Every four years, when the country is between national elections, politicians and political insiders turn their attention to two states: New Jersey and Virginia.
In both states, candidates have prioritized affordability and attempted to present themselves as the change agents voters broadly desire.
Since last November, Democrats have been surprisingly successful in the handful of special elections that has taken place, including a race for Wisconsin Supreme Court. They won two state Senate elections in Iowa and a state Senate race in Pennsylvania, all three of these races coming in districts Trump carried.
In New Jersey, where GOP candidate Jack Ciattarelli is running, the overarching question is whether his 2021 results — winning 48 percent of the vote and nearly upsetting incumbent Gov. Phil Murphy — was a fluke, or harbinger of growing GOP support in a usually reliably-blue state.
Ciattarelli’s Democratic opponent, Rep. Mikie Sherrill currently is leading the polls — 49 percent to 41 percent per Quinnipiac — but the race will likely go down to the wire.
Sherrill, a moderate Democrat and Navy veteran, will have to find a way to overcome high levels of dissatisfaction towards the Garden State’s extremely high cost of living. Recent polling from Rutgers revealed that 85 percent of New Jersey residents disapproved of the state’s approach to affordability, while a similar 80 percent said the same about taxes.
That said, despite efforts to link her to higher taxes, more spending and the state’s affordability crisis, the data suggest that she is making a strong case for herself.
To that point, the Quinnipiac poll showed that a majority (52 percent) of New Jersey voters say Sherrill has” good leadership skills” and a similar 50 percent agree that she “cares about the needs and problems of people like you.”
Further, Democrats have two advantages that may help Sherill pull out a victory.
First, President Trump is extremely disliked in the state — just 30 percent of voters have a favorable view of the president, versus 59 percent who have an unfavorable one per Rutgers polling — and Ciattarelli has supported Trump in the past.
Second, by a 12-point margin — roughly 860,000 voters — registered Democrats (37 percent) outnumber Republicans (25 percent) in New Jersey, according to the state’s official figures.
There is one caveat to these figures. Beyond Ciattrelli’s surprising performance in 2021, Trump himself improved his vote share in 2024 versus the prior two elections.
Last year, Trump lost the Garden State by only 6 points, down from 16 points and 14 points in 2020 and 2016, respectively, underscoring his gains with the state’s 2.4 million unaffiliated voters.
As such, Democrats are taking no chances. The Democratic National Committee has spent $3 million boosting Sherrill, more than it has ever spent in a New Jersey race, according to the New York Times. That is also notably more than the roughly $2.5 million Republicans have spent.
In Virginia, Democrat Abigail Spanberger is carrying a lead similar to Sherill’s, with the RealClearPolitics polling average showing the CIA veteran leading incumbent Lt. Gov. Winsome Earle-Sears (R) by 7 points (49 percent to 42 percent).
That lead has narrowed a bit from earlier this year, when Spanberger consistently held low double-digit leads, although she remains ahead of her Republican opponent.
Much like New Jersey, the race in Virginia will come down to the cost of living, which was by far the most important issue to voters (28 percent) in a recent poll from Virginia Commonwealth University.
In many ways, the situation in Virginia is a mirror image of New Jersey. Voters are upset with the incumbent’s handling of the economy and cost of living, and desire a change.
While slightly better for Trump than in New Jersey, his approval numbers in Virginia may negatively impact Earle-Sears as they will Ciattrelli.
In Virginia, only 39 percent of voters approve of Trump’s job performance, versus 58 percent who disapprove, according to Christopher Newport University polling.
One critical difference, however, is that Virginia Gov. Glenn Youngkin (R) is viewed more positively than New Jersey’s Gov. Phil Murphy (D), which is likely why Spanberger’s lead has narrowed whereas Sherrill’s has remained consistent.
Another off-year contest worth watching is in California, where Gov. Gavin Newsom (D) has put the question of redistricting on the ballot this November. Polls have consistently shown that Californians oppose partisan redistricting, but the issue tests much better when framed as a referendum on Trump.
Newsom has staked a significant amount of political and personal capital on the successful passage of this referendum. If he is able to carry this over the finish line, it may augur well for Democrats, but it will be immensely helpful to Newsom, who will be catapulted into frontrunner status for Democrats in 2028. Should the vote fail, however, Newsom will take a considerable hit to his political standing, and it may hurt his chances of winning the Democratic primary.
Taken together, if these races go to the Democrats, this will give them positive momentum looking ahead to the midterms, despite the lingering challenges still facing the party on a national level.
On the other hand, a split or a Republican sweep could cement Democrats’ minority party status for years to come.
Douglas E. Schoen and Carly Cooperman are pollsters and partners with the public opinion company Schoen Cooperman Research based in New York. They are co-authors of the book, “America: Unite or Die.”
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