–How coalition can stop Tinubu, APC
–We need new constitution, not piece meal amendments l It’s time for independent candidacy
–Why I wrote a new book on Nigeria lWhy Nigeria’s stagnating, fracturing
By Clifford Ndujihe, Politics Editor
DR Olu Fasan, a journalist, economist, lawyer and academic, who turns 65, today, was born on July 24, 1960, the year that Nigeria gained independence from Britain. In his 60th birthday interview in 2020, he talked about his bond with independent Nigeria as agemate. Five years on, he has written a book about the future of Nigeria. In this interview to mark his 65th birthday, Fasan spoke on the state of the nation and how to save the country. He also answered questions on his new book, why he wrote it, the main themes, the choice of the title, insights into the writing process and the planned launch/presentation in Nigeria.
You are 65 today. How do you feel at 65?
I feel great. And I give all the glory to the Almighty God. As a Christian, I know all too well that I am alive today, marking my 65th birthday, because it has pleased God to keep me alive. So, I am grateful to Him.
Five years ago, in your 60th birthday interview with Vanguard, you talked about your bond with independent Nigeria as agemate.
Five years on, has there been any change?
Well, my bond with Nigeria remains strong and enduring. Over the past five years, I have continued to make humble contributions to the development of this country through weekly columns in this newspaper and in BusinessDay.
Second, since my 60th birthday five years ago, I have been studying and learning. Although, I have two master’s degrees and a PhD, and I qualified as a barrister, I am a passionate life-long learner. Last year, I completed a two-year Creative Writing programme at Oxford University. I enrolled on the course in 2022 because I would like to devote the rest of my active life to writing books, and novels. I am inspired by people in their 80s and 90s who are still writing novels. Our own Professor Wole Soyinka wrote his latest novel, ‘Chronicles from the Land of the Happiest People on Earth,’ at 87 or so. The Oxford creative writing qualification gives me a licence to join the world of creative writers.
I learned that you have a new book on Nigeria. What is it all about and what pushed you into writing it?*
Yes, I have a new book on Nigeria. Its title is: “In the National Interest: The Road to Nigeria’s Political, Economic and Social Transformation.” It is a book about the political economy of Nigeria. The book is an extensive research and analysis of the political, economic and social challenges facing Nigeria, with thoughtful solutions.
Put simply, the book confronts Nigeria with its demons and offers workable ideas on how to slay them. The powerful endorsements that the book received from famous people internationally is a testament to the depth and quality of its research, analysis and proposals.
What pushed me into writing the book? Well, it’s my deep love for Nigeria and my equally deep concern for its future. By the latter, I am not talking about Nigeria disintegrating or breaking up. Rather, I am talking about Nigeria stagnating and failing to make progress. Currently, Nigeria is the world’s sixth most populous country. According to the United Nations, Nigeria would be the world’s third most populous country, overtaking the United States, by 2050, and the second most populous, overtaking China, by 2100.
Now, can Nigeria, as the world’s third or second most populous country, be politically stable, economically prosperous and socially progressive and cohesive with its current political and governance structures, economic model and social system? The answer is no. Even with its current size and structure, Nigeria is fracturing at its seams. It is economically backward, politically unstable and socially regressive.
The book is about how to reverse these failures and turn Nigeria into the great country that it has the potential to become, a powerful force for good nationally, regionally and globally.
What are the main themes of the book?
One of the unique features of the book is that it takes a comprehensive, holistic and systems-based approach to addressing Nigeria’s challenges. The premise is that there is a symbiotic relationship between the political, economic, and social factors shaping the Nigerian society and that political governance, economic performance, and social progress are mutually reinforcing and interdependent. Without the right political and institutional structures, a country cannot engender economic progress and without economic prosperity, it cannot build a progressive and cohesive society where poverty, inequality and insecurity are drastically reduced.
So, the book’s themes are political governance, economic governance, state capacity and institutional development and social challenges, such as unemployment, poverty, inequality, and insecurity.
It is worth stressing that the book is not based on mere opinions. Rather, it is based on extensive research and empirical evidence. As the Editorial Board of a UK publishing company put it, “The levels of research and discussions, which show a deep knowledge and understanding of the subject, make for a professional perspective that captures the attentions of readers.” I am a strong believer in the saying that “journalism is the first rough draft of history.” So, in that spirit, news reports and stories about Nigeria form a core part of the book’s evidence base. What’s more, any journalist whose work is referenced in the book is specifically mentioned in the over 60 pages of endnotes because I want them to be part of the history that the book represents.
What informed the choice of the title?
As I said, the book’s title is “In the National Interest.” The choice is informed by my conviction that the main reason Nigeria has not made progress is that hardly anyone is acting in the national interest. There are entrenched vested interests in Nigeria that are stalling the country’s progress because they are benefiting from the present rot. Thus, my overarching appeal in the book is to the national interest. Transforming Nigeria is not rocket science, but it requires everyone to act in the national interest. In particular, it requires those entrusted with political power or public office to subordinate their self-interest to the public good. Unfortunately, private interest triumphs over the public good in Nigeria. Yet, any country where the ethos of selfless public service is lacking cannot make progress. So, the book is an appeal to the national interest. The title and the cover are intended to convey the message that, instead of being “the troubled giant of Africa”, as someone put it, Nigeria can become a political giant and an economic powerhouse in the world – but only if, as set out in the book, we all act in the national interest, only if the political class puts the national interest above selfish interests.
Could you throw insights into the writing process?
The book is the culmination of my years of researching, analysing and writing about Nigeria, as well as my years of experience as an academic and policy analyst. Weaving together my academic, journalistic, and policy experiences with extensive research and meticulously sourced evidence, I have put together a book that, I believe, addresses the subject matter comprehensively and holistically.
The book is published in the US by Penguin. They will market and distribute it internationally, including through their partner-bookshops in Nigeria.
Do you plan to have a book launch/presentation in Nigeria?
Yes. Despite what my publisher is doing to promote the book internationally; nothing will gladden my heart more than the book’s visibility and success in Nigeria. To that end, by the grace of God, the book will be launched in Nigeria in November. The public presentation of a book on the future of Nigeria, titled “In the National Interest”, should bring together patriotic Nigerians and concentrate minds, especially as the book launch will take place shortly after Nigeria’s 65th independence anniversary in October. So, I hope and pray that the book launch will be a patriotic national gathering on Nigeria’s future.
More information on the event will be provided nearer the time.
At this point, I want to express my profound gratitude to Prince Sam Amuka, the legendary Uncle Sam, publisher of Vanguard, who has been four-square behind the book at different stages and is solidly backing its launch. I can’t count the number of times that Uncle Sam and I spoke about the book’s progress and its planned launch. I am eternally grateful to him. Mr Eze Anaba, the Editor of Vanguard, is also just a phone call away, utterly supportive. I thank him. Then, what can I say about BusinessDay, where I started as a columnist over ten years ago? Mr Frank Aigbogun, the publisher and editor-in-chief, is, in his words, “rooting for” the book’s presentation. I am indebted to him. Many thanks in advance to other benefactors who will contribute to the book launch.
What is your take on the state of the nation?
One of the prominent people who endorsed my book said: “Dr Fasan is not a cheerleader for the Nigeria that is, but the Nigeria that could be.” He is right. The truth is that the Nigeria “that is” has terribly failed itself and its people. Recently, the World Bank ranked Nigeria among Lower-Middle Income Economies (LMIEs), behind Libya and Gabon. Nigeria has no business being a lower-middle income economy; it should be an upper-middle income economy. Here’s a country that, at independence, was at par with East Asian countries like Malaysia, Singapore and Indonesia, all of which are economic giants today. So, what’s Nigeria doing as a lower-middle income economy?
A few weeks ago, I had a conversation with a former Nigerian minister in London, and he kept saying that “Nigeria must crawl before it walks.” I was aghast. I said that while Nigeria is still crawling, most of the rest of the world are walking, while some are running. If you have a student who is “crawling” in a class where others are “walking” or “running”, what will happen to the student? He would be left behind in the race of life.
Unfortunately, Nigerian leaders are complacent; they pat themselves on the back for building roads and passing legislation, which most other countries take for granted.
But look at it from the perspective of the citizens. The American Declaration of Independence states that: “We hold these truths to be self-evident, that all men are created equal, that they are endowed by their Creator with certain unalienable Rights, that among these are Life, Liberty and the pursuit of Happiness. The universality of that declaration, which derives from the Magna Carta, is undeniable, and it can be found in Chapter IV of the Nigerian Constitution, which guarantees Fundamental Rights.
Of course, no country has fully actualised those ideals. But in Nigeria, the rights to life, liberty and the pursuit of happiness are luxuries to ordinary citizens. This is because Nigeria is what Daron Acemoglu and James Robinson describe as an “extractive state” in their book Why Nations Fail. An extractive state is one where power and resources are concentrated in the hands of a small elite, who then exploit the majority of the population for their own benefit. Sadly, that is the state of Nigeria today. But Nigeria cannot make progress unless it exists for the benefits of all its people, not just a few.
What is your assessment of President Bola Tinubu’s performance in two years on insecurity, economy, infrastructure, power and poverty alleviation?
To be honest with you, if President Tinubu had not withdrawn the fuel subsidy and if he had not floated the naira, I would be calling for those policies today as I did for eight years under President Buhari, who penultimate week (may his soul rest in peace). I would call for those policies because of the waste and corruption associated with the fuel subsidy and the currency peg. So, I don’t want to be hypocritical by making blanket criticisms of the subsidy removal and the scrapping of the currency peg. However, let’s remember that the fuel subsidy would not have been a problem in 2023 if Tinubu and his then party, ACN, had not, for political advantage, mobilised the country against its removal in 2012 when then President Jonathan tried to remove it. Similarly, the currency peg would not have been an issue in 2023 if President Buhari had not pegged the naira to the dollar in 2015. So, as I argued recently, Tinubu has spent the past two years fixing the problems that either he or his party created in the first place. Elsewhere, he won’t get credit for that.
Secondly, it is the duty of every government to ensure that policies are well crafted to minimise their adverse consequences. But while the removal of the fuel subsidy and the floating of the naira have had some positive outcomes, they have produced huge adverse consequences that have not been mitigated. For instance, the subsidy removal has raised trillions of naira for the government, but it has also massively increased inflation, pushing ordinary Nigerians deeper into poverty. Yet, the government has not used the savings from the subsidy removal to mitigate its inflationary impacts and alleviate poverty in the country. The scrapping of the currency peg triggered massive devaluations of the naira and also led to imported inflation, which, in turn, forced the Central Bank to hike up interest rates. But while both the devaluation of the naira and the high interest rates have made Nigerian assets cheaper and, therefore, attractive to foreign portfolio investors, they have also made life difficult for local businesses, particularly manufacturers, which face higher borrowing and input costs. Yet, there is no way any country can tackle unemployment and poverty if the private sector is not robust and competitive enough to drive growth and create jobs.
Truth is, any government can remove a fuel subsidy, and government can float a currency, the real test of good policy-makibg is how you manage the fallouts, the consequences.
Unfortunately, the Tinubu government has not managed the consequences of its economic reforms to minimise the pains on ordinary citizens and the harm they have caused to the wider economy, particularly the manufacturing sector.
Meanwhile, the Tinubu administration is borrowing heavily, and unprecedentedly, to build infrastructure. But there is no civilised country where a government is hailed for building roads and bridges when the citizens are trapped in extreme poverty, hunger and insecurity. For instance, over the past 10 years, a brand new train station, the Elizabeth Line, was built in the UK. Yet, the government under which the station was built was later voted out of power because the citizens’ living standards had not improved. In the US, President Biden signed the $1.2 trillion Infrastructure Bill into law in 2021, with most of it focused on transport and road projects. Yet, in 2024, his party, the Democrats, lost power because of high inflation and cost of living. So, when the Tinubu administration claims credit for commissioning roads, the question is what about the protection of lives and property, what about living standards, what about human flourishing? Those are the issues that really matter in a democracy. Unfortunately, so far, the Tinubu administration is known for debt-funded infrastructure and painful economic reforms, while poverty, inequality and insecurity remain acutely rife in the country.
My book extensively addresses all these issues and the way forward.
What is your take on the raging defections of some opposition governors, lawmakers and political bigwigs to the ruling All Progressives Congress, APC?
Well, defections of prominent opposition politicians, including governors, to the APC is inevitable in a country where political parties are mere interchangeable vehicles for gaining power. Most Nigerian politicians will defect to a party they believe gives them a better chance of winning an election or retaining power. Those opposition governors defecting to the APC would probably have calculated that they are safer in terms of retaining their seats at the next election if they belong to the party controlling the centre and, therefore, enjoy the federal might. At the same time, given that President Tinubu himself has actively encouraged the defections, we cannot rule out behind-the-scenes inducements, including some arm-twisting by Nyesom Wike, the FCT Minister, to lure some PDP governors, particularly from the South, into the APC to bolster his re-election bid in 2027.
Indeed, the defections appear to be part of a strategic political realignment ahead of 2027. Everyone knows that Nyesom Wike, the FCT minister, remains a powerful force in PDP while working for Tinubu’s re-election.
So, it’s not inconceivable that Southern PDP governors, arguably arm-twisted by Wike, are defecting to the APC to boost President Tinubu’s chances of re-election, especially amid concerns that he might haemorrhage support in the North in 2027.
The death of former President Buhari may make that support a lot shakier as Buhari’s loyalists and supporters are now up for grabs
But whatever the reasons for the defections, they do not surprise me because the Nigerian political class is one big omnibus party inside which politicians move seamlessly around in search of better opportunities.
Until Nigeria has political parties that are based on alternative ideologies, values, policies and issues, and where party loyalties and affiliations, are strong, its democratic process will remain weak and underdeveloped.
Could you share your thoughts on the emerging coalition of Atiku, Obi, Amaechi, El-Rufai, David Mark among others to stop Tinubu in 2027 via ADC?
Politics in Nigeria is all about elite competition for power and political parties, as I argued earlier, are mere special purpose vehicles for capturing the state, with absolutely nothing distinguishing them in terms of ideologies, policies or issues. All of those coming together under the ADC were either formerly in the PDP or in the APC, and some have been in both. Do they disagree with the APC because of what the party stands for? No.Many of them will happily return to or join the APC tomorrow, if the circumstances permit. So, the bottom line is that their only disagreement is with President Tinubu, who, of course, currently embodies the APC. They disagree with Tinubu’s leadership style, governance style and buccaneering approach to politics. And truth be told, Tinubu has governed with utter arrogance. Here’s is someone who won just 37 per cent of the popular vote and yet rules magisterially as if he won a landslide, arrogating unprecedented powers to himself and deploying them whimsically. Within just two years in office, Tinubu has allowed more than seven national monuments to be named after him. Every patriotic Nigerian should be appalled by that personalisation of the state. So, it’s not hard to see why opposition politicians are ganging up against him.
In theory, the coalition is formidable because, going by the votes that Atiku Abubakar and Peter Obi secured in the 2023 presidential election, the coalition controls 55 per cent of the popular vote against Tinubu’s 37 per cent. But that’s the theory. In practice, they are unlikely to remain united because of conflicting presidential ambitions. For instance, there is no guarantee that Atiku’s supporters will support Obi and vice versa. Second, in my view, the coalition’s emergence is not sure-footed. If they are truly serious about uniting to defeat Tinubu in 2027, why did they not put their money where their mouth is by forming a new party instead of hijacking an existing hitherto moribund party? The optic is not good. It is as if the coalition has just “rented” the ADC for 2027. Nigerians knew the APC was a serious opposition party when several parties dissolved themselves and collapsed their structures into the new party. Some said INEC would not register a party formed by the coalition, but that’s inconceivable. If that were to happen, INEC would have compromised 2027 irredeemably. So, the coalition needs to make the ADC look like a credible political party, not a rented vehicle for 2027. But the third, perhaps most serious, challenge the coalition will face is that it might not be easy to defeat a ruthless incumbent unless they come up with a stronger candidate, a formidable winning strategy and a credible alternative agenda for government. The coalition cannot just tell Nigerians that Tinubu and the APC are bad, they must say how they would be different if they replaced him.
No fewer than 122 political associations have applied to INEC for registration as political parties. Will more parties lead to good governance? Is it the solution to our democracy challenges?
In principle, a multiple-party system is good for democracy because it makes politics contestable, offers alternative agenda and gives the people a real choice. But in Nigeria, the multiplicity of parties has not led to alternative ideologies or policies. Most of the parties are dormant and exist in name only, while many others are mere vehicles to be “rented” by disgruntled politicians from other parties. While INEC should register any political association that meets the minimum criteria, what would strengthen Nigerian democracy is allowing independent (non-party) candidates in elections. That would make politics truly competitive in Nigeria and reduce the dominance and arrogance of the established political parties that are controlled by godfathers, lack internal party democracy and, therefore, are anathema to true democracy. The existence of independent candidates is a sign of a mature democracy. It would contribute to the development of participatory democracy in Nigeria and might boost voter turnout.
How far do you think the National Assembly will go with its current constitution amendment exercise? Is amendment the solution or should we go for a new constitution to restructure the country?
It is a waste of time. Nigeria needs a brand new Constitution, not piece-meal constitutional amendments. A prominent journalist, Abraham Ogbodo, former Editor of The Guardian, wrote a column in the Nigerian Tribune in which he estimated the cost of amending the current Constitution since 1999 at N5bn per an amendment committee, arguing that, with nine National Assemblies and nine amendment committees, to date, Nigeria has spent N45bn on amending the Constitution since 1999. But to what end? Well, Ogbodo submitted that all the amendments “are cosmetic applications that do not speak to the fundamental fault lines and are, therefore, incapable of providing answers to national questions.” I agree with him. Besides, a chapter in my book is titled “The Imperative for a New Political and Constitutional Settlement.” So, I don’t believe incremental, piece-meal constitutional amendments will bring about the much-needed restructuring of Nigeria. The country needs a new constitution.
What is the way forward for Nigeria?
That’s the whole essence of my book. It sets out the way forward for Nigeria, how to unlock the country’s great potential and transform it into a truly prosperous, stable and united country. Nigerians should read it.
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