Texas Republicans are set to pass their new congressional maps through the state House Wednesday, officially putting their stamp on the redistricting arms race that has unfolded as national Republicans push to retain control of the House in next year’s midterms.
The Republican-led gambit to redistrict — which is being met with similar efforts across other states and notable retaliation in California — rests on a significant gamble banking on the emerging realignment of many working-class Latino voters toward the GOP. But over a year out from the 2026 elections, there’s an emerging reality operatives say are slapping both parties in the face: President Donald Trump’s approval numbers with Latino voters are souring — and those same voters still don’t trust Democrats.
Trump came in with a net 27-percent approval among Latinos in the Pew Research Center’s August survey. The Economist/YouGov poll put him at 28 percent. Reuters/Ipsos’ latest numbers published Monday gave Trump 32 percent, which matches his lowest approval in their survey. But the resounding warning signs are in Latino-run Equis Research’s latest polling memo released this week, which went beyond just Trump’s favorability, and offer lessons for Republicans and Democrats.
With Republicans’ razor-thin majority in the House and the possibility of entirely new, Hispanic-majority districts defining the next elections, the flagging figures are worth paying attention to on both sides of the aisle, multiple Democratic and Republican strategists told Playbook. With Latinos, both parties are in the wilderness.
“This confirms what we’ve been seeing over and over again,” Chuck Rocha, a Democratic strategist, told Playbook. “Some Latinos having regrets voting for Trump — but also still not sure that the Democrats are the answer.”
One of the most striking statistics from Equis’ research shows 56 percent of Latino men now disapprove of Trump — the same coalition that swung for Trump last year. And pocketbook issues rank among the top reasons why. “The cost of living was by far Trump’s weakest area,” Maria Di Franco Quiñonez, a research director at Equis, told Playbook. “It’s really extended to the Republican Party as a whole.”
That should be especially concerning when it comes to redistricting, Republican strategist Mike Madrid told Playbook. “That is who they’re banking on with this new carved out map in Texas. That’s madness.”
But this doesn’t mean Latinos are now flocking to Democrats, Di Franco Quiñonez said. Latino voters are split down the middle on Democrats in the most competitive House districts, 47 percent favorability to 48 percent. And a majority don’t see Democrats mounting an effective opposition.
“They have not been able to stop that bleeding,” one high-level Republican operative granted anonymity to discuss strategy told Playbook. “There’s no pushback to Trump, there’s no leader in the Democratic Party, they don’t know who that is.”
Republicans also know they’re playing on what was once Democratic turf, the GOP operative said. Even with fluctuations in Trump’s approval — Equis found that 8 percent of Latino voters regretted voting for Trump and 19 percent are disappointed with his actions as president — these aren’t the same numbers as 2018, when voters snapped back toward Democrats, they argue. The operative pointed to Equis’ polling showing 70 percent of Latinos that voted for Trump are happy with their choice. “I read that and I’m like, that’s great,” they said. “We’re feeling good about where we are.”
When it comes to this swing group, there’s always been a swath of Latinos — Miami’s Cubans, for example — that have been historically conservative. It’s the portion of Latinos that are somewhere on the fence (Equis reported 16 percent undecided) that have the power to flip the House next year, Rocha told Playbook.
“We’re never gonna get all of them back, but we can get back 10 to 20 percent of them and realign this to what it used to be, because the data shows they’re not happy with Republicans,” Rocha said.
This has to be a wake-up call for both parties, Madrid told Playbook.
“We’re witnessing two parties in significant transition here, and they’re both operating off of false assumptions, and neither is completely sure or confident in what their future coalition will be, but they know that their old coalition does not work for them,” Madrid said.
