By Henry Umoru & Gift ChapiOdekina
PRESIDENT Bola Tinubu yesterday presented the 2026 Appropriation Bill of the sum of ¦ 58.18 trillion to the joint session of the National Assembly.
Christened, “Budget of Consolidation, Renewed Resilience and Shared Prosperity”, Tinubu said the budget was a culmination of two and a half years of “painful but necessary” reforms aimed at steering Nigeria towards macroeconomic stability, job-rich growth, and inclusive prosperity.
The budget, is 3.87 per cent of the estimated Gross Domestic Product (GDP) with targeted revenue of N34.33trillion to fund the projected aggregate expenditure of N58.18 trillion. While presenting the budget, Tinubu assured members of the National Assembly that multiple budget implementations will end on the 31st of March 2026 when all contracts executed in the 2025 budgets must have been completed and contractors paid.
The President, in his address to the National Assembly, described the 2026 Appropriation Bill as “Budget of Consolidation, Renewed Resilience and Shared Prosperity”, stressing that the proposal seeks to lock in recent macroeconomic gains, restore investor confidence and translate recovery into jobs and improved living standards for Nigerians.
… at $64.88 per barrel
In the proposal, total revenue is projected at N34.33 trillion, while total expenditure stands at N58.18 trillion, including N15.52 trillion for debt servicing. Recurrent (non-debt) spending is put at N15.25 trillion, while capital expenditure totals N26.08 trillion. The budget deficit of N23.85 trillion represents 4.28 per cent of GDP. The assumptions underpinning the budget include a crude oil benchmark of $64.85 per barrel, production of 1.84 million barrels per day, and an exchange rate of N1,400/$. On sector allocation, the President said that Defence & Security got N5.41 trillion; Infrastructure N3.56 trillion; Education, N3.52 trillion; Health ¦ 2.48 trillion, Debt Servicing ¦ 15.52 trillion; Recurrent (NonDebt) ¦ 15.25 trillion; Capital Expenditure (Total)¦ 26.08 trillion and total Budget ¦ 58.18 trillion “These numbers are not just accounting lines. They are a statement of national priorities,” Tinubu said, stressing commitments to fiscal sustainability, debt transparency and value-for-money spending. The president also declared that all armed groups operating outside state authority would henceforth be treated as terrorists, as he vowed tougher security action, stricter budget discipline and deeper economic reforms. President Tinubu, in his address acknowledged the pains of reforms over the last two and a half years but assured citizens that “their sacrifices are not in vain.” On the stability of the nation’s economy, the President said that Nigeria’s economy was showing clear signs of stabilisation, citing 3.98 per cent GDP growth in Q3 2025, moderation in inflation for eight consecutive months to 14.45 per cent in November 2025, improved oil production, stronger non-oil revenues and rising investor confidence. Tinubu disclosed that external reserves climbed to a seven-year high of about $47 billion as of mid-November 2025, providing over 10 months of import cover. “These outcomes are not accidental. They reflect difficult but deliberate policy choices,” Tinubu said, adding that the task ahead was to ensure that “stability becomes prosperity, and prosperity becomes shared prosperity.” On security, Tinubu said that Nigeria was resetting its national security architecture with a unified counter-terrorism approach. “Henceforth, any armed group or gunwielding non-state actors operating outside state authority will be regarded as terrorists,” he declared. He said that bandits, militias, armed gangs, kidnappers, violent cult groups, forest-based armed collectives and foreign-linked mercenaries would be categorised as terrorists. He warned that financiers, ransom facilitators, arms suppliers, political protectors and even community or religious leaders who aid violence would also be designated terrorists. On budget execution, Tinubu admitted that 2025 implementation faced transition challenges, noting that as of Q3 2025, ¦ 18.6 trillion in revenue (61% of target) and ¦ 24.66 trillion in expenditure (60% of target) had been recorded. Only ¦ 3.10 trillion, about 17.7 per cent of the 2025 capital budget, had been released by Q3. He pledged stricter discipline in 2026, directing the finance and budget authorities to implement the budget “strictly in line with appropriated details and timelines.” Heads of GovernmentOwned Enterprises (GOEs) were ordered to meet revenue targets, backed by endto-end digitisation to seal leakages. “Nigeria can no longer afford inefficiencies or underperformance in strategic agencies. Every institution must play its part,” he warned. Tinubu said investments in human capital would be deepened, revealing that over 418,000 students have benefitted from the Nigerian Education Loan Fund in partnership with 229 tertiary institutions. Health spending, he added, represents six per cent of the total budget, excluding liabilities, with over $500 million in prospective U.S. grant funding for targeted health interventions. On food security, he said agriculture would be prioritised through mechanisation, irrigation, climate-resilient farming, storage and agro-value chains to curb post-harvest losses and boost smallholder incomes. A budget to deliver “The greatest budget is not the one we announce. It is the one we deliver,” Tinubu said, outlining commitments to better revenue mobilisation, smarter spending and stronger accountability. “Our economy grew by 3.98% in Q3 2025, higher than the 3.86% recorded in Q3 2024. Inflation has moderated for eight consecutive months, with headline inflation declining to 14.45% in November 2025, from 24.23% in March 2025. “With stabilising food and energy prices, tighter monetary conditions, and improving supply responses, we expect the disinflationary trend to persist—so that inflation continues to decline further over the 2026 horizon, barring major supply shocks. Oil production has improved, supported by enhanced security, technology deployment, and sector reforms. “Non oil revenues have expanded significantly through better tax administration —not excessive taxation. Investor confidence is returning, reflected in capital inflows, renewed project financing, and stronger private sector participation. “Our external reserves rose to a 7 year high of about US$47 billion as at 14 November 2025, providing more than 10 months of import cover and a stronger buffer against shocks. The reform gains are not accidental but result from difficult and deliberate policy choices. Our task now is to consolidate these gains—so that stability becomes prosperity, and prosperity becomes shared prosperity”, he stressed . President Tinubu assured Nigerians that their sacrifices would not be in vain saying that the nation has got out of the dark tunnel of uncertainty and economic volatility. Laying the bill before lawmakers, he said the 2026 Budget “belongs to all of us,” expressing confidence that cooperation between the Executive and Legislature would deliver the Renewed Hope Agenda.
“It is with great pleasure that I lay before this distinguished Joint Session of the National Assembly the 2026 Appropriation Bill of the Federal Republic of Nigeria,” Tinubu concluded. “May God bless the Federal Republic of Nigeria. Earlier in his welcome address, the President of the Senate, Senator Godswill Akpabio, commended President Tinubu for all the courageous policies and decisions his government has taken since 2023. He said that the National Assembly was fully behind him but begged him to review the policy of withdrawal of police orderlies from VIPs by restoring those attached to federal lawmakers at both chamber. In his closing remarks, the Speaker of the House of Representatives on Friday commended President Bola Ahmed Tinubu for deepening fiscal discipline and restoring macroeconomic stability. The Speaker said Tinubu’s decision to personally present the 2026 budget underscored his “abiding faith in democratic institutions” and commitment to partnership between the executive and legislature in driving sustainable national renewal. He described 2025 as a year of “regained stability, renewed confidence and steady progress,” noting that although the fiscal year was shaped by global economic headwinds and volatile crude oil prices, the challenges ultimately strengthened Nigeria’s reform agenda. How 2026 Budget compares with 2025 budget Emma Ujah, Abuja Bureau Chief & Progress Godfrey The 2026 Appropriations Bill, presented by President Bola Tinubu reflects a significant expansion in fiscal ambition compared with 2025, a higher deficit financing and more conservative macroeconomic assumptions. The projected expenditure for 2026 is pegged at ¦ 58.18 trillion, a sharp increase from ¦ 49.7 trillion in 2025, underscoring the administration’s push to consolidate reforms and sustain economic recovery. However, expected revenue is projected at ¦ 34.33 trillion, slightly lower than the ¦ 34.82 trillion estimated in 2025, widening the fiscal gap. As a result, the budget deficit is projected to rise to ¦ 23.85 trillion, representing 4.28 percent of GDP, compared with ¦ 13.08 trillion in 2025. This reflects heavier reliance on borrowing to fund spending commitments amid revenue pressures. On the spending side, capital expenditure rose to ¦ 26.08 trillion in the 2026 Appropriations Bill, signalling sustained infrastructure and productive-sector investment. In contrast, debt servicing climbed to ¦ 15.52 trillion, highlighting the growing burden of public debt, while recurrent nondebt expenditure stood at ¦ 15.25 trillion, broadly in line with fiscal restraint efforts. Macroeconomic assumptions for 2026 are notably more cautious. The oil price benchmark was lowered to $64.85 per barrel from $75 in 2025, while oil production was reduced to 1.8 million barrels per day, down from 2.06 mbpd. The exchange rate assumption improved marginally to ¦ 1,400/$1 from ¦ 1,500/$1, reflecting optimism around FX market stability. Meanwhile, GDP growth of 3.98 percent in Q3 2025 was cited as evidence of gradual recovery, supported by external reserves of $47 billion, a seven-year high. Sectoral allocations reveal mixed movements. Defence and security rose to ¦ 5.41 trillion from ¦ 4.91 trillion in 2025, reinforcing internal security priorities. Infrastructure spending, however, declined to ¦ 3.56 trillion from ¦ 4.06 trillion, while education and health and social services allocations were retained at ¦ 3.52 trillion and ¦ 2.48 trillion, respectively, indicating continuity rather than expansion in human capital spending. Beyond headline figures, the President disclosed targeted social and development interventions, including healthcare funding equivalent to 6 percent of the total budget, support for over 780,000 students under the education loan scheme, plans to cultivate one million hectares of land for food security, and $500 million in U.S.-backed health interventions, reinforcing the administration’s National Renewal agenda despite tighter fiscal conditions. Nigeria’s economy still poses significant risks to long-term investor confidence — Economist By John Alechenu An Abuja based Economist and Public Affairs commentator, Chief Peter Ameh, has warned that Nigeria’s current fiscal trajectory still poses significant risks to long-term investor confidence. Ameh who was responding to a question by Vanguard about the 2026 budget proposal presented by President Bola Tinubu, to the National Assembly, on Friday, said the gap between figures reeled out and the reality on ground, called for concern. He said, “I sincerely call for serious caution. The truth is, Nigeria’s current fiscal trajectory—marked by record revenues, ballooning expenditures, and escalating debt service—poses severe risks to long-term investor confidence and sustainable economic growth, even as short-term macro indicators show stabilisation. “This macro triumph to my mind masks a dangerous disconnect. Explosive budgets— reaching ¦ 54.99 trillion for 2025 with proposals climbing higher—coupled with debt service consuming vast revenue shares, crowd out productive investments in infrastructure, security, and human capital. “External debt servicing alone was in the billions in the first half of 2025, while domestic obligations continue to strain fiscal space. The implications for investor confidence are stark: While portfolio inflows dominate (over 90% of capital importation in early 2025, chasing high yields), genuine Foreign Direct Investment has plummeted—crashing 70% quarter-on-quarter in Q1—signaling deep caution over policy consistency, transparency gaps, and perceived “flip-flopping” on reforms. Hot money fuels stock market gains and reserve buffers but flees at the first sign of instability, leaving no lasting jobs or factories. “For the larger economy, the fallout is catastrophic. Despite growth, poverty has soared to an estimated 139 million Nigerians in 2025—over 60% of the population—with food inflation and cost-of-living pressures eroding gains. Insecurity hampers agriculture, unemployment lingers, and inequality widens, risking social inequality that could deter even speculative investors.” Ameh further identified the lack of transparency in budget execution, accountability in fund allocation, while occasional policy adjustments erode trust further. Investors he stressed, demand predictability; without it, Nigeria risks volatile capital flows and stalled diversification. Suggesting a way forward, the analyst said, “There is a clear way forward: Prioritise fiscal consolidation by capping recurrent bloat and allocating 30-40 percent of budgets to capital projects in security, power, and agriculture. “Enhance transparency through independent audits and digital tracking. Expand targeted social safety nets to cushion the vulnerable, building public buy-in for reforms. Resolve regulatory uncertainties to attract quality FDI in non-oil sectors.” According to him, without urgent shifts to inclusive, transparent growth, investor confidence will remain fragile, and the economy’s potential untapped. The people cannot wait; neither can sustainable prosperity. He also expressed worry about the disappointing numbers coming out of the 2025 budget performance. Ameh said, “With federal revenue severely under-performing in 2025, Finance Minister Wale Edun disclosed that, while the government had projected ¦ 40.8 trillion in revenue to support the year’s approximately ¦ 54.9 trillion “Budget of Restoration,” current trends suggest actual inflows will likely total only around ¦ 10.7 trillion—a shortfall of about ¦ 30 trillion. “This gap, attributed mainly to weak oil and gas earnings and underperformance in other revenue streams, has raised concerns over fiscal sustainability and forced rollovers of capital projects into 2026.”
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