This week marks a flashpoint in an escalating and unprecedented fight over redistricting, with the country’s two most populous states taking center stage and control of the US House during the second half of President Donald Trump’s term potentially at stake.
California Democratic lawmakers could take just three days to advance new congressional maps intended to offset Republican redistricting efforts in Texas.
Legislation asking voters to approve the new maps is expected to be introduced Monday when lawmakers return to Sacramento from their summer recess, with final passage as early as Thursday, according to a person familiar with the Democratic planning. It will be heard in several committees along the way.
The Texas legislature is also scheduled to reconvene Monday, with the increasing likelihood that Republicans will get a quorum and move forward. Democrats who fled the state to hold up passage of GOP-friendly maps could return within hours.
In pushing Texas and other states to redraw their congressional lines mid-decade, Republicans have undertaken extraordinary efforts to preserve their unified hold on power in Washington, prompting Democrats to consider equally unorthodox countermeasures.
Here’s a look at what to expect Monday:
What’s the situation in Texas?
The Trump-backed effort to redraw Texas’ maps has stalled since August 3, when more than 50 Democratic lawmakers left the state to block a quorum and halt a special legislative session. But it is expected to move forward in a new session that began Friday.
Texas Democrats could return to the state Capitol as soon as Monday, paving the way for Republicans to pass the new congressional maps in the second 30-day special session. House Speaker Dustin Burrows expressed hope the chamber could reach a quorum when it reconvenes at 12 p.m. CT (1 p.m ET).
Lawmakers gather on the House floor Friday in Austin after Democratic lawmakers left the state to deny Republicans the opportunity to redraw congressional districts. – Sergio Flores/Reuters
Once a quorum is met, the legislative process to approve the congressional maps will kick off, including consideration in the redistricting committee and debate and votes on the floor. The state Senate, which passed a redistricting bill in the first special session, will go through a similar process. The Senate’s redistricting committee held public hearings on Sunday and will hold another round Monday.
The GOP’s proposal would create five new districts friendlier to Trump and Republicans ahead of the midterm elections. It would likely force Democratic US Reps. Greg Casar and Lloyd Doggett to run against each other in a redrawn district.
GOP leaders have not laid out a timeline for final passage of the new map, but it could come as soon as this week.
CNN
What’s the situation in California?
When California lawmakers return from their summer recess on Monday, Democrats there will take the first step toward redrawing congressional boundaries to give them a greater chance at winning five additional seats — an extraordinary move intended to counteract Texas’ mid-decade redistricting.
Unlike in Texas, the legislation under consideration will also require voter approval to override a constitutionally mandated independent redistricting commission. Lawmakers will have to move quickly; the California secretary of state’s office gave the legislature a Friday deadline to make the November ballot, and bills must be in print for 72 hours before they can be voted on.
Democrats are expected to formally introduce the legislation Monday, with final passage pegged for Thursday. Because lawmakers are proposing to change the state constitution, two-thirds of each chamber must vote in favor of it to pass. Democrats hold three-quarters of the seats in both chambers.
The State Assembly returns at 1 p.m. PT (4 p.m. ET). The State Senate reconvenes an hour later.
Why are Texas House Democrats returning now?
Texas House Democrats have said they plan to fight the redistricting bill on the floor, laying out their case against the measure ahead of expected legal challenges in the coming months.
They argue they brought national attention to the GOP-led redistricting in Texas and helped create the momentum for California’s counteroffensive and calls in New York and other Democratic-led states to redraw their maps.
But their options to stop Republicans were always limited, short of staying out of Texas for the next year-plus. Republican Gov. Greg Abbott vowed that he would keep calling special sessions until the new maps passed.
Can California Republicans stop Democrats in their state?
California Republicans, who have little power in Sacramento to slow the redistricting push, are nevertheless closely monitoring how Democrats proceed. GOP lawmakers are anticipating Democrats will put forward a package of legislative proposals that will not only advance the new maps but also outline how they intend to hold and pay for a statewide election in less than three months, a person close to the Republican caucus told CNN.
Gov. Gavin Newsom, a likely contender for the Democrats’ presidential 2028 nomination, is already planning for a statewide campaign to support a referendum. A victory could help Democrats win back the US House next year and give Newsom a boost in the next presidential primary.
California Gov. Gavin Newsom speaks at a press conference in Los Angeles on Thursday. – Mario Tama/Getty Images
But some significant opposition to the proposed referendum is already forming. Former Gov. Arnold Schwarzenegger on Friday posted a picture of himself working out while wearing a T-shirt that said “F*** the politicians/Terminate gerrymandering.” The caption read: “I’m getting ready for the gerrymandering battle.”
Charles Munger Jr., the son of the late Berkshire Hathaway vice chairman, has signaled he intends to fight the Democratic-led initiative. Munger spent more than $12 million in 2010 to entrench the independent redistricting commission in the state constitution, and he will fight any efforts to circumvent it, his spokeswoman Amy Thoma Tan said in a statement responding to California Democrats on Thursday.
“Two wrongs do not make a right, and California shouldn’t stoop to the same tactics as Texas,” Thoma Tan said. “Instead, we should push other states to adopt our independent, non-partisan commission model across the country. That’s how we can protect and defend democracy.”
Newsom’s approach has also led to a divide among good government groups that have traditionally opposed gerrymandering. While the League of Women Voters continues to urge California lawmakers to reject the redistricting push, leaders at Common Cause have said they will not proactively reject “counterbalancing” efforts done in response to other states. The group said Wednesday it would not oppose redistricting pushes that are proportional responses to other states, involve public participation and have a set expiration date, among other criteria.
Leaders at the organization said they would determine whether to oppose the California push after the full proposal has been released and judged against its rubric.
“We welcome the governor to adopt our fairness criteria,” said Omar Noureldin, the organization’s senior vice president of policy and litigation strategy. “And if the maps that are proposed in the process that’s laid out in its totality meet that fairness criteria, then we won’t oppose it.”
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