Why would patriotic people oppose a proposal they know is in the national interest. That is the question Jonathan would be asking them to answer.
Most acceptable southern candidate to the North
There must be a divine blessing attached to the name Goodluck. Right now, for those northerners, who might be inclined to allow the South to complete two terms, Jonathan is the ideal candidate. Peter Obi had promised to serve only one term. But, nobody believes him. Once voted into office, he would most likely mobilize a mass movement similar to the ‘Go On With One Nigeria’, GOWON, of the General Gowon regime in the 1970s. Obi might mean it seriously, but, few politicians would believe him.
Jonathan, meanwhile, has one term under his belt. He can only go one more. That makes him the safest southern bet – that is if he can run again. There are obstacles in the way.
What is to be done?
‘2027 Presidential Poll: Court asked to restrain Jonathan, INEC’ – VANGUARD, Tuesday, October 7, 2025.
“It is quite impossible for those who want to gain power to avoid getting rid of those people who are most likely to form an opposition” – Critias, c404 BC.
The easiest way to avoid a head-to-head contest between Tinubu and Jonathan is to get the former President disqualified. I was not surprised to read that someone has made a move in that direction. One only hopes that the courts will act at the appropriate time to determine Jonathan’s eligibility. That said, I think the suit filed is premature. Jonathan has not declared his interest in running; neither has he announced the party on whose platform he will run. The mere fact that the suit was filed buttresses the point being made here – Jonathan is the biggest threat to Tinubu.
Tinubu and Jonathan have work to do. As expected, Tinubu has gone on the offensive. Bayo Onanuga speaks for the President more than anybody else. Some people might not like how he has gone about defending the interest of his boss. But, everybody should remember that politics is war without firing guns; and all is fair in war. Personally, I have no objection to how the Senior Special Adviser has quickly sent a message to Jonathan – “if you can’t stand the heat; get out of the kitchen”.
The ball is now in Jonathan’s court. But, before proceeding, he would be best advised to consult widely – especially among constitutional lawyers; who can give him the best advice on the matter of eligibility. Although the typical politician is a shameless individual, having reached the peak once, a former President should not be caught in the embarrassing situation of throwing his hat into the ring; only to have it tossed out in the Supreme Court. As Duc de Levis, 1764-1830, has reminded all of us, “Nobility carries its obligations.” Ideally, a former President should seek to get into the ranks of statesmen and stay above partisan politics. But, if the urge is still there to return to the field, he still needs to understand that his conduct is expected to rise above those of political brawlers. Decorum is required.
Obviously, it is still not clear whether or not he can run again. But, if Jonathan runs, it will be a stiff contest. As shameless as politicians are, it is not out of the question that some high profile politicians in the South-East and South-South, who had decamped to APC, might re-port themselves again and join Jonathan wherever he goes.
As for me, I can’t wait for that contest; it will be the political battle of the century.
Seconds out!!!
•Follow me on Facebook @ J Israel Biola.
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