The big question on the tips of many political watchers’ tongues right now is whether the Trump administration’s botched handling of the Epstein files will do what virtually nothing has yet: turn President Donald Trump’s devoted base against him.
Through a multitude of controversies over the years – including a violent Trump-inspired uprising at the US Capitol, multiple indictments and a conviction on 34 felony counts – that base has stood resolutely and almost unshakably in his corner.
The more apt question, though, is whether the Epstein saga exacerbates an already looming malaise on the right.
Because the seeds of this problem had already been planted and fertilized.
While Trump’s overall approval rating among Republicans remains high, significant numbers of them disapprove of his handling of a range of issues. Many of his early actions have been unpopular with a significant cross-section of Republicans. And even with the big policies that appear to have widespread GOP backing, that support appears shallow.
Trump has also taken a series of actions in recent weeks that appear to be out of sync with where much of MAGA has stood – including striking Iran, a big-spending agenda bill and funneling more weapons to Ukraine.
People holds signs calling for the release of files regarding Jeffrey Epstein participate in a protest as part of the ‘Good Trouble Lives On’ national day of action against the Trump administration in Houston, Texas, on Thursday. – Ronaldo Schemidt/AFP/Getty Images
The timing of the Epstein brouhaha, in other words, is not great for the president.
A new CNN poll released this week is one of the first to get directly at how unenthused Trump’s supporters appear to be right now.
The poll found a record-low 21% of Americans strongly approved of Trump – the lowest number in either term so far. What’s more, 25% of Republican-leaning voters said Trump hasn’t paid enough attention to the country’s most important problems.
But perhaps most striking was the response to its question about the 2026 midterm elections.
The poll found that while 72% of Democratic-leaning voters said they were “extremely” motivated to vote next year, just 50% of Republican-leaning voters said the same.
As CNN’s Jennifer Agiesta noted, that 22-point gap is much bigger than we’ve seen in either the 2022 or 2024 elections.
It’s also one of the biggest gaps on record, if you include other pollsters.
Polling late in the 2018 election, for example, showed Democrats with a 10-point advantage in those who were “extremely” motivated. Gallup data from the five midterms before that showed the biggest gaps were 19 points in 2014 and 20 points in 2010 – both in the GOP’s favor. Republicans dominated both of those elections.
Comparing the new CNN data to these numbers isn’t perfectly apt. These polls all came much later in the election cycle. It’s relatively rare to ask this question in an off year, when things might fluctuate more. But the data certainly points to very different levels of enthusiasm right now. And it doesn’t suggest Republicans are universally loving what they’re seeing early in Trump’s presidency.
The CNN poll also tested Trump’s approval on 10 individual issues. On all of them, at least 14% of Republican-leaning voters disapproved of him. On average, 18% disapproved.
Quinnipiac University data this week showed an average of 14% of Republicans only (i.e. not including Republican-leaning independents) disapproved of Trump on issues ranging from immigration to the economy to foreign policy.
Those aren’t overwhelming portions of Trump’s base, but they are significant numbers.
And they don’t come out of nowhere. If you look at big-ticket Trump policies, you also see the potential for a building malaise. Much of what Trump is doing isn’t terribly popular with his base.
The CNN poll this week found 81% of Republicans said they supported his recently passed agenda bill, which included substantial cuts to Medicaid. But only 30% supported it strongly – compared to 73% of Democrats who opposed it strongly.
A CNN poll last month showed 82% of Republicans supported Trump’s Iran strikes, but just 44% did so strongly – perhaps reflecting the discomfort many expressed before the strikes.
The president’s signature economic policy – his tariffs – have long lingered as a potential problem even with his base. While polling has shown many Republicans are willing to defer to Trump, they don’t love the idea or think it will be good for them personally. An April CNN poll showed about as many Republicans said the tariffs would hurt their personal finances (28%) as said they would help (33%).
Even some of his immigration and deportation policies are losing the support of as much as 1 in 5 Republicans or more.
People carrying binders bearing the seal of the US Justice Department reading “The Epstein Files: Phase 1” walk out of the West Wing of the White House on February 27. – Abaca Press/Sipa USA/AP/File
The Epstein mess might be a bigger deal than all of these combined for a certain segment of MAGA voters – the conspiratorial ones who have believed for nearly a decade that Trump would soon rip the lid off a massive sex-trafficking scandal involving powerful people – first with QAnon and then with Epstein.
It also speaks to a more mainstream audience that just doesn’t believe all of the Epstein stuff adds up and has now been given reason to believe the Trump administration isn’t going to do anything about it or even might be in on the cover-up.
But if it does push people away from Trump, we shouldn’t just look at it in isolation. He’s been risking alienating his base for a while. This could just be the straw that broke the camel’s back for some.
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