Virginia Lt. Gov. Winsome Earle-Sears (R) is leaning into cultural issues in her bid for governor, though some see it as a risky strategy in an off-year election likely to be dominated by economic concerns.
Earle-Sears in particular has attacked her Democratic rival, former Rep. Abigail Spanberger, over transgender issues, especially in regard to schools. This week, the lieutenant governor’s campaign rolled out an ad labeling Spanberger as being for “they/them” and supporting policies that allow “men in girls locker rooms” and parents to be unaware when their children seek gender-affirming care. In another ad, Earle-Sears accuses Spanberger of wanting “boys to play sports and share locker rooms with little girls.”
The strategy of invoking trans issues played well for Republicans in 2024, and Gov. Glenn Youngkin (R) arguably won in 2021 on the parents’ rights issue. But critics question whether Earle-Sears’s message is meeting the moment when the cost of living and jobs are dominating voters’ concerns.
“One of the common complaints or observations as to why she hasn’t been catching fire is because there’s really been no overarching message or theme or even positive vision for the future,” said one GOP strategist. “It’s been pretty reactive, and the problem with that is when you don’t have your own message or your own brand, you are at the whim of the national winds.”
Recently, Youngkin waded into the issue as well, seizing on reports from ABC’s Washington, D.C., affiliate WJLA that a registered sex offender, which the outlet identified as transgender, had been accused of exposing themselves to multiple women and children at Arlington Public Schools locker rooms.
“No girl should have to be exposed to this kind of depravity. This is who the far left thinks should be in your daughter’s locker room. Virginia parents – your children’s safety is literally on the ballot this November. Vote like it,” Youngkin said in a post on the social platform X.
Earle-Sears echoed Youngkin’s remarks in her own X post on Friday.
“Abigail Spanberger says we have to accept anyone who identifies as a woman — even predators like Richard Cox — as real women. Look where that insanity has gotten us,” Earle-Sears wrote.
Youngkin’s 2021 election was won, in part, on the issue of parents’ rights as the country was emerging from the coronavirus pandemic. The then-Republican gubernatorial nominee tapped into parents’ newfound concerns about what their children were being taught in the classroom after being exposed to their children’s school curricula during the pandemic lockdowns.
The issue became particularly prominent in the race when Youngkin’s opponent, former Gov. Terry McAuliffe (D), said at a debate that he did not believe parents should be telling schools what they should teach.
Republicans continued to incorporate transgender issues into their campaign messaging in 2024, focusing on the debate over trans women in sports. Polls show a majority of Americans believe that athletes should only be allowed to play on teams that align with the gender that was assigned to them at birth.
Some Virginia Republicans say the issue should be a no-brainer for any political candidate running, arguing that it cuts beyond party lines.
“The Earle-Sears campaign is smart to drive the issue because it’s not a complicated one to explain to the electorate,” said Zack Roday, a Virginia-based Republican strategist who formerly worked with Youngkin’s Spirit of Virginia PAC.
“This is such an opportunity for Democrats,” he continued. “And because Virginia is the first test case after a presidential election, it’s such an opportunity to be a leader.”
An NBC News poll released earlier this year found that 75 percent of Americans surveyed said they did not believe trans women should be allowed to participate in women’s sports. Another 25 percent said they believed trans women should be allowed to take part in women’s sports.
“We are really working to expand the Republican coalition, and this is a key issue in expanding that coalition,” said Mark Harris, a senior strategist with Earle-Sears’s campaign. “There’s a broad array of folks in Northern Virginia and elsewhere who just fundamentally disagree with this very progressive extreme take.”
Spanberger addressed the issues of trans women participating in women’s sports, as well as using female bathrooms, in an interview with WSET-TV in Roanoke.
“So in Virginia, until very recently we have had a process in place where on an individual, one-by-one basis, schools, principals, parents, coaches were making decisions based on fairness, competitiveness and safety, where a child might be able or might not be able to play in a particular sport,” Spanberger told the outlet.
When asked whether she would back legislation that would allow transgender women in female bathrooms and to play on female sports teams, Spanberger said she “would support a bill that would put clear provisions in place that provide a lot of local ability for input, based on the age of children, based on the type of sport, based on competitiveness.”
The Democratic nominee went on to cite her own status as a mother of three daughters as an example of how she understands concerns over the issues.
“I recognize the concern that families and community members might have about the safety of their own kids, about competitiveness, about fairness,” Spanberger told the outlet. “And I think the process that was in place for 10 years was one that was working. It was one that took individual circumstances and individual communities into account, and I think that is the process that Virginia should continue to utilize.”
Overall, Spanberger has remained highly focused on the issues of rising costs and federal employment in Virginia following the Trump administration’s widespread purge of government jobs under its Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE).
Earlier this week, in the wake of conservative attacks over the issue, Spanberger rolled out an op-ed in The Washington Post on DOGE’s impact on Virginia’s economy. The state is notably home to a large swath of federal employees given its proximity to Washington, D.C., and its military presence.
According to recent polling out of Virginia, the economy is top of mind for the state’s voters. A Christopher Newport University poll released last week found that 21 percent of Virginia voters said that inflation and the cost of living were their top concern, followed by threats to democracy at 18 percent and K-12 education, immigration, and crime each at 9 percent.
Spanberger’s strategy appears to be paying off in the polls. The Decision Desk HQ polling average of the race has Spanberger leading Earle-Sears with 50.1 percent support to 43.1 percent.
Some Republicans note that Earle-Sears’s strategy of focusing on trans issues may not be salient enough this cycle and may end up being insufficient. The GOP strategist who criticized Earle-Sears’s approach noted that Youngkin offered a broader vision in 2021, telling voters that he wanted to “make Virginia the best place to live, work and raise a family.”
“He put everything in that context,” the strategist said. “He had a day one game plan where he had plans for education and the economy.”
The strategist noted that Youngkin’s message on parental rights and education is often the main takeaway from his campaign, but there were other important messages, including repealing the state’s grocery tax.
Earle-Sears’s allies maintain that she is talking about other issues.
“Whether it’s the gas tax, whether it’s the Virginia Clean Economy Act that has resulted in much higher electricity bills, we have talked about, will continue to talk about those issues,” Harris said. “It is the case that voters can walk and chew gum at the same time.”
Veteran Virginia political analyst Bob Holsworth, on the other hand, said it is almost as if the Earle-Sears campaign has become a “one-note campaign.”
“If you look at her website and what she says every day, it’s all about Abigail Spanberger and boys in girls’ locker rooms,” he continued. “It just seems to me that this is not the dominant issue in Virginia today.”
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