SACRAMENTO, California — California’s long-awaited congressional redistricting plan finally dropped on Friday, capping weeks of speculation about how the party’s ruling Democrats would counter the extraordinary mid-decade gerrymander now pending in the Lone Star State.
Democrats are eyeing a map that could imperil five sitting Republican members, matching the five Democratic-held seats the Texas GOP is seeking to eliminate. If everything goes the Democrats’ way in November 2026 — and that’s a big if — they could hold 48 of the state’s 52 congressional seats.
But first the proposed maps will have to run a whirlwind gauntlet through the state Capitol next week, where lawmakers are expected to approve the maps and related legislation by Thursday.
Then it’s onto the voters, who on Nov. 4 will have the ultimate say in whether the state should use the Legislature’s maps for the next three election cycles before returning line-drawing power to the state’s independent redistricting commission after 2030. Democrats have made the entire gambit contingent on whether Texas or other red states act first, in hopes that the threat could force the GOP to blink.That’s looking increasingly unlikely, however, as both parties gird for a pricey, nationalized fight.
Here’s what we’ve learned about the congressional map that will be at the heart of a nine-figure campaign battle.
1. Tough news for these five Republicans
The ultimate goal for California Democrats was to find five pick-up seats to offset the threat of Republicans scooping up five additional districts in Texas. The final maps make official which California Republicans have been targeted.
GOP Rep. Doug LaMalfa’s rural Northern district — the home base of the breakaway “state of Jefferson” movement that wants to secede from California — now has a 17-point GOP registration advantage, according to California Targetbook, a nonpartisan election reference. But under the proposed plan, it would swing to a 10-point Democratic edge, according to the maps submitted by the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee to the state Legislature.
The 450-mile-long 3rd congressional district now represented by Republican Rep. Kevin Kiley would be significantly compacted, with an arm stretching into the Democrat-rich Sacramento suburbs. The new district would have an eight-point Democratic advantage, unlike the current six-point edge for Republicans. Democrats also would bump up their registration advantage by six points in the already blue-tinged Central Valley seat held by Rep. David Valadao, testing the limits of his ability to overcome a partisan disadvantage.
GOP Rep. Ken Calvert’s current 41st district, which stretches from the western Inland Empire to the blue oasis of Palm Springs, would dramatically change to a seat with a 20-point Democratic advantage.
The Palm Springs portion of Calvert’s district, meanwhile, would be tacked onto the seat now held by Republican Rep. Darrell Issa, who would suddenly find himself in a district with a four-point Democratic advantage that spans Riverside and San Diego counties. Issa, who did not seek reelection before the 2018 wave and moved to nab a safer GOP seat in 2020, would find himself once again a target. (More on those races below.)
2. Vulnerable Democrats get some relief
Knocking off Republicans is just one side of the coin. Democrats also want to ease the pressure on their frontline members. Democrats in some of last year’s toughest campaigns — including Adam Gray in the Central Valley, Derek Tran and Dave Min in Orange County and George Whitesides in Los Angeles County — all would see their districts turn a deeper shade of blue.
Gov. Gavin Newsom, eager to maximize the intimidation factor for Texas, told Crooked Media that shoring up those vulnerable Democrats is in itself a net gain for his party. If Texas proceeds with its plan, he said, “We’ll neutralize them and we’ll also punch above our weight in those four additional seats.”
By that logic, the bluer tinge of the districts represented by Rep. Josh Harder and Mike Levin — two Democrats who are perpetually on the bubble of a serious challenge, but so far have not been marquee races — also add to the Democrats’ spoils.
Are the seats really “additional” if Democrats already have them? No, but taking them off the board for Republicans would undeniably be a net positive for the party, allowing them to focus their resources in other tight races in California and throughout the country.
3. Don’t count your chickens
A lot has to go right for this to work, if “work” is defined as “Democrats flip enough seats in California to offset five Texas pickups.”
Even if voters approve the new maps, coloring a district bluer on paper guarantees nothing. Just ask the string of Democrats who have tried, unsuccessfully, to oust Valadao from a seat where registered Democrats have for years outnumbered Republicans. The new map adds left-leaning voters to Valadao’s district, but he’s defied the voter-registration odds before.
Meanwhile, some efforts to bolster Democratic incumbents are not guaranteed to work. Gray’s Central Valley seat and the Orange County district held by Tran do get marginally more Democratic, but will still likely require Democrats to spend heavily in those races next year to ensure a win.
“I understand that Gov. Newsom is positioning himself as the top opponent to President Trump and the White House. So that’s why he has ratcheted up his rhetoric,” said Nathan Gonzales, editor and publisher of Inside Elections, a nonpartisan campaign almanac. “But he’s offering some premature political analysis.”
4. Vibing with the Voting Rights Act
Democrats could have sought even more gains but compliance with the federal Voting Rights Act stopped them from fully icing out Republicans on the congressional maps.
They say it’s a stark contrast to the ongoing, GOP-led redistricting efforts in red states like Texas — where there’s little attempt to comply with prior Voting Rights Act requirements that prioritize fair representation of non-white voters through the creation of minority-majority districts and minority “opportunity” districts.
“You can’t draw a 52-0 map if you’re following the Voting Rights Act,” said a person familiar with the redrawing process who was granted anonymity to discuss internal deliberations.
While the new map could increase Latino representation, congressional districts held by Black and Asian American members were largely untouched, with the exception of the battleground Orange County seats.
“Diluting, cracking and packing Black votes in Texas is how they are achieving their most segregated maps in 60 years, and we were mindful of not doing that,” said Assemblymember Isaac Bryan, a Democrat from Los Angeles.
5. Opportunity knocks in Los Angeles
There are no sweeter words in the English language to Democratic consultants than “a new congressional seat in Los Angeles County.”
The rejiggering of the Southern California map opens the door to an additional district that cuts into the expensive media market and provides a new landing spot for ambitious Los Angeles-area Democrats.
The 38th congressional seat, currently occupied by Orange County Democratic Rep. Linda Sánchez, would move north to include the San Gabriel Valley cities of Baldwin Park and El Monte. Meanwhile, the 41st district, which is now an Inland Empire-centered seat occupied by Calvert, would take on more Southeast Los Angeles County cities such as Downey and Whittier before jutting into parts of Orange County.
Sánchez, who lives in Whittier, could opt to run in the new 41st district that would include her hometown. Meanwhile, Los Angeles Supervisor Hilda Solis is rumored to be eyeing a potential House bid. (The supervisor did not respond to a request for comment.)
6. A new battleground (and probable rematch)
Rep. Darrell Issa will have a fight on his hands if California adopts the proposed map and he decides to run for reelection in 2026.
The new 48th district dilutes the Republican hold over a seat that now sprawls across rural portions of eastern San Diego and Riverside counties. It would add a portion of deep-blue Palm Springs along with purple-trending Escondido and San Marcos and take out GOP-heavy Poway.
Issa, one of the wealthiest members of Congress, won with nearly 60 percent of the vote in 2024. He last faced real competition in 2020, when he ran against Ammar Campa-Najjar in what was then the 50th district. Now, voters are likely getting a rematch.
Campa-Najjar, who since his election defeat ran for mayor of Chula Vista and became an officer in the Naval Reserves , said in a statement obtained by POLITICO that he is “seriously considering” a run against Issa after he clears it with his chain of command and Georgetown University, where he was scheduled to teach in the fall. “Having run against Rep. Issa, I know he’s formidable,” he said. “A Democrat will easily carry Palm Springs, but winning this seat will require competing – and winning – in the battleground portions of San Diego, including Escondido and San Marcos, cities I’ve carried before and helped elect new local leaders.”
A spokesperson for Issa did not respond to a request for comment.
7. Turning the desert blue
In the nearby Inland Empire, Rep. Ken Calvert could face an even tougher slog. The proposed map would change his seat from “safe Republican” to “safe Democratic,” according to a chart circulated by Democratic lawmakers.
Calvert, who lives in deep-red Corona, hasn’t said which district he would run in, but it’s unlikely he would challenge Issa for a blue-leaning seat that includes the most Democratic-leaning areas of Calvert’s current district.
Democrat Will Rollins, an attorney and LGBTQ+ activist with a power base in Palm Springs, is also considering running in the 48th. He challenged Calvert in 2024 and 2022 — losing both times by a handful of percentage points.
Emily Cherniack, a Democratic operative close to Rollins, said he has received numerous phone calls in recent days from donors and party leaders urging him to run a third time. “He’s basically starting at the 50-yard and everyone else is at the five-yard line,” Cherniack said.
Calvert could instead run for a safe red seat in Orange County, although that could lead to an intense primary contest with incumbent GOP Rep. Young Kim. Jason Gagnon, Calvert’s consultant, dismissed rumblings that he might consider running against Kim. Gagnon said Calvert is “100% percent committed to defeating” the redistricting ballot measure and “not interested in any hypotheticals like that.”
8. Carving up Northern California
Redrawn districts in Northern California create a path for state Senate leader Mike McGuire to run for Congress before Democratic Rep. Mike Thompson — whose seat McGuire was widely thought to be eyeing — retires.
McGuire could vie for the new 1st district, which stretches from Santa Rosa northeast all the way to the Nevada border, when term limits force him out of the Legislature next year. Thompson could run for the 4th district and Rep. Jared Huffman could stay in the 2nd district. All three would have the wind of a Democratic registration advantage at their back.
It took a topsy turvy gerrymander to create three Democratic seats in the region. The 2nd district would run all the way from the sparsely populated regions abutting the northern Nevada-California border to California’s North Coast where it would snap up troves of Democrats. The 4th district encompasses much of California wine country but stops just short of McGuire’s home near Santa Rosa, which is captured by a downstretching finger of the 1st district.
McGuire hasn’t revealed plans for his post-statehouse career but has been raising money in an account for the state treasurer’s race that could be transferred to a different contest. A McGuire spokesperson said he was not available for an interview Friday and did not return a request for comment on the 1st district draw.
9. A decision to be made in NorCal
Democratic Rep. Ami Bera was out of the country when the maps dropped, but is likely to seriously consider running for the new 3rd district — which contains a large chunk of his current turf — when he returns, a person close to him who was granted anonymity to speak candidly told POLITICO.
Bera could still run for reelection in his current 6th district. But the Democratic registration advantage there would shrink from 14 percentage points to nine points, and Bera would have the chance to oust Kiley by turning his attention to the 3rd.
In a statement, Bera didn’t rule out running in either district surrounding California’s capital city: “I intend to continue representing the Sacramento region in the next Congress.”
10. Taking one for the team
Some California incumbents had to swallow slightly purpler districts in order to accommodate bluer seats elsewhere, though their sacrifices largely would not put them into any major electoral trouble. Huffman, for example, would see his district morph from a nearly 35 point Democratic advantage to a still-healthy 18.
Rep. Robert Garcia’s district would go from a 34-point Democratic advantage to 10 — and he would pick up Huntington Beach, a MAGA stronghold that would be an incongruous fit for the top Democrat on the oversight committee.
Rep. Scott Peters in the San Diego area would see his district dip from an 18-point Democratic edge to 10 points. Chatting with POLITICO last week, he was sanguine at the prospect of a more challenging district.
“Since Trump’s been on the ballot, I haven’t had hard races,” he said. “But I know how to run a tough race. We’ll be ready for what comes.”
Aaron Pellish, Ben Fox and Jeremy B. White contributed to this report.
CORRECTION: A previous version of this story misstated Rep. Darrell Issa’s political trajectory. He retired from his previous district ahead of the blue wave in 2018.
CORRECTION: A previous version of this story misstated Rep. Darrell Issa’s political trajectory. He retired from his previous district ahead of the blue wave in 2018.
