The experienced Republican operatives I speak with on a regular basis are in complete agreement about two things. The first is that the party could not have a better or more rhetorically able candidate going into the 2028 presidential election than JD Vance. The second is that Democrats are finally starting to stand up to the far-left wing of their party and will nominate a more moderate candidate for the 2028 race, who will abandon “woke” and run on the “bread and butter” issues of most interest to the American people.
I strongly concur with both.
With regard to Vance, he is a man of the people, of the working class, and of the disenfranchised. Americans identify with him because he is one of them. Vance has walked in the shoes of basically every less than privileged community out there, due to his desperately poor and dysfunctional childhood and his service in the military. And because of what he has accomplished since — it’s still shocking to me that he is only 41 years of age — he can also speak with the privileged and the entrenched elites from a position of strength.
That said, there is a bright red neon warning light flashing for the Republican Party going into 2026 and 2028, and they had better stop patting each other on the back long enough to acknowledge it. There is a sea change taking place in our nation, and the waters are getting much more turbulent for the GOP.
For a fleeting moment, some Republican operatives seemed convinced that Democrats would be foolish enough to nominate either Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez (N.Y.) or Jasmine Crockett (Texas) as their next presidential nominee. Sorry — that’s not going to happen.
One can certainly ascertain that part of the political sea change taking place is emanating from deep within Democratic power centers. The name of the game in presidential elections is still winning 270 electoral votes. As much as Democrats, the left and most of the media may revile him, President Trump not only won that electoral game in 2024, he also grabbed a plurality of the popular vote — something not accomplished by Republicans in almost two decades.
How? For one thing, after almost four years of Biden and Democratic giveaways, the American people were fearful of a seemingly underqualified Kamala Harris steering the nation further left. And secondly, Trump put his focus on those all-important “bread and butter” issues.
The Democratic Party should never be underestimated. It has an incredibly deep bench of highly talented operatives desperate to take the White House — operatives who presumably were taking notes during and after Trump’s 20204 victory.
Way before James Carville proclaimed “It’s the economy, stupid” back in 1992, basically every election has come down to the economy and what is personally affecting the quality of life of each voter. The Democrats forgot that, but they are laser focused on it now. Just look at democratic socialist Zohran Mamdani’s mayoral win in New York City. Or Eileen Higgins, who not only became the first woman ever elected mayor of Miami, but the first Democrat to be elected there in three decades.
The Democratic Playbook for 2028 will not be complicated. (1) Push far-left “woke” issues on the back burner; (2) elevate moderate and heavily credentialed candidates such as incoming Virginia Gov. Abigail Spanberger, Gov.-elect Mikie Sherrill in New Jersey and Sen. Mark Kelly of Arizona; and (3) hammer “affordability” issues while folding in the progressive populism growing more popular among the youth vote.
Many believe — myself included — that this tack to moderation and the working class by the left is a political wolf in sheep’s clothing. But it’s a strategy that could very well work.
Because of his harrowing and deeply relatable life story, JD Vance could be one of the most qualified candidates ever to seek the presidency. That said, he and his team need to dramatically increase the horsepower of their ship and batten down all hatches. A storm is brewing on the political horizon.
Douglas MacKinnon is a former White House and Pentagon official. Follow him @dougofskye.
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