The Nigerian naira held a broadly fragile tone on Thursday, trading with a modest gap between the official Nigerian Foreign Exchange Market (NFEM) and the parallel market as market participants weighed improved dollar flows against persistent demand pressures.
Key rates (today):
- NFEM (official): ₦1,483 per US$1.
- Parallel market: ₦1,490 per US$1.
The official NFEM rate – the volume-weighted figure derived from interbank trading and published by authorities – showed the naira trading around ₦1,483 to the dollar on Thursday, a small move from levels seen in the immediate prior session. Traders say the official window remains sensitive to CBN liquidity operations and order flows on the electronic matching system.
In the parallel market, market-aggregators put the naira at roughly ₦1,490 to the dollar, leaving a spread of about ₦7 between the two windows. That spread is materially smaller than the double-digit differentials seen during earlier bouts of market stress, and points to a partial convergence between the formal and informal segments — though the parallel market continues to serve customers who cannot access the formal window.
Market analysts attributed today’s relative calm to a mix of modest foreign currency inflows (including diaspora remittances and import receipts) and CBN interventions that have helped cap sharp intraday swings. Global currency moves also played a role: the US dollar was broadly steady in international trade on Thursday after recent volatility in global markets.
What traders are saying:
Dealers contacted by business desks said demand from importers, students and travellers remains the dominant driver of volumes in the parallel market, even as banks and authorised dealers manage most corporate flows through NFEM. Several analysts warned that the convergence is fragile and will require sustained inflows, deeper FX liquidity and clearer policy signals for the naira to stabilise sustainably.
Outlook:
Short-term forecasts from market commentators expect the dollar to trade in a narrow band around ₦1,480–₦1,495 in the official window and ₦1,485–₦1,500 in the parallel market over the coming days — contingent on steady dollar supply and no abrupt change in demand.
Policymakers’ ability to continue measured interventions and to deepen FX market liquidity will be key to keeping volatility in check.
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