US murders are on track to fall at a historic rate in 2025, according to an analysis of preliminary data.
The Real-Time Crime Index tracks 570 law enforcement agencies and is typically in line with official rates.
The projected 20% drop in murders from 2024 to 2025, which would be the largest decline ever recorded, furthers a trend that began in 2023; at least 10 cities are set to record the fewest murders since 1970, crime analyst Jeff Asher wrote on his Substack.
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Polls indicate more Americans also feel safer, though partisanship often plays a role in that assessment.
That’s especially true this year, as President Donald Trump has deployed the National Guard to several cities with the intention of fighting crime.
