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The last shutdown fight turned the activist base against Chuck Schumer and made him a litmus test in Senate primaries. Inside the Senate, members of his caucus trust him to handle this one differently.
That’s a huge boost to Schumer after he was ridiculed by House Democrats and Democratic activists for allowing the GOP’s government spending bill to pass six months ago. But it’s early in the process, and even close allies doubt that Schumer will get the bipartisan budget bill he wants in the end.
That could set up yet another take-it-or-leave-it choice between swallowing a Republican-written spending bill or voting it down — and prompting a government shutdown. Sen. Cory Booker, D-N.J., told Semafor if Schumer doesn’t get that bipartisan negotiation “then he’s willing to stand in the fight.”
“I’m telling anybody that will listen to me that this is a time to stand and fight,” said Booker, the No. 4 Democratic leader. “I have faith in [Sen.] Patty Murray [D-Wash.] and Sen. Schumer and their leadership; they’re going to do everything they can to try to get a bipartisan deal. But right now I’ve seen very little signs that Donald Trump is interested.”
Now in his ninth year as Democratic leader, Schumer recognizes the pressure he’s under, which includes not just the shutdown fight but also the battle for Senate control and his own position as party leader — which includes the next leadership election in 2026. His party is facing more than a half-dozen competitive Senate primaries, and some candidates are declaring they won’t support him.
Just this week, Schumer met with New York Democratic Mayoral nominee Zohran Mamdani, whom he has not yet endorsed, forced a vote on the Jeffrey Epstein files in the Senate and dug in deeper and deeper to his shutdown position. He declared Republicans’ idea for funding the government “not good enough to get our votes” and appeared alongside House Democratic Leader Hakeem Jeffries in a united front.
Still, Republicans remember what Schumer said in March, when he declared that “Republicans do not have the votes in the Senate” to override a filibuster. A day later, he announced he would help the bill to advance — a head-scratching turnabout that divided his caucus and brought scrutiny from the whole party.
“He has to be accountable to the voters. They weren’t so happy with how it went down last time. So if we’re gonna draw a line in the sand, draw the line in the sand and then stick to it,” said Rep. Jared Moskowitz, D-Fla. “Otherwise, don’t draw the line.”
Democrats say that this time Schumer is serious, particularly after Republicans passed a tax cuts law including cuts to Medicaid benefits. Now, Schumer and Jeffries are asking Republicans to address health care as part of any spending negotiations, a longshot hope in the short-term but a line in the sand nonetheless.
Asked if she’s worried that Schumer will change his position when the deadline approaches, Sen. Elizabeth Warren, D-Mass., replied: “Nope.”
“There’s now a different vibe on the Democratic side, people are more focused on the urgency of the fight,” Warren told Semafor. “Democrats are sticking together.”
If Schumer holds that position, it means the government may very well shut down, if Republicans call the same play and try to move a funding bill without Democratic input. It’s part of what his colleagues see as a more pugnacious stance than what they saw from Schumer in March.
“A lot has changed since then. Obviously the president is no longer riding high like he was … that, I think, gives Schumer more ability to push back,” said Sen. John Hickenlooper, D-Colo. “He deserves our support in making those negotiations. I think the caucus is not going to turn on him.”
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After Schumer provided the votes to advance the GOP’s government funding bill in March, the Democratic leader started dialing up his caucus members. He memorizes each member’s phone number, and his rapid-fire phone calls to his colleagues are a hallmark of his leadership style.
“He called all of us the week after that. He said ‘OK, What do you think, what do we need to learn from this?’ And I think what he heard is a lot more consultation with everybody beginning earlier,” said Sen. Tim Kaine, D-Va. “That does not make any of these decisions easy, but it makes people feel included and ideas get vetted.”
Republicans are watching it all closely. The reason they could jam Schumer in March was simple: House Republicans surprised everyone in Washington by passing a stopgap spending bill without Democratic votes.
If they can run the same play again, Schumer would once again face the same jam. This time, though, his colleagues think it’s far less likely he goes along with a similar government funding bill, because he’s been laying the groundwork to reject it for weeks.
Sen. John Kennedy, R-La., said the end result is “all about Chuck’s politics.”
“He did the right thing for the country by cooperating. But I think he’s looking at: ‘Last time I cooperated and I got the hell kicked out of me. If I shut it down, I don’t know what the political implications will be. I may get the hell kicked out of me again, or I may get applause,’” Kennedy said. “You’ve got a certainty. And a maybe. What would you pick?”
Democrats say Republicans are in power and that by denying Schumer and Jeffries’ requests for a bipartisan negotiation, they will bear the blame.
And if they stick together, they would avoid the internal dissension now wracking the Democratic Party.
“You want your side to be united, the other side to be divided. Otherwise it looks messy,” said Sen. Martin Heinrich, D-N.M.
Still, if the House can pass a spending bill rejected by Democrats, members of the minority party would be the ones voting it down in the Senate, where it takes 60 votes to break a filibuster. Typically the party that shies away from shutdown fights, Democrats would be betting that voters won’t blame them for the shutdown next year during the midterm elections.
The last full government shutdown happened a year before the 2014 midterms, and Republicans picked up seats in both chambers despite being widely blamed for shutting the government down in a bid to repeal Obamacare.
The View From one new yorker
You hear plenty of rumors about a potential primary challenge to Schumer from Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez, D-N.Y. But Schumer’s fellow New Yorker in the Senate said he’s still strong in the state.
“They trust Sen. Schumer. He understands New York better than anybody and he’s somebody who fights everyday for New Yorkers,” said Sen. Kirsten Gillibrand, D-N.Y., who chairs the party’s campaign arm.
Burgess’s view
We’ve been hearing all spring and summer how Schumer’s leadership is in trouble, but there’s just no evidence of it in the Democratic Caucus yet. At the moment, it appears Schumer has adjusted his tactics to prepare for Republicans to run another bill through the House and jam him. Everything he is signaling now is that Democrats will reject that approach — leading to a government shutdown absent those bipartisan negotiations Schumer and Jeffries want.
I’ll just note it’s hard to get out of a shutdown, no matter how unified your party is. Republicans will be in no mood to make deals on health care with Democrats if the government is shuttered. That has to be another calculation Schumer makes: If the government shuts down, what does victory look like for Democrats when it reopens?
