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Progressive challengers plan to use Israel’s war in Gaza as a cudgel against centrist candidates in 2026’s Democratic primaries, a broad campaign that will disrupt the party’s plans to focus the high-stakes midterm elections solely on opposition to President Donald Trump.
After two cycles in which pro-Israel groups spent heavily against left-wing candidates, insurgent Democrats believe the mood has changed. Their party’s base is growing more opposed to the war, and in that climate, they expect ads paid for by the American Israel Public Affairs Committee and its allies to alienate Democratic voters.
“People are very impatient to see an end to that war,” said Matt Dunlap, a former Maine secretary of state who on Monday launched a challenge to centrist Democratic Rep. Jared Golden.
Dunlap saw Golden’s support from AIPAC, and his votes to continue sending offensive weapons to Israel, as a “mixed bag” in the Republican-leaning district. “I think support for that is eroding quickly,” he added, “because people see what’s happening on the news.”
In more strongly Democratic seats, where most primary challenges are unfolding, progressive candidates have preemptively denounced AIPAC and promised not to seek its support, or have otherwise broken with party leaders on Israel.
“I am not taking a dime from AIPAC,” said California Democrat Angela Gonzales-Torres in an endorsement video from Justice Democrats, the left-wing group that helped elect the progressive “Squad” in 2018. She’s challenging incumbent Democratic Rep. Jimmy Gomez.
In St. Louis, where former Rep. Cori Bush announced a comeback bid last week, loud protests at Rep. Wesley Bell’s town halls were an early indicator that the support he’s gotten from AIPAC — the biggest funder of his 2024 win, through its United Democracy Project super PAC — might be a political problem.
In Detroit, Rep. Rashida Tlaib created a joint fundraising committee to route donations to her and state Rep. Donavan McKinney, who’s condemned Rep. Shri Thanedar, D-Mich., for supporting military aid to Israel. Last year, AIPAC helped Thanedar defeat his primary challengers with a last-minute, $2.3 million super PAC investment.
“We’re sending billions overseas for bombs and weapons to kill families and children when we have starving families here at home,” McKinney told Semafor in a recent interview, as he campaigned at a street fair in the district. “I’ve even got Republicans who follow me, saying: Yo, this is kind of extreme. What’s going on? To malnourish a population, to ensure that they don’t have resources? These kids are dying!”
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In the 2022 and 2024 cycles, pro-Israel groups swung into Democratic primaries, spending money against progressive critics of the Jewish state and keeping several out of Congress.
Their first test came in a Cleveland-based district where Nina Turner, a close ally of Sen. Bernie Sanders, was the favorite to beat local party chair Shontel Brown. Democratic Majority for Israel ran $2 million worth of ads and direct mail to primary voters about Turner’s criticism of Joe Biden; an AIPAC affiliate donated $500,000 to Brown.
When Turner lost, pro-Israel groups came away with a replicable strategy: identify Democrats who might become a problem in Congress, and beat them before they do.
“My race was the canary in the coal mine,” Turner told Semafor. “In 2021, I don’t think the country had a full understanding of dark money groups like AIPAC. But now, just as a Democrat worth their salt now would not take NRA money, we need to make that the case that they shouldn’t take it from any of these Israel-first or Israel-only groups.”
That was not a popular position in 2022 and 2024, when progressives strained to convince voters that the groups attacking them for being disloyal to the party or to Joe Biden were not trustworthy. In 2022, Israel and Gaza were not prominent topics in any race. In early 2024, support for Israel’s war was very high, if lower among Democrats.
That has changed, emboldening progressive candidates. Polling released by The New York Times last week found that 73% of all Democrats, and 74% of all voters who backed Kamala Harris in 2024, oppose sending “additional economic and military support to Israel.” Polling for The Washington Post last month found 63% of Jewish Democrats disapprove of “the military action Israel has taken in Gaza.”
Usamah Andrabi, the spokesman for Justice Democrats, said that the shift had given “an edge and more power” to challengers critical of Israel.
“It’s a totally different cycle,” he said. “Public opinion has gone from not knowing enough about these issues and AIPAC to opposing sending weapons to Israel and demanding members of Congress reject AIPAC.”
The View From Pro-Israel groups
Brian Romick, the president of Democratic Majority for Israel, said that the terrain had gotten rockier since 2024. His group supports an end to the war, and has encouraged Hamas to take the deal offered by the White House, a position shared by party leaders but not progressive activists.
“This is obviously a difficult moment, but as we have always said: supporting Israel is good policy and good politics, and that has not changed,” said Romick. “Polls go up and polls go down, but Israel has long been our friend and ally, and that’s not going to change.”
Marshall Wittmann, the spokesman for AIPAC, said that “Americans stand with Israel because they understand that the Jewish state is fighting a just and moral war” against the terrorism of Hamas.
David’s view
Pro-Israel groups weren’t the only ones pushing back against the progressive wing of the Democratic Party in primaries. But their decision to go big in 2022 and 2024 was tremendously important. They helped Rep. Haley Stevens, D-Mich., beat her colleague Andy Levin, in part, because Levin was a vocal, Jewish voice against American pro-Israel policies. Those groups broke primary spending records in 2024 to unseat Bush and Jamaal Bowman, and sent a message: Candidates who talked about a “genocide in Gaza” would lose.
Progressives have struggled to counteract that, lacking both the money and a clear storyline. (Ads from DMFI and AIPAC-related PACs rarely mentioned Israel, focusing on topics that played better in the districts.) They still don’t have endless resources.
But they are looking at a Democratic primary electorate that has soured on war funding for Israel, and on its pro-Israel leadership. When Charlamagne tha God mocked Hakeem Jeffries as “AIPAC Shakur,” they realized that anti-AIPAC, anti-super PAC messaging had clicked outside of their base.
Progressives don’t know how the Israel/Gaza issue will play next summer, much less in 2028. They don’t know whether it becomes a litmus test for Democrats. But in the short term, telling voters that you won’t seek AIPAC’s support or that you question why Israel needs no-strings-attached war funding is a powerful argument in a primary, and it wasn’t before.
Notable
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In The New York Times, Annie Karni looked at how Jeffries and other Democrats view AIPAC as an “increasingly toxic brand.”
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In the Midcoast Villager, Alex Seitz-Wald talked with Dunlap about why he saw Golden as vulnerable, and the Maine seat as winnable for a progressive.
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In Politico, Adam Wren caught up with Michigan’s Mallory McMorrow, who has stepped up her Israel criticism: “I’m not accepting AIPAC support. I’m not seeking their endorsement. I’ve never accepted their support.”
