In the days immediately after the Oct. 7, 2023, attacks, I asked a U.S. official how long the ensuing conflict was likely to last.
They reproached me, gently, for my choice of words.
“The ‘conflict,’” they said, “has been going on for decades. The ‘war’ is a different question.” The official then predicted this latest fight between Israel and the Palestinian militants of Hamas would last three to six months. It was the longest timeframe anyone gave me, and it wasn’t remotely pessimistic enough.
In the two years since, everyone from government officials in Western capitals to displaced Palestinians in Gaza have had their hopes of ending the war repeatedly dashed. But that has changed over the past few days as the world has digested the basics of President Donald Trump’s peace proposal for Gaza. Hamas’ announcement Friday that it was prepared to free the remaining Israeli hostages, though it wants to negotiate other parts of the plan, added to rising hopes.
Officials, analysts and other Middle East watchers tell me the Trump plan has a solid chance at success.
This sentiment is nowhere near euphoria; this is the Middle East, after all, and two of the critical players, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and the Hamas militant group, have incentives to keep fighting. Trump had warned Hamas that the group would face “all hell” if it didn’t agree. After the Hamas offer to free the hostages Friday, Trump indicated he was open to talking and turned his demands to Israel, saying on social media, “Israel must immediately stop the bombing of Gaza, so that we can get the Hostages out safely and quickly!”
The 20-point plan’s contents and structure offer even skeptics of Trump’s peacemaking efforts a reason to consider optimism. Palestinians in Gaza, as well as veteran policymakers, are particularly desperate to see an immediate ceasefire take hold as demanded by the proposal.
“This deal would at least stop the killing of civilians for now and rescue the remaining Israeli hostages, and that would make me happy,” said Tom Malinowski, a former assistant secretary of State for human rights in the Obama administration. “As for ending a war that sustains both Hamas and Netanyahu, it has that potential, too, so long as Trump is clear-eyed that both sides will have incentives to undermine it.”
One reason some Middle East doyens are positive about the proposal is Trump’s personal investment in it.
Yes, the U.S. president has made it clear he wants a Nobel Peace Prize. But aside from that, he will be chairing the “Board of Peace” that will oversee the implementation of much of the plan. Although he’s likely to leave the technical matters to others, having such a high-profile role is an ego boost that could drive Trump to stay focused on ensuring the proposal’s implementation.
Some current and former U.S. officials suggested to me that the possibility that Trump, or members of his family, could financially benefit from future rebuilding in Gaza could further entice him to keep the pressure up on both sides.
According to the proposal, “a Trump economic development plan to rebuild and energize Gaza will be created by convening a panel of experts who have helped birth some of the thriving modern miracle cities in the Middle East.” Trump’s son-in-law Jared Kushner, who has billions of dollars in investment partnerships tied to the region, is one of the architects of the peace proposal. The plan also calls for “a special economic zone” to be established in Gaza.
“With the deal’s potential, Trump may be literally invested,” one former Biden administration official told me. (I granted this person and several others anonymity because the topic was sensitive and some people were not authorized by their employers to speak publicly.)
It may sound strange that such people are cheered by the prospect of what is arguably government corruption. But with the body count in Gaza well over 65,000, not to mention the suffering of Israeli hostages and families of fallen Israeli troops, some current and former U.S. officials are willing to take advantage of Trump’s deal-loving, transactional worldview.
Or, as the former Biden administration official put it: “Whatever keeps him interested.”
The plan indicates that Trump has backed off some of his most radical ideas for resolving the war. Trump had previously called for Palestinians to be exiled from Gaza and for the territory to be turned into an American-run resort — an idea that created an uproar among Palestinians, many foreign officials and human rights activists. This latest Trump peace proposal says Palestinians can stay and help Gaza thrive economically.
Another aspect of the plan spurring hope is its international nature. Trump is known for go-it-alone, “America First” solutions. But this plan ensures that other countries — beyond just the United States and the battling parties — have a stake in the outcome. That could make it harder (though not impossible) for Netanyahu and the militants of Hamas to defy its terms.
The proposal envisions a future technocratic administration for Gaza that includes Palestinians and experts from other countries. That body would be overseen by the “Board of Peace” that, while, chaired by Trump, will include other heads of state. Former British Prime Minister Tony Blair is also expected to play a key role.
The U.S. is further pledging to work with other nations, including Arab states, to build an “International Stabilization Force” to deploy in Gazan areas Israel has cleared of Hamas. Indonesia has already offered troops. And “regional partners” — mainly Arab countries — are expected to ensure that Hamas lives up to its obligations under the proposal. Similar international peacekeeping teams were suggested in the Biden administration’s various long-term plans.
“It means more people have skin in the game, and we’ll see new people, rather than just the traditional players,” one Arab diplomat told me, pointing to interest from countries such as Pakistan and Turkey.
Here’s the reality check you may be anticipating:
This 20-point proposal is, at best, a framework for a future agreement or set of agreements. Many of its pieces need to work in conjunction with one another, a tough balancing act. At every step, politicians, militants and maybe even a financier or two will have incentives to slow down the plan or derail it. Everything will come down to implementation.
Already, Arab governments are frustrated at changes pushed into the document by Netanyahu, which they say could act as poison pills. Many officials and analysts are wary because the proposal doesn’t explicitly lay out a path to create a Palestinian state.
But the proposal also manages to put Hamas in a corner while still giving its members a chance at survival, a feature that could incentivize the group to agree to its terms.
Remember, two years ago, Israelis traumatized by Hamas’ killing of 1,200 people on their soil were talking about killing every last militant in the group and destroying “evil.” This was never realistic. Although Israel has severely weakened Hamas and decapitated much of its leadership, the group has recruited thousands of new members.
The proposal offers Hamas members amnesty if they disarm and “commit to peaceful co-existence.” Those militants who wish to leave will be allowed to go into exile. Under the plan, the group will have no role in governing Gaza.
Trump heaped on the pressure by warning Hamas that he’d let Israel keep up its attacks on the group if it did not quickly agree to the plan.
There’s also a chance to establish piecemeal ceasefires.
I found this passage particularly striking: “In the event Hamas delays or rejects this proposal, the above, including the scaled-up aid operation, will proceed in the terror-free areas handed over from the [Israel Defense Forces] to the [International Stabilization Force].”
This means Israel can fight Hamas in parts of Gaza while leaving other areas to rebuild and that sections of the overall plan can start to be put into motion, perhaps in anticipation of an eventual Hamas surrender. And if Palestinians see areas of Gaza become safe havens, that could further encourage them to turn on Hamas.
No less than Antony Blinken, the secretary of State during the Biden administration, said on a Tuesday podcast that this clause is “grounds for optimism.”
“People in Gaza, given the horrors of the last two years, at least there’s a chance that they would rally to that,” said Blinken, who also asserted that the Trump plan was similar to one crafted under President Joe Biden.
To make any of this plan’s various pieces work will require a lot of further negotiations on details. And the Trump administration is not known for its attention to detail.
The administration hasn’t looped in most of the State Department to the initiative; there hasn’t even been a cable to the Middle East bureau, multiple U.S. officials told me. That means the experts — the people who can hash out, say, how to bring aboard the so-called independent monitors the plan calls for — have yet to be asked for help.
I asked the White House about this, and a senior Trump administration official responded that there were reasons the information was closely held, including preventing leaks.
“All the appropriate people will be included at the appropriate time,” said the official, whom I granted anonymity because the topic involved internal deliberations. “The goal right now is peace in the Middle East.”
This type of messy fog is not unusual or insurmountable for early stage international negotiations, especially in the Middle East, where, as one analyst put it, “You never get a ‘yes.’ You get a ‘yes, but …’”
At the very least, with the Trump plan, we now have something relatively concrete to turn to, even though it might need quite a lot of adjusting. (Or waiting for a new Israeli prime minister, a second former U.S. official opined to me.)
Ultimately, “if the plan fails now, it’s a basis to work off in the future,” the Arab diplomat said.
The plan — if agreed to, implemented and held to — could end the immediate war. It also takes a limited shot at ending the broader conflict between Israelis and Palestinians.
So while I’m not asking people for timeframes these days, I don’t mind indulging in some hope.
